The Student Loan Ranger

Was out for most of the day today, so haven't traded as much as I wanted. Not really making any gains today, think the heat is a major factor there.

Some nice charts (UAUA and FRE) for later on, once the market is a little less noisy. BAY had a strong rally today, but just didn't get past my trendline and horiz resistance at 247.5 - potentially a gap down then bull rally tomorrow depending on the oil price which is currently recovering from lows.


Evening update:
S&P went into ultra-rally mode to close the afternoon with really nice gains in C and BAC which both cleared recent resistance levels to close at highs. I'm looking for some positivity in RBS tomorrow on the back of that. Also oil ticked up a bit but didn't seem to affect the indices, so I'll be looking at BAY at this 'top of the channel' level for a potential short depending on the crude price in the morning.

TLW is looking nice and I'm looking for a nice range trading opportunity.

11:37 am

BP is assuming the role of captain unpredictable at the moment. I don't like the way this moves, and I think I will remove it from the list. The spread from CMC is killing me with this one - as it seems to do with all the UK stocks. If you're short term then you need a tight spread, and CMCs are very tight - until you open an order ticket to open a position, then it shoots off either side then returns to normal if you don't take a position.

Elsewhere RBS continues to make new daily highs, but does not allow an opening for my new strategy. Tesco is a nice chart to look at, but it's slow with big ranging candlesticks so not easy to get right. Tesco has been shouting at me to enter long this morning, and I haven't - not sure why, but it's now up 6p from the double bottom earlier in the day. It is pushing up against the 100EMA at the moment, so a potential short in the works here.

I had a look at the Volkswagen chart and that looks nice and clean so I might include that later this week. BAY is still the nicest chart to trade in Europe I think - very predictable through all the time frames. At the moment on the 15min chart it's shaping up for an entry long in the next hour or so. Siemens looking nice today, Nokia and Total have a lot of bad/no data today which is annoying.

770 is the key price for Tullow - 3 times in the past 3 days its struck and moved up, it's forming a descending wedge on the 5min chart, and I'm waiting for a breakout either side for entry - but I'm bullish.

As always I'm waiting for 2:30 for the US markets to open, so I can actually make some trades.

Evening update:
I missed out on the easiest £320 in my life today by closing a short on Fannie Mae way way way too quickly. I closed within 50 seconds because of an instant reverse which led to a loss above my 'new strategy' threshold. £40 loss would have been £320 profit if I had the plums to stick with it. That's happened way too often the past 3 days and that is something I really need to work on if I want to be successful. By the way I also closed at the highest possible exit after my original entry.

Anyway I just wanted to focus on something that seems to be the easiest thing to profit on: morning gaps. Stocks always gravitate back to the gap, or the high from the previous day. I see it all the time, particularly in the US financials at the moment. A gap up and a short rally is brought to an end sharply, and then the sell-off continues through the day, where at some point the gap is closed. Like I mentioned earlier to

A chart or two (including Fannie Mae)



I mentioned earlier in the day that I liked how Tesco was shaping up. It's a very clean cut stock in terms of it's movements, and today was a nice textbook example of support and resistance. Given the state of oil and the financials, a stock like Tesco is poised nicely, because everybody needs to eat. Also, Tesco do buy one get one free and Asda don't so I'm sold on that.

The Volkswagen chart is also very crisp, and is another welcomed addition to my Euro hitlist. It's goodbye to Vodafone and potentially RBS. There is a lot of money to be made with RBS, but it's the kind of stock that gives confirmation to go one way - and then unlike every other stock in the world - it reverses straight away. There is no safe position in a stock like that.

As for tomorrow I will not be trading until 2:30pm. I'm beginning to realise that although the Euro stocks are quite nice to trade - they don't do anything worthwhile until the US market news is out and after the US markets have opened. The FTSE is a total joke in terms of independence.

I'm continuing my new strategy into next week, it was a good week last week except for Friday - where I gave some back on tilt and not really following my own rules. I have included BP and Tullow Oil into the European watchlist this week.

