Not really watching the markets a great deal because I'm not trading today. I'm going through the motions of sorting out a trading account with thinkorswim. I'm test driving their platform this afternoon and so far I'm impressed.
This setup is a lot more efficient than running CMC and Quotetracker. Also I'll save $35 a month because I no longer need QT and IQFeed.
Watchlist top on left monitor, internals bottom on right monitor.
Strong opening, looks like the SP is looking to clear 850 cleanly. 860 could be sticky though. Internals are strong featuring bullish continuation patterns. New X support at $32, new BAC support at $7 but I don't trust either, especially BAC.
Is there anything more enjoyable in this World than getting up on a bitterly freezing cold January morning and driving 20 minutes to install your brokers platform on a computer with no history of prior installation (and the client ID files that go with it) - just so you can close out a position that has now exceeded entry risk by over 5 times?
Email me if you know of anything more fun than that. Just so you know GBPUSD has done nothing but rip overnight.
Update: I have closed the account with CMC. Look back later for a potentially humourous montage featuring the logos of iii.co.uk, CMC markets and the Union Jack and me looking victorious of course.
Well I think I am maybe a little bit more composed than I was a few hours ago. Although I don't know if I should still be angry.
Here is an image that summarises how I have been feeling the past few hours, after my platform went awol on me. I cannot connect to the internet when my platform is on, and my platform has an update that needs to install (which I have already done by the way). The update itself stops itself from downloading, meaning I cannot log in.
I have a position open, short GBPUSD and I could be seriously exposed if I can't close it at a loss as the system and everything else cut out as I was placing my stop limit orders. The only websites I can access are Google or it's subsidiaries - including blogger.
Looking to follow up on yesterdays good day with another consistent trading day. I felt yesterday that I reaped the benefits of focusing on a smaller pool of stocks, and by paying attention on the market internals - which were the basis of my entries.
I did however cash out too soon on CSCO (by .30) and BAC (by .80!), and I also missed a straight forward $3 move in X. I left the market with an hour and a half to go so I could play 5-a-side. I also missed my target in NUE <$38. This looks like selling hard. Today my goal is to ride my winners down with full risk exposure in an attempt to increase my bottom line. Here are the levels I'm watching today:
BAC - $6, $6.98, $5.40, $6.40 X - <$29, $32, $30.50 CSCO - $16, $16.50, $15.40, $15 NUE - Continuation moves under $38 CME - $155, $175 RIG - I won't trade it, but it looks like $51 is a key level in the short term.
CSCO chart, 30min.
After yesterday, I am extremely bearish on CME BAC NUE and X. CSCO showed good relative strength at times, and if anything I'm watching is going to go up today I think it will be CSCO. If CME drops $155 and X drops $29 clearly, then these should decline rapidly.
Overnight the 500 climbed steadily and looks like it's resting around 835. 800~850 remains the range in the short term. Any moves out of this will provide a spark for a take off or crash landing.
Forex market technical analysis:
EURJPY Really followed through the inverse head and shoulders formation on the hourly chart which had a measured move of 119.5. This level was hit precisely and the next level of support I'm looking for on retracement is 117.
EURJPY chart, 60min.
GBPUSD has surged surprisingly well off yesterdays double bottom and broke through 1.4. I am looking to enter long on a pullback to 1.40 as this represents new support. Next resistance 1.45
GBPUSD chart, 60min.
EURUSD did well yesterday as the dollar weakened. Broke the short term downtrend and moved from 1.30580 to 1.33271. I am awaiting a pullback to support at 1.30500.
EURUSD chart, 60min.
GBPAUD has also broke short term down trend as it looks hit resistance at 2.1450. The chart is fairly dull here, just watch for that resistance level.
Updates and charts to follow intra-day.
Update 13:45 (08:45US) Interesting pre market here. X jumped to $33 but has settled back below $32. Little bit of a gap in BAC currently $6.35. CSCO tapped $16.50 before pulling back sharply. No red on the screen yet although NUE is dicing with death.
Market about to open update Something fishy going on here. Gapping up here quite a bit, most stocks at resistance levels. Looking for a sell off.
Update 15:24 (10:24US) Choppy morning. Went long CSCO on breakout retracement at $16.51, stopped out for .47 - was a nice exit as it sold to .29. Currently back up at $16.5 but market looking weak and confused. Watching to enter X at $32.2.
BAC showing relative strength in tight consolidation range.
Update 17:11(12:11US) Rerally choppy today. Internals keep ranging in tight channels. CSCO showed some balls with a nice run to $16.90 without me in the seat. BAC broke range above $6.4 but hasn't done anything to make me want to trade it.
