The Student Loan Ranger

I will continue to look at swing plays this week after last weeks successes. A few good plays this week, but the volatility amongst them is low so the profits won't be as high - but it's consistency I'm after this week.

First up I would just like to focus on the airlines BAY and EZJ. These are both at trend resistance points combined with good indicators. Keep an eye on the oil price and a break of these trend lines for entry points.
Are the airlines ready to breakout?


I would also like to add that I think we may be beginning to see the bottom of the plummeting prices in the banking sector, in particular with RBS and BARC which look the best of the bunch.

In RBS we are seeing constant drops after the rights issue, but these drops lost momentum by Friday and formed a very short term double bottom. There is heavy negative divergence in the MACD indicating a turn around, which the stochastics are oversold but not yet ready. Watch 222-225 for support in RBS with 235 another significant number.

It is the same story for BARC with a similar chart and indicators. I would wait for an upturn in the ADX to confirm my theories first. LLOY also looking OK as is AL. Given the nature of the beast at the moment, these represent risky plays which must include a tight stop against further drops. I will watch this week but these will not form part of my watchlist, and I would only trade on significant S/R points.

Anyway, on to the watchlist.

Afren (AFR)
Has been in a long term up trend for quite a long time, and I have been waiting for retracement for quite a while. It bull flagged out of resistance and has since found support at that breaching point. The last 3 days have seen steady gains as it breaks from another bull flag coinciding with a bounce off the support and good looking indicators.


The chart looks good, and am impressed with

• The MACD has found the same level 3 times now, at which point the stock has rallied
• ADX taking control on the bull side
• Good volume supporting the moves at the end of the week
• Stochastics gearing for a run

I would consider entry now given it closed at daily high on Friday, but it would be better to wait for confirmation at around 175 for an entry point with a stop at 160 (breached for a short to lower trend line)

Carphone Warehouse (CPW)
A simple short term double bottom play from CPW this week. The indicators look good, but the scope for profit isn't too great. I would enter on a confirmation of a fastline EMA break at 241.5 or more divergence on the MACD.

I would take profits at about 265 but I think you would have to hold for 2 weeks to reach this number - but still represents about 8.75%. Check the chart for reasoning across the indicators.

Man Group (EMG)
Excellent company name and a pretty decent looking chart. Bit more technical analysis about this one than CPW and it looks good for a few weeks here at EMG. What I'm seeing in an ascending wedge where it's resistance was broken last week. However, Friday saw a spinning top, indicating to me that the bulls and bears were indecisive about the movement for next week.

What normally happens with this setup is a break above resistance, followed by a drop to the new support - then a move from there upwards in a bull flag type formation.

What we also have here is an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is very bullish. The indicators all look very strong, with perhaps MACD the weakest.

My entry point this week for EMG would be either a bounce off new support at about 595-599, or a break to new highs at 641. This setup is interesting because we are also seeing a longer term double top, a move south of the support at around 595 is a very strong indicator to short the stock, where as a move above that with confirmation is a very strong indicator to go long. Based on the indicators, I am bullish, but the chart will give me the right signals either way.

First Group (FGP)
The chart is similar to TLPR from last week, as the channel is there and lines up with the indicators well. However I think this trade isn't a 2-3 day swing, more like a 7-12 day hold. There is a strong support triple bottom which is gradually rising by a a tiny amount - which is bounced off midweek on a double bottomed wick.

I would wait for a fast line EMA break (green) at 530 for an entry signal with profit target at 592.5. I would put in a stop at 507.5 and I would short FGP on a bear break at lows of <493 style="font-weight: bold;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Kazakhmys (KAZ)
A few things to look out here with KAZ. Firstly a double bottom channel break formed a short term upward trend to resistance at around 1595p which was broken and is around where we are now after a short term double drop.

This trade could go either way, but based on the indicators it should turn bullish, although the indicators are not fully developed so we should get a signal late Monday or early Tuesday. I would enter on gains on Fridays closing price which formed a hammer candlestick after a downward trend which is good. My price target is 1920p.

I would short KAZ on bear breaks at 1540p to around 1400p. The inverse head and shoulders have a price target of where we closed on Friday, so tread carefully and trade the triggers.

VT Group (VTG)
Continued from last week as the stock is still looking very good. The chart is included on last weeks blog so won't include. I will enter on any gains on Monday, with a profit target at about 690 - but this is looking good to break resistance at about 705p.

Blogger is being annoying and it keeps timing out, add the following to the watchlist with indicators and entries on the chart. Both of these are revisited from a few months ago when I was

Morgan Crucible (MGCR)

Check the chart for your entries, this is pretty much an ascending wedge play with the added factor of a drop to horizontal support line.

SIG (SHI)

Enter on break of 50 day ema, with a stop (and shorting position) of south of 688. Profit target is 830.

I will also passively watch BATS and TLPR based on last weeks analysis. I may also trade MTA on a pennant breakout at highs above 7.5 if they come.

Sunday update:

I've just been checking some charts from the American markets, and as I would like to trade US stocks in the future, I have added one this week as a tester. I feel that TA works best on US markets as that's what they were designed around. The liquidity in the top stocks is incredible and there seems to be a lot less manipulation.

Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Wedge and horizontal resistance breakout or channel play. Entry at 30.80 with short term target around 33 with potential for breakout to >36. Stop loss at 29.15.