I feel I needed some big cap exposure in oil for the Euro stocks, which BP provides nicely. Tullow Oil is an inclusion based on the technical indicators I'm reading into the chart, basically a gap closer above the 200MA with some nice hammers ending the week off:

Euro hitlist this week now is:

• NOK, SIE, BAY, RBS, TLW, BP., FRE.

US Hitlist:

• C, BAC, X, MON, DELL, UAUA, RIG, GE, GM.

As per usual there are a few I'm just watching - including Tesco as a possible Euro day trader. I will also start watching Baidu and Google a little more closely. I'm starting to get used to Apples movements too so this could be traded this week.

I have changed timescales on Monsanto to 15min, and US Steel to 10min. RBS is now 5min.

Keep an eye out for intra-day updates, there could be a lot this week. I am going to Crete for a week on Thursday, so Wednesdays posts will be the last until August 4th.

Man, I am so annoyed. I just spent ages writing a huge blog and then Blogger logged me out after I published it and didn't upload it.

Assume a nice week for trading, a bad Friday and lots of action that I don't have time to write about twice.

Slight rotation on the US hitlist.

Stupid Blogger!

RBS is totally untradable at times. Today I entered at support of the EMA, 5 seconds later it went to auction, and 10 seconds later it dropped off all support completely. Chart to follow.

First trade of the day was a bad one, good job I've got another 7 hours to go.

Getting killed by RBS, cutting losses quickly but this stock literally reverses as soon as you enter. The UK market is not a profitable market until the US market is open. At least I'll get long lies in. The thing that's really killing me this morning is CMCs spread, when you're in a trade it just shoots off by .3 or .4 in the direction you need to close in, which is pathetic.

CMC spread in black, actual market depth red and green.

This makes me wonder why CMC even offer "real-time market depth" as a selling point - because it isn't even close to the real L2 in terms of price, volume or flow.

All is quiet on the Western front this morning, so I'll cover a few charts and news from Yesterday - which was another great day for trading. There is a lot of buoyancy in the markets at the moment, predominantly sparked by the crashing oil prices. The financials are picking up nicely, so the rest of the market is doing the same.

There was a tremendous rally in the states yesterday as the oil reserves were announced and were higher than anticipated - this briefly tilted the scales in favour of the supply side, thus sending the price lower.

Prior to the news I filled out some order tickets for BAY and TSO (Airline/Refiner), and got ready to hit either sell or buy. The news was good so I was long in BAY and TSO. TSO was a shorter term play, as it tends to react nicely and then tail off quite soon after. BAY traded nicely, I sold out due to my current rules - and would have tripled holding into this morning.

Here are a few charts from yesterday, X and C are very nice on a technical level.


I'm waiting for the post-lunch movements and the US market opening before getting into anything today. The S&P is really taking off pre-market so I expect some good trading in C and BAC today. I will also look to open positions in X and MON depending on their sectors.

I've started to notice something exploitable about SIE and NOK - they tend to move very slowly, and then make very explosive moves at the key decision points. There have been 2 times this week where all the factors have come down to a single point, and they have both rapidly gained over €1.

I was busy writing this blog when they made their moves today, so hopefully I will catch their moves next time.

It was a very boring day today until about 15:30. I crashed out at lunch time, and by the time I was back at the desk I had missed some good shorts on VOD and RBS.

I was watching the S&P charts while watching DayTraderRockStar, and noticed the buying volume coming into the game. I jumped in BAC for a quick profit and exited selling at highs, thinking it would retrace - and it did, but I did not reverse because the market is moving really fast at the moment.

The bigger news however was oil, down $8, so I immediately opened a long in BAY, and it went absolutely parabolic! Check out the chart:


Update, I missed the re-entry on BAY it's at 215.75 but oil is retracing at the market is closed. Depending on how oil trades for the rest of the day, BAY could be a high risk leading into tomorrow so I'm glad I'm out.