I'm short GBPAUD and long EURJPY as per my TA from earlier. Both positions winners at the moment.
Waiting for a reveral around 18:20 my time.
Update 20:03(I don't care what time US) A flake causes a snowball which causes an avalanche. That is currently my sentiment towards everything right at this second. A phone call. A dodgy cable. Disconnected. Broker platform crash. FX platform crash. Quotetracker crash. Data source crash. Internet only working for Google websites (including this).
I'm in an FX trade right now and I have no idea how much I'm losing because I can't connect to anything. It's all tits up and I'm very pissed off at the moment. All because of a stupid damn cable that the owner just will not fix.
Ok it's 12 hours since that FX trade, and despite closing it this morning I'll start a new intra-day post. Looks like I caught a nice exit on the GBPUSD short, here is the chart, I'm seeing a basing at this price and will look for breaks out of this consolidation range;
I am also watching a descending triangle in the S&P with support at 800. Todays resistance around the 835 mark.
As I said yesterday, today I will be watching CSCO CME NUE X and BAC.
For some entertainment relief, check out this Pantene shampoo advert featuring Mylene Klass, and then for your consideration, Daft Punks 'Aerodynamic' video.
Updates to follow during the day
Update 14:00 (09:00US) Before the bell we have BAC opening strongly with pre-market prices around $6.50. I will look to enter long at around $6.30 depending on internals and if the 500 breaks this descending triangle. CSCO mid-ranging at $15.85 looking to short or go long at $16 depending on market again. X mid-range, watching the key levels at $32, $29 and $31 here.
EURJPY breaking long from an inverse head and shoulders on the hourly chart. EURUSD hitting resistance around 1.309. 1.38 the key level on GBPUSD today.
Nothing chartworthly until the bell.
Update 14:43 (09:44US) Strong opening, BAC ripping to $6.83, CSCO at $16.25. All green on the screen. X lagging a little and is approaching $32 into the 09:50 reversal period. Internals weakening. Looking for pullback for entries.
Update 16:00 (11:00US) Just scalped out a nice trade in BAC. Internals were weakening with bearish continuation patterns while BAC began to top out at gap resistance circa $6.98. I was hesistant to short given it went to highs 3 bars in a row, then came 3 consecutive lower highs and some sellers. Shorted at $6.90 with cover at $6.81 for +$0.09. Nice exit as it has bounced off up there on the 20EMA with internals showing early reversal patterns.
Lots of buyers at $6.84/84 today so watch that level on further pullbacks. Should really have added to my position on double top retest of $6.90 but started blogging instead. Price is now $6.75 so there was more to be made, but I'm happy with the outcome.
Update 16:30 (11:30US) CSCO hit support and resistance level at $16.50 and has dropped off .20c so far. Missed the trade by focusing too much on BAC. Internally there is an ascending triangle on TRIN with established downtrend in advancers and sellers in the top volume stocks. Which means we will probably see a violent surge or casual decline.
Hesistant to take more positions until the 500 is a little more decisive and some leaders break their consolidation ranges.
EUR showing good strength against JPY and USD.
Update 17:20(12:17US) Snooze central here. Everything going sideways in 5 cent channels. Will wait for post lunch action. Would like to short CSCO at $16.50 or long at $16.
Listening to 'Mirrored' by Battles this afternoon. Pretty decent elevator/trading music.
Update 18:15(13:15US) Caught a nice short time trade in CSCO at last. Looked like $6.45 was going to be the best price for a short so filled there with a stop at $6.523. Rode it down to $6.30 intraday support area for an exit of +$0.15.
CSCO has shown great relative strength today, but with severley weakening internals and the rest of the market getting pulled down, it was a nice small risk place to short. Ideally should have held with limit fill at $16.05 but we'll see how the day pans out. Still feels like I'm taking things off the table too quickly.
BAC really struggling here, and I may look for entry at $6.30 long. X now under $30, would like £29 flat for long.
Market normally rallies up/down at 18:30 so waiting for that while listening to Daft Punks Alive 2007 CD loudly and with intent to rave.
It's late Sunday night and I've been doing some more TA. I spent quite a bit of time watching the FX markets now, trading off a demo account at FXCM.
Anyway been watching GBP/USD and have shorted on a nice technical setup and I'm currently up a decent amount so will think about closing out before I go to bed. 24 year lows on the pound is too good an opportunity.
Also noticed a delay from CMC on the FX spot prices so will look into potential exploits. I think it's probably because the desks aren't manned at this hour.
FXCM top, CMC bottom. Taken at same time.
Update (10 mins later)
Wow!