All indicators look good so we'll see what happens here. Projected profits aren't high here, but it looks like a low risk move and is good enough to start my analysis of American markets.

From a monetary viewpoint, it's pretty unpractical for me to trade US stocks at the moment, given my broker is crap and would charge crazy fees. My data isn't live for US equities and there is also the US:UK conversion rates to factor into the costs. I am 100% confident that III would con me out of money at some point during currency conversion.

For some reason, when I look at US stocks I look at the price difference multiplied by volume for my profits instead of working on percentages. I think it's because I always see traders buying lumps of 100 instead of working off a cash position.

Good weeks trading this week, pleased with how my setups went. From a numbers point of view, I had an 80% success rate in my trades and earned about 35% more than I would have earned doing 5 9-5 shifts in a supermarket/bar/building site so good in the hood from there.

I am started to get a lot more disciplined in my approach to trading, treating it more as a business application than just something for fun. It is part of my personality to be effective at anything so long as I have a structure and a routine. If I have specific targets and setups, and treat it like I would a job, then I will be a lot more successful than the guy who would have just moseyed along a few months ago while playing champ manager or pro ev at the same time. Although I still think it is equally important to have fun trading and to enjoy the motions.

My discipline is encouraging, and the only trade I lost on was DES - not on my watchlist and a misjudgement of market sentiment. All my other trades were from the watchlist - holding EME from last week, 2 trades in BAY and one in TLPR - and those were all good trades.

PS I took profits in TLPR today at 471 for 9.7% profit.

I've learned the following this week - all very valuable lessons imho.

1. Only trade your watchlist
2. Only trade off your trigger points (or if you know how a stock like SOLA works)
   
3. Set realistic profit targets and take the money
   
4. Don't place a trailing stop 2 hours after the market opens
5. Non-supportive lows will always go lower, non resistant highs will always go higher - then drop to support - and then go again.
   
6. Buy for a reason, sell for a reason
7. Let winners run, don't let losers start the race
   

From this week I am introducing a few new features to my round-ups, basically so I can track my trade success rate, watchlist success rate, and weekly monetary gains if for example £3k were invested in each trade. I still maintain you learn more from your mistakes from your gains, but it is still important to focus on what you do right.

Stocks analysis from this weeks Crystal Balling

Bellway (BWY)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "... but I feel this will make a move on Tuesday or Monday. Short term price target of 720. Go short on a bear break of 640".
• Watch for moves off double bottom at 645.
• Watch for wedge breakout north and south.

What happened:

• Bear break of 640 was signal to short - dropped quickly to 620
• Currently at 4.5 year lows
• Profits of 3.4% for shorters before brokerage etc
• Successful trade based on original entry points

Not a very interesting chart so won't include. BWY is not looking for support at 620. Any break below 620 indicates a new 4.5 year low hence an indicator to short the stock.

Sci Entertainment Group (SEG)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "Entry price around 53.5 depending on L2 activities... conservative price target of 60 to 65"
• Multiple bottom support
• Look for descending wedge breakout for entries

What happened:

• Yawn time in SEG. We did not see the entry point at 53.5 and it has stayed in Mondays range all week
• Heavy institutional buying

What a boring week for SEG! A wedge breakout should happen next week, but I don't think I will be trading this stock. 53.5 remains the entry point for SEG. SEG goes down as neutral for this weeks success rate.

VT Group (VTG)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "Entry points for this stock this week... 631-63... On a hit here I think we will see a bounce... looking for negative divergence and a slight move on the DMI and stochastics to alert me for an entry point in VTG"
• Strong ascending wedge
• Setting up stochastically to coincide with support line

What happened:

• Wicked out to 624, body held at 632 on Thursday.
• I watched the bounce coming back at around 627 live, it was strong and signalled an entry point
• Closed at 654 on Friday after highs at 660
• Looking excellent for next week, and I will look to enter on retracement
• Entry at average prediction price of 632 currently up 3.4% - if I owned I would continue to hold
• Successful trade based on entry points and signals

Was well pleased with VTG as I watched the bounce happen. I did not expect the wicking, and I will watch for that as it could mislead you into taking a wrong position (short in this case). The close of the body is very important in channels and wedges.

Like I say, VTG looks extremely strong leading into next week and represents one of the best trades around at the moment for gains by next Friday. I will keep this on Crystal Balling. This is the best setup I've seen this week... probably.

Confirmation of support strength and following rally

This what I would have waited for on entry if my cash wasn't in TLPR (the 15 minute chart)


Atkins (ATK)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "I believe will turn bullish shortly... channeling between 1222 and 946... very short price target of 1100 with the potential to run to 1222"
• Short the stock on a bear break at 945
• In short term channel but overall wedge
• Watch for confirmation of support line, and break of short term resistance at 1020ish

What happened

• Bounce confirmed
• Resistance broken and used as support
• closed at 1033 on Friday with weekly high at 1051 - Friday was an inside day
  
• Bit of a slow week, looks very boring
• I have reduced target to 1070
• Buying at average on Tuesday and selling on Thursday would have netted between 1.3 and 1.6% - not worth it in my opinion but technically still a "successful trade"
  
• Off the watchlist

I thought ATK might move faster. I don't like the candle on Friday. It could either be a 180 for bulls on Monday, or an inside day for a small drop then a move. Don't trade the inside wedge in ATK, the returns aren't enough for the risk. Wait for a wedge breakout either side for entry.