It's not only airlines that are affected by the shifts in oil price, here are another 2 charts from the same time frame as my BAY trade. Remember I mentioned oil producers and oil refiners are tradeable on big oil news:



If the OIL price is down:

• Go LONG: Airlines, Car makers and Refiners.
• Go SHORT: Oil exploration, Gold and Oil services.

Also note that drops in oil leads to rallies across the markets, so look for good relative strength stocks with volatility to trade in the very short term.

Terrific start to my new methods: Broker platform broken.

Can you believe it?

I can.

Update 11:20
Good day so far in terms of new strategy. The only issue is an early exit on Nokia. Quite a lot of news surrounding airline support services today, and on the US open I expect some good market sentiment towards Boeing and United Technologies. These aren't on my watchlist, but these types of companies could boost the index.

I have 2 really nice charts to post later, absolute technical perfection on the Nokia and Siemens charts from this morning between 10-11am. I was in Nokia and offloaded too quickly. Nokia and Siemens move similarly, however Nokia precedes Siemens in the moves so that is something worth exploiting in the future.

Had a nice trade in BAY earlier too, and had a good exit, but there are no indicators to reverse at the moment in terms of risk:reward.

I am currently tracking VOD and waiting for an entry there based on the moving averages golden cross. The overhead resistance at 149.25 is quite stern today so I will no enter until that is broken. GSK is really struggling with the MA at the moment, however there is some concrete support just below the current price, and therefore the range is not tradeable at the moment.

I just took a long in VOD

Dropped the VOD for tiny profit, it reversed.

Evening update:
Didn't spent too much time trading this afternoon, it was roasting outside.

Anyway here's the Siemens chart from earlier, the TA on my Nokia chart has mysteriously dissapeared from my platform (they're just so reliable!)


You can see the nice MA rejection, then finding support at the SR line, and then making moves of the fastlines, past the 200EMA and right up to the longer term trend line. It started to flag for the rest of the day, and jumped down a bit at closing. I'm keen for a long if the flag range is broken off the MA, otherwise it's a short to 69.4.

Had a trade in Citigroup earlier, yet again cashed in far far too quickly and it would have been more than my daily profit target had I held.

Not quite a Crystal Balling post, but a general rundown of my setup for the coming week for those interested.

My pool of stocks this week, firstly those from Europe (8am-4:30pm):

• British Airways
• Siemens
  
• Royal Bank of Scotland
  
• GlaxoSmithKline
  
• TOTAL
• Nokia
• Vodafone

And American (2:30pm-9pm):

• United States Steel
• Bank of America
• Citigroup
• Monstanto
• Google
• Transocean
• Microsoft
• General Electric
• Cisco
  

Dependent on market sentiment and oil prices this also includes:

• Oil refiners (Valero, Tosero)
  
• Airlines (Delta, UA)
• Solars
  
• Oil services/exploration (Halliburton, Exxon)
  
• Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae on potential recovery plays with a very small position
  

The first 2 lists are my core for this week, and I have spent a lot of hours today and yesterday on my technical analysis for this week.

My main timeframe this week will be the 15 minute chart, while referencing the daily for specific patterns, and the 30 minute for confirmation of entry and exit.

The main patterns and entry/exits I am looking for this week are:

• Flags
• Re-tested double bottoms/tops
• Wedge breakouts
• Moves off line of ambiguity
• Strong trend reversals
• Expansion breakouts
• Cup and handle
  

1. My exit criteria is from support or resistance area, to resistance or support area. This depends greatly on whether the stock is in a wedge/channel or has broken a pattern which has a pre-defined exit point anyway.
2. Where there are any gray areas after entry, my stop will be the previous bars low. In all other cases I will trail the stop judging by support and resistance areas.
3. I will also be using the 25, 50 and 100MAs, as well as the 250 on BAY, BAC, C and X.
4. My position size will be dependant on margin, however I will probably use a third of what I would normall enter with.