Well I barely clicked post before I closed out that trade, what a sensational drop that was. I've exited after 10 minutes for +£86.78 net of a £10k position
Setup, entry and exit:
Shorted at 1.3705 with cover at 1.3587. Double tops at the 200EMA are amongst the best setups in this market. As I write this GBPUSD is at 1.3562/1.3567 and going down which means I could have made quite a bit more. Either way when a trade goes so quickly in your favour there's no harm in taking a sizeable profit, especially when you're about to go to bed. I'll sleep well tonight.
Just a couple of tickers to keep an eye on this week - CSCO NUE CME. I'll also be watching BAC and X as these have become my favourites for TA intra-day.
Cisco - CSCO Watching this as a short term trade. $15 has held well the past 4 days in the face of some heavy selling. Depending on how the market goes in the early stages of next week, you could catch some nice trades at $15 or $16. I would be long over $16 (short depending on internals and price action) and short under $15 (long depending on internals and price action). These either way setups are good to have leading into the week. I remain bearish on everything though.
Nucor - NUE Short term resistance at $43 and gap price at $37.5. That's really what I'm using to trade this. After double topping at 200EMA at $47.5 I am bearish with targets around $33.5. A drop over the gap price on volume would signal a nice entry as would entries off $43.
CME Group - CME Support and resistance levels at $235r $190r $175r $160s. Watching a descending channel in shorter time frames with 3 times tested support around $160. I am bearish but open to change. Looking to trade the support and resistance bands here, otherwise a short under $155 on volume.
BAC prices this week Resistance $6.2 Support $5.4 Key levels $6.02, $5.85-5.95.
X prices this week Resistance $33.5 Support $29 Key levels $32, $31
Retests at these levels a good opportunity to enter trades. Will not be watching any other stocks this week, however I do have an alert set on Coke (KO) at $41 for a range trade opportunity to $47.
Getting humped today so pulling the plug. Lost out straight off the bat on an Alcoa trade that was wrongly position due to a typo on my risk calculator. So that ended up being nearly a $100 loser after costs which is simply unacceptable.
Elsewhere the rest of the stocks are just whipping everywhere despite a relatively calm decline in the indices. Not a day to be trading.
This is what happens when you swing from a record profit, to a record loss in 12 months. This is also what happens when shareholder equity is eliminated and the Goverment controls 70% of one of the biggest banks in the World:
PS this drop is from this morning only. You could buy this for 45p on Friday afternoon, it has dropped 70% today! Personally I am delighted at this drop as this is what the UK stock market deserves for being illiquid and rigged. Reminds me of the FNM FRE collapses. CMC were clearly not chuffed with this mornings volatility, and increased their spread from about .1p to over 1p at one point - a 10% spread on the UKs most traded stock - LOL! No wonder I don't trade UK stocks.
Elsewhere the FTSE gave up 4100, then 4080 and is currently thinking about dropping to 4000. S&P has been slow today as predicted, and has sold to 840.
Update 5 min later: CMC spread went to 33% and RBS has been suspended. Oh dear!
I have just spent the past while programming another add on to my Excel trade management system. I'm trying to find some info on using the integrated VB program to make part of my spreadsheet an executable file. It would save resources on my comp by having a small app running instead of starting up (or keeping up) Excel to calculate the numbers. I'm pretty decent with mental arithmetic as it is but this would just make it a little bit more mechanical for me and add more discipline to my game;
Anyway it's just a little risk reward calculator that works out my size and whether I should take the trade based on targets and stops. When I enter a trade retrospectively using the form it does this, but I don't want to have to enter and then delete those values. I have added my commission costs as part of the risk - however these are variable, and for calculation purposes are at the top end of what I would be paying for around $5000 worth of stock.
For those interested in aesthetics I have redesigned the entry form. It's a lot cleaner cut and more inspiring given that it features a made up logo of a made up company that I designed. Cool eh? I'm sure most traders don't care about that, but it's something I'm into.
Do they get The Big Issue in the States? If not you won't understand the joke in the title bar added for humour.
College was my priority today so I didn't get to sit down till about 5pm GMT. Backfilling took ages too. Anyway the day was quite choppy, BAC and C getting slain again. The volume on these two was immense with almost about a billion going through the system in the past 2 days.
Anyway I had one trade, and it was in BAC. As I sat I noticed a basing pattern with the days low at $7 exactly which was tested 5 times on the 5min charts.
There was a significant amount of buying at this level. Anyway it started to form a wedge, and as the internals strengthened and the market started to move, it broke the wedge and I took an entry at $7.18. I covered a little later at $7.31 for +$0.13. Could have held on for double the profits but no regrets about the trade. Exit ended being alright as the sellers took control into the close of $7.15.