Dexion ABS (DAB)

Short and sweet - this is an early prediction of a WM pattern. So far the prediction is spot on. If you had read my pattern spotting post about this pattern, you could have traded the inside M at high risk for minimal profit but it's not worth it.


Let's see what happens next week. Since this has followed my WM prediction I should add it to the successful list, but it's not exactly a trade, so like ATK it's a weak one. I have a funny feeling we will see a rise above the M resistance next week.

Tullet Prebon (TLPR)

I feel I covered this enough during the week so shouldn't need to explain. I will just include a nice looking chart for kudos. Successful trade (11%)

Looks like there is still some wind in the sails, but I hit my adjusted profit target (between 468-480) earlier than I thought and sold into strength. Keep the discipline!

British American Tobacco (BATS)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "Entry at the support line from the trend with a target of 2025"
• Ascending wedge
• Indicators maturing but not quite ready at time of writing

What happened:

• We did not see the entry point off the wedge
• Indicators still lacking confirmation
• Small trading range the past week
• Would not have entered a trade, therefore neutral

Yawn week for BATS. Will continue to monitor wedge, look at the charts for entry points.

ARM Holdings (ARM)

Prediction and chart alerts

• "Basically I'm looking for support at the 100 day EMA as all indicators look set for a drop... I'm bearish with 99p representing a key value"
• Trying to break downward trend
• Potential inverse head and shoulders forming

What happened

• ARM has wicked 99p twice this week, did not bounce and did not drop
• Massive relative volume on Friday
• Divergence on MACD
• Looking set to do something.. just not sure which
• No entry signals short or long so neutral

Renovo (RNVO)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "ultra-risk manoeuvres on RNVO... it will either plummet or see spectacular Rocky comeback... look bullish leading into the next few days, but watch close... not be surprised to see this stock on the high gainers"
• Look for fast line EMA break for entry

What happened

• RNVO was bullish into the next few days (Tue/Wed)
• Climbed up to 12% on Friday and hit the top movers list lol
• Still high risk
• Did not break daily fast line EMA so no entry
• Support at lows not tested

Would have loved to enter RNVO, but like I said the risk was too high - it was just one to watch. Entry at any point this week would see you even on Tuesdays opening, so a neutral trade on two fronts.

British Airways (BAY)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "Double bottom as strong reversal indicator but might be weaker DB than normal... stochastically a bull day on Tuesday"
• Watch both channel resistance lines for breakout

What happened:

• Bullish days on Tue, Wed and Fri
• Traded intra day twice both successful
• Broke out of both channels - now awaiting confirmation
• Successful trade
• Gains anyway from 2-8% (will use 5% for blog calculation)

BAY was good to trade this week. Oil affects the prices quite a lot. News about them ordering new planes is what boosted the price initially. Heavily day traded and tends to wane off at the end of the day. BAY is knocking on the door of the trend resistance and looks good to break, but can't be sure with these blue chips at the moment lol.

Anglo Pacific (APF)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "Straight forward flag play, check the chart" - kept it brief then
• Flag breakout play

What happened:

• APF has formed a strong ascending wedge in about this flag
• Volume slipping out of it
• Maintain 215.5 confirmed price entry
• Neutral trade for blog, as no entry signal given

Looks like it will make it's move out the wedge next week instead for an entry point. Kept an eye on it, and it tried, but 215.5 is very stubborn for APF

The bottom line

Trading success rate this week:







Watchlist success rate this week (on entries):







Overall watchlist return (Green = good, Red = bad, Grey = neutral):







Net return on watchlist this week (£3k trades at trigger entry and current or taken profits, less 15% for mistiming and brokerage etc):







You would have probably required £9000 overall exposure to generate this amount. It could be greater or higher depending on what you traded and on what days. This is just how I'm working it out.

Good week for entries. This is probably the best way to track my progress as a trader.

Bought into TLPR after it bounced strongly off the channel support. Was in profit quickly but profit taking snakes in the grass already out in force. Will hold with a stop at 421.25 as per the channel support line with price target short-mid at 450 as high as 485 if it looks good.

I am seriously beginning to despair two things, early exits and brokerage fees.

I left SOLA early and missed out on another £500 3 days later.
I left BAY early today, selling at 222, it's now at 227.
I sold TLW (long time ago) way too early as it hits new highs constantly.
I sold EME too early as it is up 25% today.

And brokerage fees added 4p to my average cost for my TLPR entry, which is an absolute nightmare of a price hike. My entry price was 425 (4.5p too high probably).

Charts for TLPR entry (intra day and cropped yearly):




Thursday update:
Didn't want to clog the blog up, I wasn't trading today because of college. Continuing to hold TLPR as it reacts strongly to my analysis. The stock was up 5.3% on purchase today so pleased. Will just include a chart for my exit price to keep the discipline.

I have switched to Quotestream to ADVFN. I feel the product is better, the drawback is having to have multiple tabs open for L2, charting and my watchlist. Apparently ADVFN is compatible with QuoteTracker - but I can only get indices and not equities which is what I need.


Trade looking promising given stochastics, macd and volume reacting to support line on double bottom within triple bottom. Wedge forming outside the channel. I am not wholly confident we will see a breakout, hence my profit taking projections. Hopefully we will see a break of the green EMA tomorrow and a possible golden cross.