Of all weeks trading so far, I think I have spent the most prep-time on this one. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail and all of that.

I will upload my trades on Wed and Sat so keep an eye out.

My top 3 rules for this week

1. Follow the rules you idiot!
   
2. Do not fear the retracement
3. Take the money and run
   

Going through the motions here, haven't really looked at anything on the list since Wednesday. New strategies etc mean a watchlist like this isn't really effective, but let's wrap it up quickly anyway.

• BRWM - Failed 200MA, about to trigger a short.
• ADN gave out short signal under 115m but this could be a fakeout
  
• AGK has done as expected and dropped to 660, let's see if it off this moves next week
• Perfect setup on GSK, 100% accuracy trade as it did what it said on the tin
• ADM just triggered a short entry on the closing bell on Friday
• No signal on AMEC as it looks to retest support at 855 again and holding up
• Descending wedge on BAY tightens, possible new all time lows as oil price soars here
• Would have caught a ST long on EXPN, but this dropped hard on Friday, potential breakdown
• FGP had strong gains until it hit my trend line and crashed hard
• IEC untradable at the moment
• MPI and SDR both on the verge of a similar breakdown
• No signals on IMI this week

The news about Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) in the US hit all the markets hard on Friday, with a lot of indices really crashing hard on the news, despite the shares gaining 50% on their daily lows. FNM and FRE were once $70 stocks in the last 7 months, both are now around $7.

RBS has hit another new low as it crashed hard below 200. The FTSE had a bit of a shocker, even as the US markets came back during Friday. Oil price is at another record high - this is why everything is so dangerous to hold overnight at the moment.

The price of oil only moves to new highs when the US and European markets are closed - therefore if you hold financials or anything oil related (airlines, car manufacturers etc) then you will get smashed at the open. There are no stocks that are safe to hold overnight, and certainly not over a weekend.

In my opinion, all this stuff about Iran is just hype, and they will not attack. Why would they? And why is ok for the US to have nuclear power and weapons but nobody else, the US would use them if they had to too.

Anyway, geo-political issues are driving the market more than ever, so you have a lot of action to monitor while you're trading. This is why I have setup my stall completely different over the next few weeks, until all the business is settled.

If you check these posts: here and here then you can read up on my new tactics and stocklist. Unfortunately this means no Crystal Balling posts, which is good for me as I need as much time as possible for analysis. I will try to post some trade analysis on the intra-day posts to let you know how I'm attacking the markets.

I'm looking forward to trading clearer markets once a bottom has been established, and the volatility has been reduced - but the scalp option is the only option at the moment.

This tactic seems to be working quite well at the moment, as well as the strategy I mentioned yesterday, I've reduced my usual position size by about 3/4.

I've noticed that since I've started covering these stocks, I've hardly spent anytime watching the UK market - and I feel a lot better for it. The stress in trading has been significantly reduced.

Today I'm trading BAY which I think could be a candidate for inclusion in the top 25 given I don't really have any airlines in it. BAY is a solid stock, and todays paper trade is based on the fact that it has recently gapped down at open and recovered. The 196/200 range is strong support here too.

I'm spending a lot of time analysing US stocks, the movements are a more free flowing than the UK stocks I tend to watch. I'm going to continue this method throughout the day, and then spend some quality time on the weekend going through the 30 minute charts looking for some very clear setups.

For anyone who plays poker, the style I play most is "slow play", where I'll slowly add to my position when I have strongly implied odds or a nut hand. Generally, I don't try to buy the pot out, rather I'll make bets that people will see, or I'll call bets based on a pot:odds ratio. In the latter stages of play, I'll raise my opponent or fake a buy out. This usually amounts to a bigger prize pool, and 9/10 times I'll win the pot. I'm trying to apply this to trading, as in starting small and constantly calculating my odds of success, while looking for solid albeit not spectacular profits.

Off all the time I've been learning the game, this week has provided the biggest lessons.

