The Student Loan Ranger

Pre-market banter:
Much doom and gloom overnight, although there has been a slight rise in the futures I believe this will be a continuation flag as I continue to be bearish this week. Earnings on APOL today which is in a nice consolidation range at the moment between $79 and $75. Any breach of these gives an entry so it's something I'll keep an eye on premarket.

Oil still below $50 which should help my open trade in EXC today, although this could jump at any point. Depending on the opening price I may or may not adjust my stops and limits here.

I wonder if there will be any life or rebound in LNC today. Elsewhere I'm going to start tracking LDK as I like the chart setups there.

I also signed up at Covester yesterday so check it out. It's a site that automatically tracks your trades and has a good community of solid traders, so it should be a good thing.


Charts, setups and news to follow after the bell.

Update before the bell:
Looks like we're going to open higher here, potential for a small gap. However I remain bearish given that the futures are currently ascending wedging into the 200EMA on the 15minutes as part of a bear flag.

Update 15:42 GMT:
LONG APOL @ $79.15 - 123 Setup
SHORT HD @ $22.82 - Bear flag setup

Not too confident on HD at the moment, tightening stops. Charts to follow, kind of busy atm.

Update 18:00 GMT:
Real real ugly day for trading, really choppy and we just had a big pop that closed me out of my HD. My HD was looking pretty good for a while but the sector picked up as the market churned away. Closed out of my APOL too for a small loss. Didn't really enjoy trading these stocks today and I kind of feel I am a much better trader when I scalp on size.

Perfect chart setup on X to show later.

Update 16:40 GMT
You know it looks like I've shorted the only stocks on the market that are prepared to rally 2.5% off lows today. 1 cent off my EXC stop here.

Late in day chart:

Looking at the short side today by the looks of it. No car bailout for GM and Chrysler, Oil dropping close to $50, G-20 pessimism on the global economy etc. All of this ties in quite nicely to my anticipated shorts in EXC, DY and DE in particular.

If you check back you'll notice this rally in the past 2 weeks or so has formed a bear flag in a lot of stocks, so some selling today could see a sustained downward move in the markets. For this reason I am bearish for the start of this week and will look to scale into shorts in EXC, DY, DE and possibly FCX too.

Premarket we are down in the futures but holding support levels at 7550 on /YM and 790 on the /ES. Today I am looking at resistance of 800 and 810 on the S&P. Both the Dow and S&P are at the S2 pivot points premarket.

Just spied some excellent FX trades overnight too.

Charts, updates and trade sheets to follow (if I make any)
Update 5pm GMT BST!
Very tempted to scale into a long on both DE and DY here based on a nice gap down to support areas;



Elsewhere I have scaled into a short in EXC at $44.91. Has consolidated around the pivot points today and I think I may hold this for a few days. Currently targeting $42.50 with stops $45.75. I'll post the trade sheet later tonight. Working at 4:1 ratio here which is ok, but feel my entry could have been timed better.

Evening update 22:50 GMT
Still holding my EXC short into tomorrow. I'm not so sure if this is a great move but time will tell. I am bearish on the EXC chart however there are quite a few big caps holding steady at support after todays gap down. I would really like to see this consolidation form a bear flag, with continued selling for the rest of the week. At present I have no adjusted my stops or limits in EXC as I'm going to let this run it's course.

This is my intra-day analysis of EXC. Felt really good when that double top at $44.10 went in. There was a strong high volume close today whiuch I put down to covering. BTW I left at 8pm to play football tonight so I missed the last hour of trading.

Elsewhere LNC got creamed, down nearly 40% today on news announcement. Nice sell off to $38 on FCX, a price level I mentioned. BNI was scalpable too.

I mentioned DE and DY earlier in the day, and I'm glad I didn't scale in as both show signs of weakness. DE did intra-day double bottom at $31.80 and got a bump off from that but I remain bearish until it's over $32.50

Trade of the day goes to one I missed; LDK. Perfect gap closing 123 against the 200+20EMAs on a dead cross...


These trades are great, but unless you're watching the stock at the time you will not catch these.