SOLA reacted well to my cup and handle call on Tuesday - stalling a little now

Took £100 profits in EME after a strong gap up - will wait for another entry point.

Bad trade in DES (-£47) after missing the bounce and regretting not having one-click DMA trading.

Good quick scalp on BAY for an easy £45. Looking to establish a new position on weakness.

Absolute breakdown on SEG.

BWY a sell at one point, then a buy. All over the place at new 52 week lows.

Slow day across the board, lots of manipulation.

AGA looks like it is beginning to make very slow progress north.

RNVO all over the shop.

Market was terribly dry between 0930 and 1500 as per usual.

Cup & Handle forming on SOLA at 1600.

APF tried hard to break 215 but no success - the wedge continues to narrow and I'm pessimistically optimistic.

EME now just above my initial entry price - will it find support here and move tomorrow?

A fairly hefty and decent looking watchlist coming this week. There's a good mix of signals, patterns and indicators amongst the candidates this week. I will continue to monitor some other stocks from previous round-ups or crystal balling articles.

Bellway (BWY)
Simple short term double bottom play here on BWY. The overall trend is down, but the support established in 2004 held the first time. This is a slightly higher risk play, but I feel this will make a move on Tuesday or Monday. Short term price target of 720. Go short on a bear break of 640.

Bellway stock chart;



Sci Entertainment Group (SEG)
For some reason the graph for SEG keeps mucking up so can't include. An OK strength expansion breakout on SEG is combined within an even bigger longer term consolidation range following huge drops in price over the past 8 months or so.

The stochastics is excellent, the ADX is strong, but what caught my eye was the volume behind the moves at the close of the week. I would put a conservative price target of 60 to 65. Not a great deal higher, but if caught at the right entry point could provide a decent quick return.

SEG has had its fair share of bullish engulfing since the drop, but this volume is the highest since that happened. There has been some selling pressure over the past few months as gaps have been filled and the gains did not surpass them. Potentially people getting out after anticipating better moves. Entry price around 53.5 depending on L2 activities.

VT Group (VTG)
Good looking chart here priming itself for a good entry point. VT group has enjoyed the past 5 years as the stock has pretty much been in an uptrend since 2003. A very strong ascending wedge has formed since January.

With stochastics in the oversold region but still bearish, the directional movement looking bearish and some recent heavy selling pressure - I believe this stock should hit the wedge support line and make a move from there. Entry points for this stock this week in my opinion are a bounce of the line, which represets anywhere between 631 on Tuesday, to 634 on Friday.

On a hit here I think we will see a bounce, based at least on the stochastics and basic technical analysis of trends and wedges. The 100 day EMA has held well, and has only been broken just as the SP hits the support. A similar move happened on Thursday and Friday. I will be looking for negative divergence and a slight move on the DMI and stochastics to alert me for an entry point in VTG.

VT Group stock chart;



I put a medium to long term price target of 811p on VTG, with a short term target of 695p if/when the stock bounces of the support line as shown. Let some run if the 700p area is broken on strength. Go short on a breakdown of the support.

Atkins (ATK)
Atkins is at an interesting juncture at present which I believe will turn bullish shortly. Like VTG the overall trend is up on the long term, but there has been some channeling between 1222 and 946 over the past 16 months. During this time the SP has not dropped out of the trend line, nor has it broken through overhead resistance at 1222.

This scenario sounds like a wedge but I'm not quite viewing it like that. The indicators aren't the best, except for stochastic - which looks good - and more importantly, ties in well with the support line. ATK has set up two short term resistance levels at current price and 1127.

I am bullish in ATK with the very short price target of 1100 with the potential to run to 1222. Obviously, short the stock on a downbreak of the support line with a short covering price of channel support (outside the wedge) at 944. Short again if it drops below this.

Atkins stock chart;



This is another tricky move with great plays to the bulls and bears given by clear entry and exit signals. In the longer term, an opportunity to trade the channels will arise if the trend line support is breached. Use the prices 946 and 1222 for starters.

Dexion ABS (DAB)
Will keep it short and sweet. This stock looks in for a rough period of undefined length if the stock does not reverse at 149.5. This has so far failed a cup and handle, bull flag breakout and a break of the 100 day EMA all after a much failed triple top. The stochastics are very bearish, as are the other indicators and volume. I don't cover many shorts at the moment, but this looks like a good one.

Entry now with price target of 150p. A south break of 155p will add further significance to this drop. On the flip side, bull moves off 155p to above and confirmed prices >158p may see the blues in the winning corner.

Lol just checked my notes, I added this on the above, but also I might speculate that DAB is forming a WM pattern as mentioned in the post "Pattern Spotting" a few weeks ago. I will add the chart to see what you think.

Optimism on DAB chart;



Tullet Prebon (TLPR)
I have decided to withdraw TLPR from in depth analysis as it is not quite ready for entry. It sits in a channel from 433 to 490 in the short term - currently at 433. Look for a triple bottom bounce off 433 for target price of 485. The stochastics are a few days away from being ripe but I will monitor price action. Short on breach of 433 with price target of 390.

British American Tobacco (BATS)
Another ascending wedge here with maturing indicators that will be ready for entry this week. More of a medium term swing trade given the blue chip credentials of the victim.