OK in this kind of markets it's best so take a step back, and try to figure out strategies that could work out for you. Last night I drafted up a list of about 25 companies from around the world, that are either "best of breed" stocks, or the major cap players in the bigger exchanges.

I've also configured them nicely into a new CMC layout, while also watching the Nikkei, Hang Seng, FTSE, S&P and DAX. I've really got to start focusing on what the major indices are doing, as well as the more important commodities such as Oil, Metals and Wheat.

I will be paper testing my new strategy today and tomorrow, to see if it covers different sectors and indices on different days.

The list of companies:
AT&T, BHP Billiton (AU), Bank of America, General Electric, Microsoft, Siemens (DE), Monsanto, GSK (UK), Vodafone (UK), PetroChina, Exxon, Gazprom (RU), Proctor & Gamble, Electricite de France (FR), Google, Petroleo Brasil (BRA), Cisco Systems, US Steel, Toyota (JP), Nokia (FL), Total (FR), Transocean and Citigroup.

My strategy for the rest of the week is pattern and indicator plays based on the 30 and 15 minute charts, depending on volatility. I will also choose a stock I have previously mentioned, and use technical analysis on the 5 minute chart.

My decision is based mostly on the fact that I believe scalping is the best way to profit from the current market.

Trades thus far today:

Total (FP) - FR

Started watching this when the 50.3 support was forming. It was a clear wedge, and I was initially bullish when I looked at the divergence on the MACD. However, on the same low the MACD stayed the same, unlike it had done preceding this.

I took a short just as the price moved out of the wedge, and I later covered on a return of the divergence and a double bottom. While not hugely profitable, it was a confidence booster. I should have closed and reversed.

Barrat Developments (BDEV) - UK


BDEV had formed the cup and part of the handle by the time I started tracking this. Gaps are always supposed to be filled, and this filled nicely as it bounced off the gap price. This ultra-long and tight wedge that followed indicated that the stock was ready to breakout nicely, and this cup and handle formation is a nice pattern to have in the arsenal.

It was quite protracted, however it broke quietly and I immediately took a position at 60.25. My initial price target was 65-66 - and I decided to trail a stop at the previous bars close. After this I expected a retracement to 60, or the 50MA which has been looking good in this timeframe.

My trailing stop was triggered at 64, after a rally-high at 64.74 which represents a 6% return. I'm pleased with how that turned out and I will use that setup again.

Vodafone (VOD) - UK

This trade isn't currently quite working out as expected. The 250MA is providing good support/resistance on the 15 minute chart, and I predicted that it would bounce off this - and it did briefly by a few pence.

Since this screenshot it has dropped to 153.28 and off the 250MA. This would normally be a sell signal, but some leeway has to be given with MAs, and also the current volatility in this market as this could easily be a fake out. Drops off 153 clean are a better sell signal in this timeframe.

I'm out the game for the rest of the week. 6 losers in a row in a market that just cannot make up it's mind = a no brainer decision.

FTSE flat on the day stocks down 5%, FTSE down 5% on the day and stocks are up 1%, FTSE up 0.2% stocks up 6%. Oil up $3 airlines surge, Oil drops off airlines stagnant. Financials rally and fall on nothing. Definate window dressing in the housebuilders trading statements too. Metal prices making new highs so steel stocks sell-off.

Anyway, this seems to be the state of play this week:

1. Technical Analysis does not work in the current market
2. Support and resistance are non existant in the current market
3. Momentum does not apply in the current market
4. Holding overnight is insane in the current market (you will not be right either short or long)
5. Buying strength does not work in the current market, nor does buying weakness
   
6. Selling weakness or selling strength does not work in the current market
7. Nobody has a clue what the market is going to do next
8. There is no such thing as good news in the current market.
   
9. The flip of a coin is statistically a better entry decision at the moment than using a traditional stock picking method.
   

Back next week, confidence is king and when you don't have any, you can't rule.