Penultimately here is my paper blotter from today. These were all limit orders except POT and UNP which I held short over the weekend. The highlighted BNI trade was a limit order gone mad (problem with stop/limit order), a simple mistake that must be avoided in the future.

Elsewhere I was up $510 on the FX account which brings it to over $20k - a 100% return in 5 weeks.

And finally,




A weapon of a tune from Royksopp!

Not quite a reprise of Crystal Balling but something in the same mould. Just gonna post a few charts now - gonna upload more and explain what I see happening in the short term later this weekend. Will also be putting up some charts of WMT, BNI, FCX, EXC, DY, DE and AAUK so stay tuned as there is a nice mix of setups both long and short here. Good luck to Scotland against Holland in the footie tonight.

Sunday update:
OK Holland destroyed us, we need Boyd back and the Caldwell goal to stand. Anyway here are the charts, I was going to include the AAUK chart but it's not that great and only needs one piece of advice: Sell it under $8.25 to $7.75 or more.

Let's rock and roll here...
LNC Lincoln National Corp
I am feeling pretty bullish here given the ascending wedge, inverse head and shoulders and strong move to close the gap. $10 also represents a strong psychological number that I expect to hold on the retracement. I do expect a pullback on Monday morning to $10 given the gap has been closed (some peoples targets on a long).

I will be long at $10 off the moving averages and support line with 3 profit targets: $13.25, $14.00 and $15.10

I will exit or short if possible at a failure of the moving averages, support line and medium term trendline currently in the $9 region.


RTN Raytheon Co
Bullish here too, really like this chart. Full support of the moving averages, nice MACD and stochastics and a good level gap.

I will look to enter long on these conditions;

1. Retracement to gap price between $37.75 and $38.25
2. A break of $40
3. A retest of $40 as support after a pullback from the other gap price at $41.
4. Favourable price action at $39

I will look to exit or short on these conditions;

1. Resistance at $41.60
2. Breakdown of gap prices
3. Dead cross on EMAs under $37

BNI Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.
Mixed bag of a chart here. It is currently at the resistance trendline both long term and short term channels and in an awkward trading range between S/R levels. Currently forming a nice bull flag with a pullback on declining volume. Positive divergence in the indicators which is a good sign.

Long;

1. Over $63
2. Retest of $60 as support based on 123
3. Off the 200ema

Short/exit;

1. $65 looks to have some S/R clout
2. Failure of $60 region as support

DY Dycom Industries Inc.
Pretty thinly traded stock here but a decent setup either way. Currently at a resistance level at ~$6.10. Has established some support in the $5.30 area which I will use as my entry. I currently expect a pullback as we are oversold on both indicators. Volume has been quite good the past 2 days which also leads me to think there may be profit taking soon.

Long;

1. Retest of $6.10 as support
2. Pullback to $5.30 for optimum setup (123 with MA support)
   

Short/Exit;

1. $6.75 is the measured move for the ascending triangle and 123 setup.
2. Failure of $6.00 with dead cross on 20/50 EMAs

WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Very easy setup here. A couple of 123s into the current range of $52.25-$53. This setup needs minimal explanation.

Long;

1. Scale in long at $52.55
2. Long over $53
3. Long on retest of $53 as support

Exit;

1. Measured move at $54
2. Failure of $52
3. Potential to scale in short at $53 depending on market conditions if you are a scalper

FCX Freeport-Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc
Gold futures related trade here on quite a decent setup. Nice strong base formed in January with a current support level of $31 in the medium term and $38 in the short term. I am however bearish on FCX right now, given it's proximity to the 200EMA on the daily chart and ascending wedge on the hourly.

Couple of gaps to look out for here too, short term at $41 and $39. We are looking negative on the indicators, including volume for me.

Long;

1. Scale in long at $39
2. Long on break and retest of $43
3. Long term trade entry at $31, not for a while though
   

Short/Exit (favourable);

1. Breakdown of $41
2. Breakdown of support line on ascending wedge
3. Failure of 50EMA

DE Deere & Co
Also looking bearish on the daily chart at DE. On the hourly I basically see another ascending wedge that is the flag of a bear flag. We are currently at the long term resistance trendline with negatively diverging indicators and a rise on declining volume. We have also just filled the gap and I expect a sell off from here.