Didn't really watch anything else today. Most of the others ground up with chop.
Sell sell sell. That's the word. The lustre of the new year has worn off and the recession continues to weigh heavy on the markets. Quite a lot of stuff happening this morning.
UK sold off heavy after everyone and their gran was sacked from their jobs yesterday. Steve Jobs is stepping down at AAPL on health fears so I expect further drops there. USO starting to look like it might base and run a bit so I'll keep an eye on oils today. Bank of America getting a heap of dough from Uncle Sam. And the stock that first caught my eye in the US markets, Ciena (CIEN) is looking like a decent technical setup at the moment.
OK pre-market AAPL is down $6 so that's definately in play today.
Levels to watch; X @ $30 CIEN @ $7 SPYs @ 837>846
Realistically I don't think CIEN will hold today. Also watching RIMM and AMZN on AAPL news. Will RIMM rise if their competitor is looking weak, or will they follow suit?
Update 13:40 (08:40US) Looking like X is going to open up at $31 here. $30 is a very nice entry price. It's forming a double top from yesterday afternoon at the 200MA so I would really like this to pull back and provide a good r:r entry here.
Going to watch this AMZN channel at $49.2-$48.3 and look to trade the breakout as I don't feel comfortable trading this narrow a range.
Update 15:50 (10:50US) Apple trade:
Shoter term. Waited for the price to break the short term high and went short with volume. Covered at 50MA for +$0.76
AMZN rocketeering at the moment. AA trying to hold ST support at $8.7. X holding at $29 and eager for this to pull back to $30 for a short entry.
Update 16:54 (11:54 US) X trade:
Short term trade. Shorted at $30.97 to cover at $30.56 for +$0.41. Prior support is new resistance. Caught it just below $30 after a fake to $30.15. Covered at moving average with time and sales support. Was a nice exit as it bounced a bit higher. Has since made a lower high at resistive 50EMA so will look for another entry at $30 later in the day, hopefully this time it will sell more convincingly to $29.
AMZN strong, AAPL consolidating; Internals consolidating but showing weakness; DRYS forming a pennant and looking for a breakout there in next 15 minutes.
Update 18:45 (13:45US) Market isRIPPING !!
Move happened while I was making some dinner. Lots of volume came in and shot this hard as it dropped to slightly lower lows.
I'm sure all the charts look good but these ones look the best to me.
Man the market is still going after these screens!
Market getting pounded today. Nothing looking good for a long.
IINA.Z 837 IIND.Z 2148 TRIN.Z 2.4
I was waiting for an entry into WYN around $7.00, but it didn't feel right and has dropped right back to $6.84. I was looking for a bounce at support and 20MA on the daily chart at the $7 mark but it's not giving me an easy entry.
X has sold off hard today, the pullback to the 10MA at 10:20 this morning was a good entry short for a low risk trade. SPY has broken down a short term descending triangle and I would low look for todaysresistance to be at 878.
I'm waiting on a trade inXRX with entry around $8.05 and have included the daily on the charts above.
Update 18:15 More selling. S&P 500 has looked pretty nice on the 5 minute intra-day. Quite a few clear setups. The best one is this ascending wedge into resistance. Currently predicting a formation of an ascending triangle with resistance circa 878 as mentioned earlier in the day.
Elsewhere WYN just won't give me the setup I want so I've set an alert on that and will check later. XRX is pulling back nicely
Internals looking a little stronger post lunch but still very bearish, would like to see some volume breaking out over 878. The market could just drift along until next Tuesday morning, where I will be looking to take a position overnight leading into inauguration.
Update 19:45 Selling continues as several stocks make new lows on the day. 500 continues to show continuation patterns. Internals continue their decline.
Cleanest setup of the day goes to AMZN short @ 52.5:
Watching AA, DRYS, AXP and RIMM at the moment. TSO also catching my eye.
TSOhas had a great run from December but is now approaching old support as resistance at $15.00. I anticipate a pull back here to around $13 soon.
The AA trade I'm waiting for is still looking good around $10.80, where it has formed a double bottom on the intra-day chart. It is currently consolidating in an S/R range between $11 and $10.80 and I am looking for a break and a retest of $11 for an entry. I would also consider scaling in at $10.80.
DRYS continued to explode today, and in the short term is just about to slip from an ascending wedge after not making new highs on the day. I am hesitant to enter because of a pennant which could be penetrated soon too on the short side. It's $16.70 at the moment with some sellers coming in by the looks of things.
TSO and RIMM looking like they are at the end of their run. RIMM especially at $48.