PSN trading statement looks dressed up - they haven't written down the value of any of their land, which just isn't possible. This could go up briefly, but with the rest of the housebuilders reporting this week, this sector is in big trouble.

Apart from that, opening auctions on a few stocks look quite bearish. CBG has just given a sell signal.

...

Woah, ok, it's a massacre in the market this morning, BAY opened up down 3.9% and I should be stopped out of that. Elsewhere ADN is down 3.6% (sell trigger), MPI down 6%, sell trigger on SGRO, EXPN sell trigger.

This is all on a flat FTSE.

Update 12:30 - This chart is a summation of the horrible trading conditions at the moment:


I took a big hit on this stock this morning. I even tried to cancel my stop this morning because I thought the drop was overdone, but CMC didn't accept, and actually executed the sell 1.5 points below my stop.

Update 15:30
BAY hit a daily high of 216.75, I'm angry and on tilt.

FTSE opened strongly and pulled all stocks with it. Since dropping 0.5% from highs, a lot of stocks have dropped off, but from my watchlist 4 are in the red. A lot of the double bottom or wedge plays looked ok this morning, but they are really in the balance now as the move up then down.

MPI, EXPN and AGK are the bigger winners this morning from the list- however their gains were made in the opening auction and haven't really followed through. There doesn't seem to be much momentum either way this morning either.

I took a long in BAY based on lowering oil prices and KLM announcing strong passenger numbers this morning, also it bounced nicely off the support this morning. It backfired immediately as I entered at the high for the day. I have a limit and a stop in place at the moment, and I intend to see this trade out.

I feel that TLPR wants to give me a trigger to short, the only thing holding this stock at the moment is the fact that so far today, the index is blue. CBG is also trying to keep it's head above water, it's flat on an up day for the FTSE which is a bad sign for longs. ADN is holding support well, and GSK is really struggling with 1188 these past 4 days.

I'm going to leave the desk for a few hours, and let the dust settle and come back later to look at some charts for some better entry points.

Update 10:00
Market crashed really hard in the past 10 minutes. Sell signal triggered on TLPR and I have a position. My BAY position looks quite bad at the moment, if this support is breached it's a very strong signal to reverse. FTSE about to turn red on the day after being up 0.8% earlier.

Update 16:00
Solid bounce off the support for BAY which is now up 5.3% on the day. TLPR is being awkward and I'm at a loss on that at the moment, but there is still some way to go before I get stopped out.

The best performer from the list by a mile is FGP, which surprises me. It opened up and then dropped off, then bounced off a nice former resistance line at about 9:30 and has just been going up all day, currently at 6.8%.

2 monitors is really essential. Also, while I mainly use 5 minute charts intra-day for me entry and exits, the 30 minute charts look the best for short term swing trading. This is something I need to exploit in the future.

I'm glad I've learned from last week about getting nervous with the trigger. Last week I might have sold out for a loss this morning when I was down £120 on BAY, I didn't, and the position has swung to a £50 gain. BAY is currently flagging and I'm waiting for a movement out of it before reconsidering my position. If it breaks down I'm looking for support at about 203.75. Most of the airlines seem to be doing OK in the states, with many noting increased passenger numbers which is a good thing for the industry.

Nightly note:
PSN issue a trading statement tomorrow and I'm expecting a serious, serious bloodbath.

I'm preparing an absolute monster watchlist this week. I really need to cut it down, as I feel that it's better to have a slimline watchlist so you can really focus on your entry points.

I will update this post tomorrow night with all my technical analysis, but for the meantime, the following stocks are promoted, demoted, or maintain their place:

SGRO SIG TLPR AFR CBG XTA INCH

FXPO SCHE DGO WPP ENRC RNVO

BRWM ADN ADM AGK AMEC BAY EXPN IEC IPR MPI SDR GSK IMI

That's a lot of additions, but most are alert prices only. Check back tomorrow for all the action.