Long;

1. I am not looking to take a long position in DE at any point at the moment

Short (favourable)

1. $36 if you can get it based on gap closing double top at all resistance levels
2. Failure of $34
3. Failure of short term support line
4. Looking first for $30 (double top measure) then $29 (solid base here)

A short at $36 in DE represents the best setup this week. With stops at $36.20 it is essentially a 30:1 risk:reward setup in your favour. You cannot refuse these trades.


I could not be any more bearish on EXC right now. Bear flag setup into a strong resistance area with the 200EMA pressing down hard. Extreme negative divergence, rise on declining volume with oversold stochastics. I am very confident that this will fail this week, but I must be prepared to change my outlook should the market tell me otherwise.

Long;

1. The only long I will take is a support of $46 after a breakout with 200EMA support on good volume.

Short;

1. Right now.
2. Anywhere above $45.75
3. Looking for <$43

Very confident this will fail.




Should be a good week for trading. I will be experimenting with pivot points this week and will report next weekend with the results as it is something I would like to incorporate into my arsenal.

Crazy figures on my paper account meant I've reset it back to $100k as I don't remember trading the futures for over $1mil this morning. Anyway I'm scalping out FAZ, POT and have taken a longer term short position in COG. Solars are performing well today with FSLR SOL & co doing a good job of fronting up the NYSE leaders list. I shorted COG based on a channel breakdown after a 65% move in March so far.

Market is dumping a lot at the moment, UNP made it over $44 which was surprising, but has tailed off as this is the price where there is good overhead. I would really like to see $43 hold here, and it will be quite bearish should this fail.


Long term POT has been really sideways but today I noticed a top quality trade on the short term POT chart today. I speak about '123s' a lot, here is an absolute text book example in the 2day 2min POT with a little explanation.


First up is the overhead resistance at $86.50 and this is our starting point. Earlier today we gapped up to this overhead and then retraced to a gap and former resistance level around $84.20. At this point there was an improving MACD and bullish stochastics, as well as the supportive power of the 200EMA which to me represented a good value entry.

However this is not a point at which I would look to enter a 123. The immense volume that lead to the breakout of the horizontal resistance at $86.50 was the first indicator that the following trade was on the cards;

1. 123 setup where prior resistance is new support
2. Breakout level = $86.50, Recent support level = $84.20, Target difference = $2.30. Scale 1/4 of your position at the breakout with an initial target of $86.50+$2.30=$88.80. $0.25 stop represents a 1:9.2 risk:reward trade.
   
3. Buy remainder of position based on 123 setup when the price retests the former resistance level at $86.50 with a price target of $88.80
4. Also note the forming bearish wedge is in close proximity to our target area - therefore you can expect a technical sell off at this area too.

Anyway you can see that this was textbook and hit it on the nose with todays high at $88.81.

Update later

Nice trading in GS recently if you're quick enough.

Nice chart and range in AA here..


Drawndown on my paper account at the moment so looking for some nice scalps in the futures this afternoon. Not watching too many stocks right now but will evaluate the situation when back in the black. Down $2800 just now.

Close
Up $7500 holding quite a lot of dow into the close short. Profit highs at $12k, lows at $5k so quite a swing today. About $2k on commish too, around 250 fills.

Premarket banter

Couple of interesting charts catching my eye today. These charts are pretty big, but I think they're worth checking out in full view.


XEL at important support and resistance levels today after a major bull flag in yesterdays trading. Quite a lot of buying going on here so this is a potential breakout trade. Really will have to keep an eye on the health of the market and sector to see if this will pull through or not. I would be hesitant to short it here just now.


I really like the NWL chart here. Everything about it shows strength to me just now and I would like to see this hit $7.50 before retracing to $7.00 for an entry long. Lots of volume, great MACD, moving average support at all levels and a series of bullish technical patterns en route.


Lots of bull flagging lately on AA on immense volume and a nice break of a long term downtrend (see daily). Needs to crack $7.70 to catch my eye long, and I would consider an entry at around $7.00 if I could get it. Bullish.


