[CRYSTAL BALLING - APRIL 14TH-18TH ]
My internet seems to be working again, about time. Anyway, some TA for next week. The following shares are on my watchlist for the next 2 weeks with the current price in brackets:
UP
Lonmin PLC (LMI 3,219p)
Tate & Lyle (TATE - 510.50p) * but not sure!
DOWN
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN 144p) *still looking to fall to lower line from last week
AstraZenica (AZN 2,011p)
BG Group (BG- 1,220p)
Morgan Crucible (MGCR - 234.75p) *same situation as ADN
Cadbury Schweppes (CBRY 563p)
You will notice a continuation on ADN and MGCR, both have responded well to my TA from last week and are in line with my expectations. ADN is down 6% from first mention, while MGCR is down a slight from 234.75 to 231. I am 100% confident on ADN, and 85% on MGCR - there seems to be some dilly-dally between 232-228 and the stochastics have taken a slight turn.
BG Group
This is a great swing trading stock (I think..) with high gains and losses in a relatively short time frame, backed up by this strong upward trend. I'm looking for a confirmation of a reversal at the top trend line sometime early next week, I think the bullish engulfing on Friday may have provided this reversal signal already. I will short this on paper if the candlestick is backed up with a drop on Monday. The bottom trend line should provide support, and I think we're looking at a fall of around 15% from 1250 - so maybe a long buy signal at around 1100-1175 depending on the bounce off the bottom trend line.
Dumping my short position will be indicated by the first sign of negative divergence on the MACD, as well as a sub 20 RSI which looks to bottom out then make a move upwards. This is also a buy indicator for anyone going long in the trouser.
Lonmin PLC
This stock is currently positioned in an excellent sideways channel providing good rolling short and long opportunities. The support and resistance on this chart is pretty obvious, however, there is also a minor line at the 3300p mark which you could also trade off if you were lucky enough.
Obviously this will go one of 3 ways soon, and I think the first few days of next week will tell us where. It could drop from the current price like December, fall to the support at 2850p and bounce up, it could go sideways and then up, or it could continue up to the resistance at 3650p.
Divergence has been a good indicator in the past but nothing clear for this next move yet. RSI indicates a possible overbought, and therefore drop, but MACD/MA say buy. Either way don't buy it now, wait for close on Tuesday for evaluation.
The sell point is around 3600p here which is also a shorting position. The buy point/get out short price is the support at 2850. Get in and out before these prices, as apparently these represent psychological barriers in the minds of traders (their targets). Sell at 3595 then!
Tate and Lyle
OK, this one is a little trickier for me, but I'm putting it in. TATE seems to be quite indecisive about trends so forms a series of small ones. The only real identification of a trend I can find is on the 5 year chart, which says up, just not very convincingly!
Anyway, I'm not too sure what to do in a scenario like this so have speculated - and hopefully I'll learn a bit more about charts like these with this play. I'm predicting a movement up next week off the lower trend line, but I'm not 100% on this. My reasons for pessimism are that all of the moving averages have cut through the price and the MACD looks unhappy. The RSI seems to have bottomed out and may make a move though.
One thing about my drawing here - I think the lower trend line should be a little higher, if this is the case then I believe TATE has already broken the upward trend and therefore is in line for a move south.
Portfolio News
I'm still looking for get out oppor-chancities on my current holdings, as they were all bought for the wrong reason.
Stanelco sways gently in a wave of consolidation following last months tsunami. The day traders and market makers are out, and people holding this are investors, shorters, or those who nearly drowned in the waves of excitement. The trading statement and AGM take place on April 28th, where I will be waiting in the wings with a finger over the sell button. Hopefully they are either in profit or working towards it - which should kick the SP up a bit so I can reduce my losses.
Desire had a very interesting Friday afternoon, where it shot up 9% in the final hour of trading. Rockhopper, a fellow Falkland Island oil company, was up 14% for the day. Both of these rises were on no news, which leads me to believe there has been a news leak somewhere along the chain. I am now up 9% on this stock, and will be looking for an RNS on Monday. If there is no news forthcoming I may dump the shares.
Stirling have announced the planned sale of it's US assets for $150mn, which is more than the value of all their stock listed in London. These funds will wipe out their debts and provide capital for ventures elsewhere. The stock was up briefly but is now in the old range. Looking to sell soon.
Imperial Energy Corp is slowly, and I mean slowly, moving up. But these are dangerous times for the holder as these could plummet any time now.
I am also covering with interest the following stocks, whose patterns will be confirmed this week:
ARM, BKG, PMO.
SMDR, SDR, SOLA and VPC are still under watch pending some moves. VPC looks to have broken resistance and could be in for a very interesting few weeks.