Check the graphic for entry and exit signals. There have been enough wedges here so don't feel the need to cover. The gray line is indicative of where we might see the move, but more likely off the trend support given the recent double top and stochastics not quite ready yet, plus the MACD divergence didn't improve on the green day on Friday.

British American Tobacco stock chart;



Entry at the support line from the trend with a target of 2025.

ARM Holdings (ARM)
Visual explanation for ARM should suffice. Basically I'm looking for support at the 100 day EMA as all indicators look set for a drop. Inverse head and shoulders prediction led directly to a high double top which has not quite seen that big a drop yet.

I'm bearish with 99p representing a key value this week.

Renovo (RNVO)
I've gone for ultra-risk manoeuvres on RNVO. The stock has been in free fall lately as it plummeted to new lows on Thursday, followed by gap up bullishness on Friday. I probably won't enter this trade given the high risk nature, but it will be interesting to watch - for me it will either plummet or see spectacular Rocky comeback movement.

The stochastics look bullish leading into the next few days, but watch close. I will not be surprised to see this stock on the high gainers, or high losers lists this week. Wait for a fast line EMA break for entry.

British Airways (BAY)
Given the nature of the oil beast at the moment, I'm not so sure BAY is a stock I should be dicing with. I will look at it from a technical perspective. See the notes on the chart.

British Aiways stock chart;



Anglo Pacific (APF)
Straight forward flag play, check the chart for info.

Anglo Pacific stock chart;



Others:
Look for a double bottom off the previously mentioned Dairy Crest Group (DCG) at advances on Fridays closing price.

Look for continued moves to new highs on Petroneft (PTR).

I was going to cover more, but it's late and I'm tired.

An horrific week for the watchlist, which as I said wasn't very good to start with. I'll keep it brief as there are some better options this week coming. This week we continue to add stocks to the ever expanding breakout list.

London Stock Exchange (LSE) had a big move, followed by a spinning top (good exit signal for me) and then crashed to a 2 year low. I do not think that this will be a bottom fishing opportunity, the signals point to continued falls in the price, representing a decent shorting position. My prediction of short term gains were way off, and I will stay clear from this stock as it doesn't look like it likes me.

Equator Exploration (EEL) is currently forming a bull flag. A few players have taken profit after the big drop, and a break either side of this flag represents either a strong buy or sell signal. Flags have been very good indicators lately and I rate them highly. I anticipate a break to the bull side for EEL with 12p (sell some and let some run) and 7p (cover your short) very significant numbers for this stock over the next month.

We did see some profit taking on Monday as predicted for Sefton Resources (SER). Yet another flag formation here. Looking for support at 9.50 for an entry or south break for short cover. This is performing well to short term EMAs and should continue the rise if we see a break of 10.50p for what I would consider a strong entry signal.

The descending wedge on AGA Rangemaster (AGA) continues to get tighter and more significant. It is about to strike a fourth bottom at around 281 which is solid support back to 2004. According to my analysis is should break out this week, so I have included a chart for entry signals short and long.


Petroneft (PTR) performed very well this week, although the entry point was not reached. The setup was triple bottom support and stochastics that looked set to drop to the same range. The stock broke bear side on a flag last week which is why I thought we'd see 27.5p for entry. A mini double bottom at 29p shot the stock up to 36.5p. Momentum continues to lie with this stock and I will wait and see what happens next. PTR has also broken out of an awkward descending wedge very strongly.


Maybe my watchlist wasn't so bad after all. Empryrean (EME) had a bounce prediction at 46p, I was off by a penny and it bounced at 47p and now lies at 55.44 on Fridays close. I have taken a position in EME based on Fridays performance. The factors influencing my decision to go long are:

1. Very strong bull flag breakout and bullish engulfing.
2. Based on greatest trading range for the past 22 days.
3. Very large volume ahead of me in the mid to high 60s price range - earlier profits.
   
4. Stochastics very strong.
5. ADX very strong
6. MACD improving.
7. Possible insider buying on pending news.
8. Strong support at 46p which is just within my stop range.
9. High potential to sell intro strength on further moves.
   

I will adjust price targets accordingly, as this stock could move fast and could easily be in the 60-70 range by Tuesday. I would currently accept 65p on the table here. Stop on a break of support circa 45p.

EMED did break to new highs, but after so many gains from March it is due for a retracement which is probably what we're seeing now. There are still a lot of holders in late here so I expect some heavy profit taking to commence soon. Should find support at 25p. All indicators point to down for a while but I would expect the momentum to pick up again later with breaks to new highs.

We did see the retrace on RIFT and then some kind of false breakout on Friday. The high remains at 7.5 which is looking very stubborn. More accumulation and indicators point to a breakout but this isn't a stock I would gamble on short term, given the amount of traders in at a significantly lower price. Buying now will mean buying into profit takers. Hold for a better and clearer entry.

Pure insanity over on Tower Resources (TRP) as the market makers are in clear control of this stock, it is a no win situation until the MM situation has been resolved. This could be the most tremendously huge bull flag ever though - so keep an eye on it. It's all about spining tops yo.

ReneSOLA (SOLA) broke to new highs as predicted, but has seen some heavy profit taking and selling as new traders continue to trade its volatility. The shine may soon come off this stock as it continues to grow in popularity and predictability. I am looking for support at 526-536 or a break of 765 for entry. That represents the current trading range of the stock.