Blackrock (BRWM)
Steady upward trend, holding 200MA quite well. This stock closed at highs on Friday. I would consider entry now, but it's probably better to see if it breaks 710 first, along with some good buying volume. Stochastics lining up ok with the trend line at the moment.

I'm bullish here, however a breakdown of the 200MA, combined with more sellers and a drop below 600 is my signal to short.

Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN)
It's good to visit old friends, and ADN is a pretty nice looking chart these days. Very clear descending wedge, also in a sideways channel between 115 and 150. I think we can use these prices as the short and long entries. I am bearish on ADN at the moment, as the sector isn't doing too well.

A double bottom on Thu/Fri duplicated the same event from the start of June - and this support, strong so far, is looking weak. If it shorts, then I expect a medium/long drop to about 90p.

I'm suffering another slow-broadband Saturday - I don't know why this always happens, but my internet is hardly any faster than the old dial-up on a Saturday morning and afternoon. I'll probably be impatient with uploading images and stuff.

Anyway, good watchlist in terms of triggers and signals - but bad because I missed out on trading a lot of them. The volatility in the FTSE this week meant that I had to draft a new watchlist for Fridays trading, because the stocks that had made their moves were pretty untradable by Thursday in terms of risk:reward ratios.

Next weeks CB should feature some heavy rotation, and should also feature some of the stocks mentioned on Thursdays intra-day watchlist posting Re: Friday.

Signet (SIG)
This was a straight forward descending wedge play - with 50p representing the key price. Most of these wedges are failing to hold support at the moment, and I expected a breakdown on SIG.

The price was triggered on Monday with the lows of 43p on Wednesday. SIG should re-test 50p on the coming week or so, therefore I would place a stop at about 53p but would also consider closing out at 43p if hit, as that represents a quick and solid profit trade. In the short term, SIG continues to reject the 10MA strongly, and next week could see some further drops in price.

Southern Cross (SCHE)
A sensational week, and one where I seriously regretted not catching this on the blatant short signal last Friday. The triple bottom descending wedge was broken on Friday - and the short trigger for Monday was sub 310p. I was nothing but bearish on this stock on the CB post.

SCHE had a horror week, and at lows, the price was slashed by 80%. It opened up down about 65% on Monday on the back of a horror trading statement and I made some quick cash on this on Monday morning. Had I continued to hold, I would have been in the blue to the tune of about £4000 a few hours later.

The shackles were put on this by Wednesday afternoon, where until Friday around lunch it consolidated and recovered, until it crashed again. I missed the intra-day breakdown because I had taken it off my watchlist - but SCHE has provided some excellent trading opportunities, short and long this week.

Tullet Prebon (TLPR)
I love a descending wedge at the moment, there is no setup stronger than this given the bear market we're trading through at the moment, it is funny to see the shift in balance over the past few months with the strength of different patterns, as not too long ago I was a bull-flag and channel man. All 3 new additions to the watchlist were D.Wedges, all 3 gave sell signals and all 3 were successful trades thus far.

I was looking initially at a long in TLPR, but our short signal at sub 400 triggered on Wednesday and it closed at 384 on Friday. We are double-bottomed at this level for the past 2 days so for another entry I would wait for this quick support to be breached before opening another short.

Afren (AFR)
3 weeks on the watchlist and this week we got our entry signal - a short. After strong gains, AFR had found a consolidation range between 160 and 180. These prices represented an entry depending on which way the price broke out. Tuesday gave the trigger, as AFR breached 160 and dropped to close the week just above lows, at 142.

AFR has bounced sharply intra-day off 138 - so in terms of a re-entry short I would look for a breach of this price, which also represents the original breakout and support on retracement at the end of April.

Eurasian (ENRC)
I was surprised by the moves in ENRC this week. Last week we successfully traded the 1300-1500 range. Moves out of this bracket also indicated an entry long or short. Tuesday gave our short signal on a breach of 1300, and ENRC was hammered down to lows of 1020.

This is a tricky one to call now, and probably not a good trade until we can establish a more solid support line. I think the new range will be 1000-1300 in the short term at least. Look for moves following Fridays inside day.