You can check the charts of the other stocks at http://uk.finance.yahoo.com
UP
Lonmin PLC (LMI 3,219p)
Tate & Lyle (TATE - 510.50p) * but not sure!
DOWN
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN 144p) *still looking to fall to lower line from last week
AstraZenica (AZN 2,011p)
BG Group (BG- 1,220p)
Morgan Crucible (MGCR - 234.75p) *same situation as ADN
Cadbury Schweppes (CBRY 563p)
You will notice a continuation on ADN and MGCR, both have responded well to my TA from last week and are in line with my expectations. ADN is down 6% from first mention, while MGCR is down a slight from 234.75 to 231. I am 100% confident on ADN, and 85% on MGCR - there seems to be some dilly-dally between 232-228 and the stochastics have taken a slight turn.
BG Group
This is a great swing trading stock (I think..) with high gains and losses in a relatively short time frame, backed up by this strong upward trend. I'm looking for a confirmation of a reversal at the top trend line sometime early next week, I think the bullish engulfing on Friday may have provided this reversal signal already. I will short this on paper if the candlestick is backed up with a drop on Monday. The bottom trend line should provide support, and I think we're looking at a fall of around 15% from 1250 - so maybe a long buy signal at around 1100-1175 depending on the bounce off the bottom trend line.Dumping my short position will be indicated by the first sign of negative divergence on the MACD, as well as a sub 20 RSI which looks to bottom out then make a move upwards. This is also a buy indicator for anyone going long in the trouser.
Lonmin PLC
This stock is currently positioned in an excellent sideways channel providing good rolling short and long opportunities. The support and resistance on this chart is pretty obvious, however, there is also a minor line at the 3300p mark which you could also trade off if you were lucky enough.
Obviously this will go one of 3 ways soon, and I think the first few days of next week will tell us where. It could drop from the current price like December, fall to the support at 2850p and bounce up, it could go sideways and then up, or it could continue up to the resistance at 3650p.
Divergence has been a good indicator in the past but nothing clear for this next move yet. RSI indicates a possible overbought, and therefore drop, but MACD/MA say buy. Either way don't buy it now, wait for close on Tuesday for evaluation.
The sell point is around 3600p here which is also a shorting position. The buy point/get out short price is the support at 2850. Get in and out before these prices, as apparently these represent psychological barriers in the minds of traders (their targets). Sell at 3595 then!
Tate and Lyle
OK, this one is a little trickier for me, but I'm putting it in. TATE seems to be quite indecisive about trends so forms a series of small ones. The only real identification of a trend I can find is on the 5 year chart, which says up, just not very convincingly!
Anyway, I'm not too sure what to do in a scenario like this so have speculated - and hopefully I'll learn a bit more about charts like these with this play. I'm predicting a movement up next week off the lower trend line, but I'm not 100% on this. My reasons for pessimism are that all of the moving averages have cut through the price and the MACD looks unhappy. The RSI seems to have bottomed out and may make a move though.
One thing about my drawing here - I think the lower trend line should be a little higher, if this is the case then I believe TATE has already broken the upward trend and therefore is in line for a move south.
Portfolio News
I'm still looking for get out oppor-chancities on my current holdings, as they were all bought for the wrong reason.
Stanelco sways gently in a wave of consolidation following last months tsunami. The day traders and market makers are out, and people holding this are investors, shorters, or those who nearly drowned in the waves of excitement. The trading statement and AGM take place on April 28th, where I will be waiting in the wings with a finger over the sell button. Hopefully they are either in profit or working towards it - which should kick the SP up a bit so I can reduce my losses.
Desire had a very interesting Friday afternoon, where it shot up 9% in the final hour of trading. Rockhopper, a fellow Falkland Island oil company, was up 14% for the day. Both of these rises were on no news, which leads me to believe there has been a news leak somewhere along the chain. I am now up 9% on this stock, and will be looking for an RNS on Monday. If there is no news forthcoming I may dump the shares.
Stirling have announced the planned sale of it's US assets for $150mn, which is more than the value of all their stock listed in London. These funds will wipe out their debts and provide capital for ventures elsewhere. The stock was up briefly but is now in the old range. Looking to sell soon.
Imperial Energy Corp is slowly, and I mean slowly, moving up. But these are dangerous times for the holder as these could plummet any time now.
I am also covering with interest the following stocks, whose patterns will be confirmed this week:
ARM, BKG, PMO.
SMDR, SDR, SOLA and VPC are still under watch pending some moves. VPC looks to have broken resistance and could be in for a very interesting few weeks.
You can check the charts of the other stocks at http://uk.finance.yahoo.com
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