The Student Loan Ranger

A few longs this week as I don't have time this week to cover anything exciting. Most of these are bottom catching and sup/res plays. They are AAL, BP., BA., NG., BAY and ADM. I have covered the first 3 last week and the predictions are still in line with those. Apologies for the lack of consistency in chart formats - I keep chopping and changing.

Of these, they are all bullish predictions, with the exception of AAL, which I think will continue to drop as of last weeks prediction to a target of 3150.

BAY - British Airways
Up + Targets S=250, M= 300, L= 360

Quite a few things going for BAY at the moment. On a non-technical basis, Lufthansas good profits were taken well by the market, and the decline in the SP of airlines seems to responding a little better to oil prices. US airlines have been OK the past while too. BAY report in May, and the results are expected to be quite good.

From a technical side the downtrend is very well established and has been for well over a year now with few attempts to break out. These comments correspond with the numbers on the chart.

1. BAY has just bounced off a 52 week low - which has been very strong support and resistance going back over 5 years. This is a good sign that this may be the beginning of some consolidation at this range with a view for a reversal.

You will also notice some strong gap ups and bullish engulfing on the candlesticks, the SP has recovered 10% in the past week. During this trend there has been very little bullish movement like this.

Moving averages looking to undercut price in the next few days if continuation seen.

2. Stochastics in oversold range and signal line facing up and crossed over.

3. MACD signal line facing up, crossed over. Negative divergence on histogram and signal lines indicate possible turn around.

4. Bearish directional movement facing down, Bullish directional movement facing up. Line in the middle of the two looking to cross to confirm.

We have some excellent scope for inverse H&S formations on S, M and L terms. EG a move to resistance at 250, and a drop back to new support at 220 - then a move back is is a good short term pattern. If that were to form we would be over half way to a medium term inverse H&S. This is way too far in the future to be accurate of course. I don't have the bollingers on the chart as I don't use them as much, but BAY is also trading the bottom of the range.

On the downside, the resistance line is to be watched so we don't see a repeat of the move 5 weeks ago.

I do think that in the long term, and at this range of prices, that BAY represents a sound long term investment. Volatility in oil prices, as well as infrastructural issues such as T5 are going to affect the SP in the short term. With some good results in May we may see a confirmed pattern reversal. However, in this market, the bottom isn't always the bottom - and the top isn't always the top. I don't think we will see British Airways sub £2 again for a long time - to me this is a £3.5-£4 share.

ADM - Admiral Group
Up (Then down, then back up) + Targets M=850, L=950-1000

Another good jump off the 52 week low I spotted a few days ago at 760. Some seriously bullish movement over the past few days - on progressively lower volume however. Perhaps this is just as long term investors fill their boots on the low.

I think the momentum in the immediate short term may be out of this, I don't like the declining volume or the spinning top - this makes me believe we are still waiting for something. I think we may see a pull back to about 780, then a move past 850. The DM, MACD and Stochastic indicators are good, as are the shorter term EMAs. The Stochastic - while still OK, is bullishly reaching the oversold area - I think that could be the sign of the pullback but don't quote me on that.. or anything else on here lol.

Can't comment on sector issues or financials - as even good ones in this industry aren't being taken all that well right now. I think we have scope in this share as high as 1100 - but I would rather hold BAY ahead of this.

Retrospectively this is more of a medium/short play as there are plenty of signals there.

NG. National Grid

I've just scrapped covering this as I write - the range isn't big enough for me. Look for a break of 750 before entering. Big trend resistance which could then form a brilliant head and shoulders pattern. Some good indicators, but this one just isn't for me.

BA. looking good, the chart from last week shows the resistance it needs to break - so use that as a guideline. Technical aspects - well, the indicators, are looking very healthly. Price target in excess of 500. Very small range however, and may only represent a quick 5-7% at max. Watch a downside break for support circa 455.

BP. is consolidating between 570 and 580 at the moment. This is an entry at a clear and confirmed break of 582 for me. This should be supported in the short term at 570, however some neg divergence on the MACD might test this theory. I still think that entry to BP. is at long support of 510, or a break of 580 with range trading in accordance with that. Short if this drops below 570 - but be careful for the old bounce bounce break.

We now also have the support of the 200 day EMA for long term. Direction movement says bear up, bull down so we might see a pullback, but within the consolidation range.

Some speculative plays on FDI at all time highs and good diamond mine chat. EEN also looking to test resistance at highs of 370.

Like I said, not covering much this week - too busy to watch the movements.

From the portfolio, SEO issue a trading statement at the AGM on Monday. I'm really hoping for some positivity here, as my money has been tied up in an awful decision I made back at the start of March. I would love to see 1.3p for some profit and a quick exit - but Stanelco have a history for dissapointment so more realistically I'm looking to cut losses at 1.05p.

DES results and statement out next week at some point. My holding is £2400 in these, and I will hold into the summer holidays with these I think.