The Student Loan Ranger

Will be updating the blog layout tonight so apologies if it looks screwed up. Work in progress to make blogging a little easier.

Update:
I have fully migrated the blog, including old posts to the new address at thestudentloanranger.wordpress.com

It's been a good first year with Googles Blogger service but I feel it's time to move on. Update your bookmarks and come have a look.

TSLR

I am on a momumental and unparalleled run of bad luck in my personal life at the moment; even wrecking a brand new white t-shirt 30minutes after I bought it by some choc milk basically exploding all over it - and I buy choc milk and wear white t-shirts all the time - so wtf!? This also means that I can't really clean it because it's a certainty that either it will shrink and be useless, the washing machine will ruin it (as it does everything else) or I won't make it on time to hang it out (upside down, from the bottom) and the shoulders will be stretched as wide as the Grand Canyon.

The list just keeps getting bigger, and I can only imagine that it's getting so big because I am noticing every tiny thing that's going wrong at the moment. So I've bought some EuroMillions tickets for tonights £108million draw, and I expect a sudden and severe change in my luck soon. The probability is that I win and get mugged by a bunch of kids who claim the prize, or the government will introduce a 99.999% tax on lottery winnings the day I claim.

Needless to say with this much terrible luck I am not trading at the moment. If I were I'd still be long UNG on a perfect breakout. I am amazed to see the amount of people on StockTwits who responded to this technical move, rather than anticipate it. Not to be a horn blower but April 4th people;


I would also be keen on DRYS on a pullback to $7.50, yet again with DRYS, watch for the 20ema on the daily with consecutive lower volume days on the decline;


And LDK should it drop go $8.80-$9 on consecutive lower volume days than Thursday, watch the 20/50 on the daily;


Update later;
The run continues. Went for a work out and DRYS bounced off the 20EMA by nearly 50 cents in 5 minutes.

UNG looking really good here. The next level I am looking for is a close above $15 and also like I said the trend is most responsive to the 40EMA, and this is right where UNG is as I write.


Also this rally is just relentless. However it seems clear that some news about the stress test results was leaked today given the action is stocks like BAC:


Spent a little while checking out StockTwits service today, looks good - lots of good ideas but it's so clear that most day traders are sticking with BAC C FAS FAZ SKF SPY SDS and not much else. Going to test the portfolio filter based on my watchlist to see what other people think of my ideas (not that anyone elses opinion matters when you're a trader of course!).

A little too late for a watchlist this week but here are the stocks I'm watching for the next few days. No charts this week as I've got too much happening in my out-of-trading life:

AA - Nice breakout still in an ascending channel and closure over $10

APA - A longer term one for the watchlist, strong day on Monday and it closed first at resistance and second at the 200EMA on the daily. Would love to take a long if this pullsback to $70.

XLY - The trend that I've been following the past 2 weeks remains intact and once more is at the resistance line.

DOV - Still watching for a breakout from last weeks watchlist on DOV at $32.50 and $29.50

DRYS - Still watching from last week as DRYS looks to close a gap at $11.50. Dream trade on a pullback to $7.50 but I'm not sure we'll see it in this cycle.

LDK - Has closed the gap and closed above a resistance point at $9. Waiting for a pullback to the 20 and 50 on the daily chart for entry.

XLB - Beginning to creep out of a consolidation range between $13 and $14.

UNG - Been watching this for ages, double bottom is in place so I'm looking for a movement out of the resistive trendline and over the 40ema here. A retest of $14 would be a strong entry. OK I'll show a chart here, zoomed in 60min to show the bottoming formation;

Very choppy week for me, lots of fake entries in the watchlist too - The money was made in the excellent DRYS and IP trades, big money with small size on great risk reward setups. Gotta catch these!

AirTran Holdings AAI
Terrible action this week and a stop shortly after entering long at $7. Poor to trade.

International Paper IP
Great trade, very predictable considering the strong breakout and a low volume test of such a good number like $10. This trade excelled and it gapped up above the first target level.



Juniper Networks JNPR
Chopped up here too as the first short criteria triggered. Like AAI you'd have been in the profit quick, but since it didn't get running and didn't even get near the targets, you'd have had a small loser on your hands again. I like how JNPR is being supported by the former resistance trendline as it forms a small continuation triangle. A breakout to new highs over $23 still looks good to me.


Dover DOV
I thought earlier this week that DOV triggered the stop at $29.50, but it didn't get there. Busy week and not much attention spent I think. Triggered the long setup number 2 with a scale in at $30. The target was first $32.50, the price was as high as $30.32 so if it was a scale in for half then that's a scale out for half and still holding with a stop still at $29.50, Which I would now move to breakeven at $30. $32.50 for the breakout and $29.50 for the breakdown still remain the key levels.



Prosultra O&G ETF DIG
We are in DIG from Wednesday and it remains a hold despite the choppyness. Needs to remain above $25 in what I think will be a messy week next week.


Dryships DRYS
Both entry criteria were hit this week for DRYS which was a really great setup. The 50EMA bounce off the consolidation lows at $6 was a peach of an entry, and the breakout above $7.25 was also strong (half at each for profit calc). Has not hit the target at $9.50, and I am moving the stop to $8 here.
A pullback to $7.50 would be nice here, especially considering the amount of buyers in the past 2 days.

Adobe ADBE
The cheapness of my entry and risk reward strategies meant that I was 22 cents off catching a wonderful trade in ADBE this week. Abode didn't trigger, and closed the week at triple trendline resistance and on the end of a fully formed ascending (bear) wedge. Still a nice chart and would like a pullback to $25 still.


Energizer ENR
In at ENR at $58, don't like the action here so moved stop to $58.25 expecting a drop.

From the price level list:

• RIG has closed above $69 and my sentiment is bullish only if we can break the resistive trendline on the daily chart from Jan 6th-Friday.
• 36 cents too cheap on the $20 retest on IR which had highs just shy of $23.
• No pullback on EBAY which maintains it's consolidation range of $16-$17 and at the 200EMA on the daily.
• A breakout on EWU and we are long at $11.55, a retest of $11.50-.75 looks like a good long considering the amount of buyers on the breakout.

• MSFT on the $20 retest still holding with stops at $19.75 looking for $22. Strong forces at work as it's pinned between the 200 and 20EMAs on the daily with significant wicking off both.

• A stop out on SOHU as it dropped $2 for the stop and then closed the week at $8 higher.

Results for the week:


Statistically you have to be happy with this, 70% winners and total actual risk not much greater than 2 positions worth. However there are still a lot of holders, so depending on where DRYS opens up the profit could be much lower. Yet again there is some pedigree in the list from this week which boosted the laggards (IP and DRYS). Without those two trades then the profit would be at $350 or so, which is still good enough for me.

For next weeks watchlist I'm looking to focus on stocks at key psychological levels - $10 & $20. There have been several on the watchlists at these levels for the past few weeks, and generally speaking this are the best performers given the buying or selling at such round numbers.

I will also try to keep the full list to 8 for this week, as I feel that's the ideal number for a watchlist - I will have a strong preference for excellence in the setups next week lol as I think it could get choppy.

Watchlist most likely finished on Monday, didn't have time for it this weekend. It's Labour day anyway right?