Conclusion
Despite a fairly bad week across the board, momentum stocks offered relative strength in the very short term. It seems wise to shy away from the top 100 for longs at the moment, as the banks keep dragging everything down, while small caps and volatile oil stocks jump and fall on a weekly basis.

There doesn't seem to be any safe money at the moment.

Keep an eye on the oil price, there are a lot of stocks that move based on this figure.

The best setups at the moment seem to be wedges and flags.

There are quite a lot of new highs amongst oil, energy and mining. Despite the lack of good signals, entries over the past 2 weeks would have already provided decent gains.

Short airlines and banks, but be wary of a bounce on RBS.

A lot of the bottom fishing plays that were succesful 3 weeks ago, have began to drop to new lows.

The market will be closed again this Monday, so Crystal Balling will be uploaded on Monday night at some point. Some interesting charts and analysis, including a few revisited stocks from previous articles.

PET crossed 92p and got as high as 103.5 - 1.5p less than short term target for 10% gain. Look for support at 97 area. Buy opportunities on continuation tomorrow according to expansion breakout.

King SOLA breaking to new highs again in UK and US. Adjusted price target of £10 medium term. I re-iterate: "Trade this stock only."

SER on intra-day double bottom, waiting to see a move north soon.

Other stocks from watchlist performing quite well. RIFT slowing for retracement, watch for up moves tomorrow or Wednesday. TRP under serious market manipulation at the moment but is finding support around 7 and 7.5.

Struggling this week for good technical analysis plays this week. A lot of stocks have made some good moves lately, and most of the trades I can spot are on the bear side. Most of the good stuff lies in small cap oil and energy plays, as a lot of them are having their breaks at the moment. I have absolutely no techincal setups for this week after considering some bottom plays on KIE and BLND - which I won't cover as the risk for reward isn't worth it in my opinion.

Some of the below were on Thursday nights hit-list for Friday, some did well and others didn't make their moves. I believe they're all worth watching - as some are set up for reversals, others looking for breakouts/new highs etc.

Momentum plays this week:

LSE is probably the nicest chart which is why I'll include it. The difficulty this week will be a closing over the 50 day ema (red line) which it is close to at the moment. It didn't manage last time and bounce very hard to the new lows it found itself at over the past 2 weeks. Currently just off long term (3 year) support/resistance line - and these types of plays have been 100% profitable over the past 3 or 4 weeks. Watch for moves around 1228p too.

Big jump on high volume for EEL, but stochastics say oversold. I predict down as profits are locked in and then a move back up - but these stocks often don't do what you think.

SER at new highs with strong volume. All indicators say continuation but watch for profit taking on Monday.

AGA on triple bottom with descending wedge - watch for a breakout either side for entry point short or long.

PTR for multiple bottom support at 27.5 entry for short term profits.

EME on a gap break followed by new support bounce and move up play - stochastics awaiting confirmation. Look for bounce at about 46p.

Anything above 29.2p on EMED means a break to new highs. All indicators and volume point to this happening this week. Lock in profits quick here and let some ride.

Look for a 1-2-3-4 on RIFT as it ran away last week then took a breather on Friday. The move was mostly news and ramp based, looks like it will retrace and then continue later.

Follow TRP for an insight into how the market responds to 250% gains in one day.

As always, watch SOLA closely for continued new highs after some retracement.

Like I said, the market doesn't look great this week, hopefully this will change by Tuesday. I won't be getting involved on Monday because of college, so I will have another look Monday night for some short term setups for the rest of the week.

A fairly good week for the watchlist in terms of predictions etc.

Dairy Crest (DCG)
Prediction: "I think this will go up Monday/Tuesday, and as the profit taking commences I then expect this to go down quite fast"

Well it didn't quite go up on Monday, it formed a hammer top, and then crashed pretty fast over the next 4 days as predicted (-13%). Still a lot of relative recent buying so it will be interesting to see how this reacts to a hit off 405p. My indicators are all over the place here, but mostly bearish in appearance. I may continue to watch this as I believe the 405p mark will tell the story.

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK)
Prediction: "...TA preachers say follow the trend, and for a stock that has made 8 all time high days from the past 9 - then HAWK is a good move. Even once the stochastics pull back a little, I will watch for a turn for entry" AKA unsure!

I didn't get my entry signal, and it hasn't set any new highs this week. Didn't really react to the all time high, and has just moved sideways leaning down this week. This has hugged the green line ema a lot on this run, and I will not consider an entry short or long until we see a move off that - or unless we break 101.5p. It looks like we will see a short term retracement to around 90 before any moves up. Fairly dull week for the stock compared to recent times - maybe HAWK is catching its breath before the next surge?

Petrel Resources (PET)
Prediction: "Realistically, I would look for a move above 92 for entry, with a short term target of 105"

Petrel does not like 92p at all, a price which it has tried to beat all week. Looks like a lot of people are losing patience with this stock which is good and bad. If the volume goes out, then it might drop - this drop might woo them back in and provide a boost. Short term indications say down - and I will watch for a move to about 82p. I would still not enter PET until a clean break of 92p is achieved. Also, any move south of 78.2p represents a shorting opportunity.