Another brilliant chart on UNP. There is a lot going on here. First off this bounce into the resistance line at $42 is part of a bear wedge and volume has generally been declining. However the rectangles over the past day have been nice and tradable and offer a good platform (along with Moving averages and nice MACD) for a run to $44. My plan here would be to enter either at $41 on a pullback off the overhead, or a retest of $42 after a breakout.



The DIA trade is similar to UNP. You can see a similar rectangle here with support at $76. This within the support resistance range of 77-78 so keep an eye out for those 3 prices here today.


Not much happening here in EWT except the most tradable chart of all time. Not looking for a trade here today just think the progression out of a down trend and into these consolidation bands is something all traders should look out for when trying to establish whether a stock is really ready to reverse.

Premarket the futures are mostly consolidating, would like to see oil either drop $53 or beat $54 today.

Charts and intra-day news etc to follow..

Update 15:00 GMT

Very indecisive opening today. Lots of stocks gapping down to support levels and then moving on to resistance. UNP was a perfect example, as it gapped down, shot up to a resistance level with a double top at a bear wedge resistance zone. I traded this long on a pullback with an entry at $41.21 and same candle exit at $41.61. Should have held as it's now at $41.80, same problem as ever. This trade worked from the second I entered it which was satisfying.

Anyway I'm out of day trades for the week so I'm switching to paper for the rest of the week.


Update closing bell:

Was bearish most of today on paper, shorting on size in a series of nice scalps in futures and equities. Pretty easy trading after about 6pm here.

Best trade was probably shorting the 20 year bonds (/ZB) after that eruption an hour or so before close.

Elsewhere I'm clearly still operating in scalp mode as my swing trade in UNP ended up with highs at $42.39 (sold at $41.60). Got to let the swing trades run.

Why does my network always fail on important trading days?

Choppy opening here today, was looking for some trades in POT, XLE and RVBD but the opening and lack of connection stopped it. Charts and updates to follow as I look for trades.

Update evening time..

Hard day to trade today, I was bearish all day and didn't trust the rally. I had 2 trades today, both micro losers and if I'm honest I shouldn't have taken them in the first place.

COG Entry and exit.

I was bearish on this triple top and saw weakness in the oil and gas plays. These were really extended all day. I took a small hit after tightening my stop as it started to show good strength towards the ceiling price. It was a great exit as it went on to trade 50 cents higher. Learned a lot about how to trade these openings with this trade so I feel my risk was justified by adding to my repetoire of skills.

RIG entry exit

As I said I was bearish all day but nothing would pull back today. This was a straight forward setup that has worked recently, however my luck was out today and I took a small hit here too. Another well place stopped as RIG went on to do this;

I missed two great longs while waiting for a better price. The cost of being fickle can be high as I would not have been exposed to the RIG trade had I taken either of these.

SSO setup


Wanted a better price, the only problem. Should have scaled in - lesson learned.

RVBD setup


Had the alert here at the gap close to take a long. Easy setup but as I mentioned at the start of the post, my internet screwed me over again.

Elsewhere POT went parabolic after diving back into it's old consolidation range. GS did most of the same thrashing up on huge volume into close.

Looking to go long SSO tomorrow around $20.45. Will also watch ERY and DUG tomorrow. I much prefer futures to ETFs, although I need to give it a greater sample size before I make my mind up. Hard trading today as it's hard to stay bullish when you're so extended!

No trigger pulls today, college then gym and dinner into the market. Bit of TA here in RIG which as far as I can tell has given nothing but sell signals all day.

SUN got creamed today after yesterdays sell signals and is trading down 1.85 at $26.76. Looking for support in this region.

Another strong day here after a short day in college.

Trading well, here is my current blotter as at 15:00GMT


There has been extreme volatility today, as well as solid setups. FAZ and FAS were hedge trades which I continually scaled in and out depending on where they were going. My FAS trade wasn't very good but the FAZ was excellent.