Charts to follow
Update 19:00
Pretty quiet day here, market is range trading and not much coming on the screen. RIMM is attempting to break the overhead on a surge of intra-day volume so I'm watching that.
Elsewhere the stock that keeps on giving (DRYS) is having a nice breakout of the pennant I mentioned earlier.
Nice pop on DRYS here with the fastline providing the bounce. Bit of buying coming in too after the pullback on declining volume.
Let's see if it makes new highs into close.
I'm also watching the $55 area on AMZN, and will enter long if we see a pullback from todays surge at that price.
20:30 Just watched the time and sales of AA and DRYS as the market dumped into the weekend. Profit taking all round by the looks of things.
12:50 pm and I'm just sorting out my new monitor for today. Been watching the SPY trade in a consolidation range between 900 and 910 this morning, it's just dropped below it and is down quite a bit now on yesterday. I would like to see further pull backs today before a continuation of the rally as we started the trading year.
AA, KO and RIMM are catching my interest at some key technical levels and I'll post the charts later. Going out for lunch with a mate so should be back for the bell.
Updates to follow..
15:00 Little late back from lunch, uninspiring opening here, waiting for a reversal in a few things. Here's a chart of the SPYs so far today. It's been pretty straight forward, the market is giving some good information today.
Also here's X looking interesting on the daily chart...
There is a nice longer term inverse head and shoulders formation with a resistive neckline at around $42 here. However since December another head and shoulders, this time the bearish formation, has formed on the current upward trendline. That, coupled with the topping at the 50MA make me feel that X could drop to $35 today, and potentially $30 in the medium term. I'm waiting for some volume to come into X, as when it does I think I will take an entry at these levels with a short term target of $40 and higher based on good trade management.
AA is popping off the lows this morning at $10.60. I am hesistant to enter here as it it still very bearish on most timeframes. This new low is also stopping me from considering an entry until I see some reversal action.
Coke (KO) is currently consolidating between $41 and $47 which both represent good entries long and short. In a shorter timeframe it's chopping out a pennant. I would like to trade this channel but only if I get the prices I want.
It was predictable and I was pleased to see RIMM top out at $48 yesterday. I am now looking for a pullback to $43 for an entry based on this chart:
19:50 Market caught a nice double bottom bounce at 897 and has jumped to 907 quite quickly. Waiting to see if it can break this on the third attempt today. Earlier, the market responded unfavourably to an Obama speech, which I was surprised at. I anticipate some strong surges north around the time he takes his seat in the office and I'll be actively seeking trades at that time.
AA is ripping it up at $11.30 after bouncing strongly off $10.60 which was 20 cents lower than where I thought it would jump. Not much volume in it though.
The thing that made me post an update however was DRYS, it has just blasted off in the past hour. If I were in I would probably take a sizeable portion off the table and look for a re-entry at $14.60. There's an hour to go and people will be looking to close out so I think it would be wise. I've spent the past hour and a half on a report so I missed this opportunity, but never fear, the market will provide me with these kinds of moves all the time!
Check that consolidation at the 20MA before some volume came in at it went for gold.
I got back from my holiday refreshed and ready to take on 2009 with my trading. While I was away I read 2 excellent books "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas and "Learn to trade.." by Toni Turner. Douglas' book is brilliant, as I know I have to work on my mental attributes as a trader and this book should provide my with a good start. I'll be buying his first book in the next few days.
The Toni Turner book was a bit more simple in it's content but I really liked it. I was well written and full of quality information, a lot of stuff I didn't really even know about. Hopefully I can apply what I've learned in these books into my trading.
I've also spent the past while checking out my old posts etc, and have now formalised a concise and full trading plan with rules for me to follow. It's mostly trade management based, but also covers position sizing, risk (and accepting it), regularity, entry rules, profit taking, record keeping and a few general principles about the mental parts of my game.
I've also subscribed to iqfeed for quotetracker, and I'm currently trying to learn the features of QT.
Anyway I've been going through some stocks and doing some quick TA. I'm basically looking at a core list of 11 stocks that I'll be trading for the foreseeable future. For reference they are AA, AMZN, AXP, BAC, C, MON, RIG, DRYS, RMBS, TSOand X.
Anyway I'm just going to post the more interesting dailies;
This is the Alcoa chart (AA). I'm writing in my journal that I will consider an entry here at the green horizontal support area of $10.80 if some volume comes in. I would like to see the volume decrease with a pullback to this area before moving off the 20MA. My initial target is $12.
I'm looking for some volume in X before it breaks out above $40 either off the 20MA or the short term trend line. Potentially forming a C&H. A good R:R ratio is at around the $30 area.