ReneSOLA (SOLA)
Prediction: "This flag is highly significant, seeing as it follows the WM pattern I covered a few posts ago - meaning that this could go down or up, quite fast, quite soon. Not one to buy or sell right now though. Buy and sell signals depend on whether the price breaks out of the flag on the bull side or the bear side"

This trade really is one for any doubters of technical analysis. The movement was absolutely textbook on a break of the flag formation. I entered on Wednesday, the day after it confirmed the breakout of the flag and bought at 529 on a rule from hit and run trading about entry points. I got out that day for £750 profit at 632. The stock hit 670 on Friday which would have given a 26% profit.

SOLA is the number one stock to trade in the UK intra-day - no doubt about it.

I will continue to monitor all stocks. PET on +92p, DCG on reaction +/- to 405p, SOLA every day because I know the movements, and HAWK for a break out to new highs.

Next weeks Crystal Balling will focus mostly on momentum plays, and only a few TA set-ups as there aren't many around from last week.

Tomorrow looks set to be one of the best day-trading days since I got interested in the stockmarket. There is a lot of insanely good short term opportunities amongst the small caps, as well as some good reversal plays coming about. There aren't many stocks showing up pattern or indicators wise, but some great looking momentum scalps.

My set-up for tomorrow is:

I won't go into most details, and I will generally be more inclined to trade the stocks with the green next to them;

TRP up 250% in one day, RNS says 10 billion barrels ready for drilling this year. That works out at an SP of about 50-60p. The volume action was insane, and after some profit taking and treeshaking, the stock closed at highs. These chances seem very rare, and I am aware of both the extreme upside potential - but also the extreme downside potential.

RIFT spudded gas well today, closed at highs, good buy volume and action.

EMED another strong momentum play with high potential returns in short/medium/long plays.

PVR the next poential big mover amongst small oil. EME energy play.

I have college all day tomorrow which is a shame. I guess I can't micro-manage on these which is what I'd need to do. TRP looks like it will be my play, but if I can't sell before close then my capital is exposed over the weekend and into any developments before Monday.

Stood in ahead of size on British Airways (BAY) on excellent volume with good buying presssure. Will wait for the next few minutes to see where we go. Currently 2:1 on buys/sells and expect profit taking to begin at around 630.

Not looking for anything major in this trade because the range is small, just checking that I can apply the strategies of hit and run trading to the UK market. £20 will be enough for me on this one!

Out of the trade, commission and stampt duty killed me on this one. Costs of the trade were £42 against my quick £30 price gain so lost £12 overall. Sell signal was the price crossing under the fast line. Would not be surprised to see the stock bounce off the slow line and maybe I've sold out too early because it's holding on the slow, but these stocks aren't too good for day trading - especially with the costs involved. CFDs would be a lot better for it.

13:48

SOLA now at 616p. A lot of pants on the floor for the rampers.

Off college today so getting some action.

12:00

DES is cooking something up, there's quite a lot of volume in it and it's strong on buys versus sells. It hit what looked like a double top, and I've sold out for a quick £60 profit. The bid price dropped right after I did so it looks like a good move. I'm currently waiting for it to drop for another entry signal, as it might go for a triple bottom and a strong move upwards.

With my money free from that trade, I'm currently watching VPC as it consolidates after a big morning slump, SOLA because it's awesome. I'm also waiting for the US markets to open, so I can try a short term wedge and bounce off EMA on Transocean (RIG) with a price target of around $160.

DES is starting a come back, and we might see some action right about now! Updates to follow.

13:15

DES dropping off, SOLA rocketed before I had a chance. I'm 100% sure there isn't another stock in the world that does this every day:

I'm amazed at the people that buy into this kind of movement after it's been going up so long. If I didn't know this stocks past movements I would be staying well clear. It's topped at 490 as the profit takers have moved in, leaving a lot of people in the doldrums soon I think. A lot of sells at 490.

14:15

Well I don't know if the world is out to get me specifically, but something ALWAYS goes wrong when I want to get into a trade.

I was sitting watching DES and SOLA on L2, both had just triggered buy signals before my L2 stopped working. Shortly after that I couldn't connect to my brokers website, and shortly after that my router stopped working and my internet dropped out. Then my computer crashed.

Suffice to say that DES and SOLA have now both rocketed as I checked the prices on my phone, and I'm stuck writing offline on notepad waiting for my connection to come back. It's Saturday morning syndrome as this is the same kind of thing that happens on Saturday mornings with my internet. When this happens the only sites I can access are google and yahoo - and the speed is about a quarter that of dial-up so you can understand my frustration.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the lazy council workers sitting around smoking fags in the diggers around the corner. It's currently 15:40 and I've been down for about an hour and a half but looks like I'm getting a connection to blogger... ok maybe this will post after all. My brokers website is still not working, which does not surprise me in the slightest.

What I really don't understand is that I can search on Google, Google returns the search results/descriptions/links - but then I can't connect to any of the websites.. how does that work?

22:30

Well just tried again with my computer, and all I can access is blogger, google and the US yahoo website. Very frustrating. Still can't check my broker to place orders, or prorealtime for some set-ups for tomorrow, or any news sites or forums for extra curricular research. Anyway this is what I got earlier in the day when on Quotestream through my broker:

Also from what I can gather, SOLA closed at 520 after I spotted the reversal double bottom at 457. Could have made the easiest £500 of my life but it's over with now so nothing I can do about it. DES seemed to close around 95.5p after dropping to 91.5p which would have been my entry signal.