Wheat was an excellent trade, and lately it seems that all agricultural commodities pop at the open - at least corn, wheat and soy have. I took an entry before open based on the fact it had broken it's consolidation range between 0900-1430 for 10 at 454.75. It popped to 559.5 at the open, taking half my position out at 550 on my limit. I closed the rest out as that gap was too good to say no to. I also caught a short at 557.5 as it consistantly hit resistance there on the 1 minute on declining volume with a bearish macd. I held for 6 points but should have anticipated the gap closure trade - as that's pretty much what it's done. That would have been another 10 points on 10 contracts.

Yet again I traded RIG based first on a short with positive divergence. I closed and reverse on a tiny double bottom with MA support and traded the breakout. I re-entered on double size based on a simple 123 setup at $63. Easy easy trading.


I was long SUN on a 123, lost my attention on this one as there was a second entry shortly after.

Bond trade another 123 setup of a double bottom at the 200EMA.

Oil trade - topping featuring negativity in divergence.


FX trades all scalps, USD/CHF bear flag setup on large size.

Easy trades today with nearly $20k gross profit. Biggest drawdowns were in FAS which I pair traded to profit. I have been scaling in short gold since 960 as this is showing signs of weakness to me.

Edit closing time:

Didn't make any more trades, closed out my gold for a few points to add another few hundred. FAZ made the move to $31 as predicted (although it did drop sharply off that price at the close.


SUN was nice to trade on both sides today with some nice technical indications to take short positions after I was bullish earlier in the day (previous SUN chart)

Todays move was probably the best technical setup I have ever seen. I'll go over the daily, hourly, and 5min and explain why every timescale pointed to a rally.

Retrospectively of course, however I do believe there are a lot of people today who saw this coming and took positions accordingly and hats off to them! Just goes to show how much college gets in the way of trading lol.

OK here we go. Were you smart enough to enter the trade in the short term?

If yes, were you able to choose the logical exit area?


Backed up of course with the old principle of prior support being future resistance;


Trading is not hard! Here's my blotter for the day and a brief explanation


Opened the day seriously in the hole with a bad GS short from yesterday. Was down over $2500 at one point. I traded on immense size with a series of scalps to get it back green. Realistically this trade would have been impossible as somebody shorting $700k worth of GS would never get a quick fill would they? Seriously over leveraged too, caught out a few times so reversed which is a tactic I continue to use to winning effect.

Bond trades were also 10 contract scalps ranging from -$800-+$3000 and were relatively easy despite closing and reversing a lot.

FX trade was a bear flag which I entered on significant size on an easy setup and I still hold 250k short.

SPY trades were all large positions during a consolidation range that formed in the final 30 minutes. Made about 6 round trips in that range for good profit, some of it was mirrored with YM trades too.

Apart from the start of the day with the GS trades, at no point was I exposed to that much risk and I didn't have any severe drawdowns. Two essential ingredients to a successful and consistent trading day.

I bet we've got some fresh millionaires somewhere in the World tonight.

WOW!












But the recession is not over.

Haven't traded much today, was out most of the afternoon. Caught a small sized short in RIG based on a double top with serious divergence when oil was pushing on for $50. Needless to say I shorted both, and the oil trade is where most of my money has been today. Had a $100 loser in dow futures at the start of the day which I turned around with a low risk setup.

Charts etc..

It does not get any easier than this:


I also traded that bull flag (circled area) long, and sold out and scaled into a short above 49.75 for 6 contracts, covering quickly. I am currently scaling in long at 48.775 looking for a quick scalp.

RIG trade was so easy. Double top, divergence, and it's commodity running into major psychological overhead.

Here's my blotter. I'm not up that much, it's $1600 realised and I'm just over break-even on that oil trade.


Edit 10 minutes later GMT
Scalped out the oil as predicted, another easy trade. Done for the day. Markets are easy when you are quick enough to trade them.


Edit 19:25 GMT
OK OK if I'm in front of my computer; I'm trading, no doubt! Got it to nearly a $2500 by scalping out the consolidation range in the dow futures from the last half an hour. Current support at 7280 - looks toppy at 7300 (close and reverse area). I am now hesitant to scale in long at 7280 as we are looking extended.

Mammoth sell off in bonds today! Out of the long term wedge and looking to go lower. Watching 123'100.