I'm really not sure what's causing my internet to stop working just when it matters, but I can only assume it is fate. As for tomorrow, I have no set-ups at all to trade because I can't do any research. VPC looked OK earlier, but I have no clue how it did during the day. SOLA and DES could be plays as SOLAs earnings are out tomorrow, and DES is looking to break to new highs if it passes 96p.

Realistically I'm only a trade or two away from being able to open an Interactive Brokers account, so at least I have that to look forward to!

Well as yet I've been unsuccessful in programming the hit and run strategies into prorealtime so I'll leave that and just relax this weekend instead. I am "all-in" DES at the moment. My profits on that will be dependant on an early morning RNS - if there isn't one of these, then I can exit - trade - and get in for more or less the same price later in the day. It would take a very good setup (PET) for me to consider this move, as I don't want to overtrade.

I want to focus on a few interesting plays this week, and less on the traditional pattern spotting and indicator coverage. These are more for the purposes of learning a bit more about what to do when faced with stocks that present large potential gains or large potential losses. The best advice would be to ignore them and find a cleaner set-up, but where's the fun in that?

Dairy Crest (DCG)
This showed up last week on my 'Stochastilicious' filter on prorealtime, but I really wasn't sure about it so left it. In hindsight I missed out big time, but there are a lot of these bottom reversals happening right now. Incidentally, the first burst was the largest range from the past 9 days and the ADX was above 30 - strong "Hit and Run" strategies.

We've seen a bullish few days here - and the indicators point strongly in favour of a continuation - but surely it can't.. can it? The potential to the upside in the short term is about 508 for me, another 7%. This could come on Monday - the signs will be there very early in trading. These moves have been backed up with some obscene volume - which means that at some point in the next few days there will be some serious profit taking. There wasn't any news immediately before, or during this rise. I think this will go up Monday/Tuesday, and as the profit taking commences I then expect this to go down quite fast. My initial target is within a few pence of the trend line or resistance line - but with these indicators I might be wrong, and it could smash clean through and out.


Nighthawk Energy (HAWK)
Another quandry for me here. HAWK has been a stock I always look at, but never buy. It's totally passed me by lately until I consistantly saw it making new highs over the past week. I recall looking at this in late February and naively thinking "this can't go any higher!".

An excellent breakout from a good ascending wedge followed.

General rules for profit taking on an ascending wedge are calculating the distance between first two points, and then project that upwards from the break. We've had the break move, the consolidation, and the move up - and now we are exactly where the technical trader would take profits. HAWKs moves these past few weeks have been unrelenting.

The ADX is smoking hot, and the long term MACD is looking like a ski ramp. The stochastics have been +80 for a while now, but that's having little impact on it's momentum - the signal line for sales doesn't even drop off that low before crossing again. HAWK is finding some good bounce opportunities off the 40 day ema (redline), and is hugging the fast line tight.

What I don't like is the gap up and spinning top right at the profit taking level. But all the TA preachers say follow the trend, and for a stock that has made 8 all time high days from the past 9 - then HAWK is a good move. Even once the stochastics pull back a little, I will watch for a turn for entry.


Petrel Resources (PET)
Had this on my watchlists for about 2 weeks after I thought it might have formed a double bottom at some good support and was ready to go up. It didn't, but I set a price alarm and have watched it move quite well this week.

It's ticked over the alarm, so I've had another look at the prospects of this stock. Despite closing the tiniest fraction under the support/resistance line, PET is probably looking one of the best bets for the coming week. There is no sign yet that Petrel is ready for a strong upward rally or trend reversal - it's sitting in a sideways channel at the moment, which is more or less where I currently expect it to stay - but it's looking very rosy for the short term. The volume isn't high, but there is some good buying pressure.

The last time it moved sharply - there was a lot of volume. People will be watching PET with this in mind, so stepping in ahead of them might allow you to sell into strength as the rest of the traders jump in for a quick buck. The big move last time was provoked by a breakout to the bull side of a short term descending wedge, and while the setup isn't as clean as last time - there is some positivity about their operations in Iraq which is drawing in a few longer term investors at the moment.

On the technical side, stochastics are favourable, ADX is +30, bulls facing up with bears facing down on the DM, MACD showing good divergence and has crossed over. I am excited about this stock next week, and to me it represents the best play.

Realistically, I would look for a move above 92 for entry, with a short term target of 105. My targets are lower than normal here, as the last major high was less than the previous. I would need to see a cover to about half the distance of that high from now (=105) before a pullback then move to the upside. This stock can be news biased so be careful on that front.

ReneSOLA (SOLA)
Well I just had to include SOLA because it's the stock I like to look at most. The intra-day movements are so predictable once you've followed it for a while, that you can literally spot the exact trade it turns on and look at 5% profits within half an hour.

Things are hotting up for this stock as oil prices reach new highs, the dual listed American stock reaches new highs, and they are set to announce reports next week after very strong financial updates throughout the year. It's all about China, and it's all about solar... and oil.

I'll be honest and say I don't have a clue where this is going to go. For the meantime, all I know is that there is resistance at 460 and support at 211 and it has formed a flag. I think this range will continue until results are released, and then I think we might see new highs. This flag is highly significant, seeing as it follows the WM pattern I covered a few posts ago - meaning that this could go down or up, quite fast, quite soon. Not one to buy or sell right now though. Buy and sell signals depend on whether the price breaks out of the flag on the bull side or the bear side.


I might add more stocks on Sunday night if I have the time.