Dragon Oil (DGO)
Made some moves and has retraced this week too. Entry was moves above 440, which came on Monday. It has retraced to 454 after highs at 490. I am bullish on DGO given the imminent golden cross in the fast lines, but I didn't enjoy watching this stock this week, the spreads and book aren't the best, and CMC Markets were very slow off the mark when I tried to enter at 441 and didn't offer me a competitive price given the book at that time. No chart needed here.

Ferrexpo (FXPO)
Entry trigger was breaks of 400, we got that this week on Monday, and this crashed to 328 in a nightmare week for metal stocks. I see 280 as the only real support for FXPO in the medium term, and 350 should prove stern resistance on the retracement. Inside day on Friday could prove interesting.

I will keep monitoring this one, as the movements come quickly and aggressively - a good form of volatility imo.

Renovo (RNVO)
No signals here, as RNVO continues to reject 40p.

WPP Group (WPP)
Gave a short signal on Monday, and has continued this waterfall breakdown. Looking grim, and this has a long way to go in terms of a retracement to prior support. A £1 recovery will see this happen, but I can only be a bear for WPP given the current climates.

Close Brothers (CBG)
Been watching this for a while, initially I was bullish given proximity to support as well as a good set of indicators - stochastics, adx and macd were encouraging. However, I have become bearish because it hasn't moved yet - and it should have by now imo.

The 20EMA was hit and rejected this week as the stock struggles to break 550. Twice lately it has dropped to sub 500, and it closed near lows on Friday. I will continue to monitor with an entry to short at 496 and I expect this to come on Monday. CBG has halved in value this year, and I see no reason why this trend should not continue.


From the ALERTS section:

• XTA hit the 200MA square on the jaw and bounced off quite nicely. Expecting more gains next week.

• RRS made further gains this week, as it broke a short term downward trend. Broke the 50MA well as predicted and hit the first price target at 2400 bang on.

• BG. is barely holding the 100MA, at it's low, it was 1p off triggering a short signal and I'm feeling bearish on drops below 1190 next week. Watch for the wick bounce though.

• CNE didn't give a signal either, as it messes around between our trigger prices. Dangerously close to a short signal on breaks of 2975 this week.

• Same story for PMO, 100MA still important.

• No trigger on REL, SVT or SHB - all look quite negative at the moment.

• Sell signal on INCH after breaking 315 and closing out at 291.

• SGRO triggered and is down a matter of pence on the entry.

Another 100% week on trigger price being followed through in the opening direction. I'm going to rotate a lot of stocks this week on both elements of the watchlist. At the moment DGO, RNVO and SCHE are probably off the core list. XTA is the only stock from the alerts section to be upgraded, and next week will probably see a very different alerts section.

From memory, BDEV and RDW have trading statements this week. They will be terrible, and if they follow the other house builders, then the market will react very badly and they should drop more, if that's even possible.

For me, next week will be about timing my entries and exits better.

I'm using a new strategy this morning: enter a trade and leave the desk.

I'm long on XTA and short on WEIR for today. I am going to hold XTA for the next week, as it has bounced quite nicely off the 200MA as per my analysis and there has been some institutional investment in the stock this morning too.

I will evaluate WEIR at about 15:30, as this is having an inside day, very small trading range. I get the feeling I am right with my short, but with all the volatility in the market, it could potentially spike up on Monday thus I am reluctant to hold over the weekend. Given the strong selling pressure, this could just represent a very small 180, while it takes a breather, before continuing with the drops next week.

CBG is gearing up for a sell signal, also AFR - I don't know how I missed this but it's at 138p (sell signal was 160p). These are the kind of movements that make me want to trade more mechanically, as I would be in and out by now without really doing anything. TLPR is also registering a sell signal as I write - but there are some sizeable orders on the book providing support, so I'm reluctant to enter until these are cleared.

Seems a quiet day today, probably because I'm not really watching the market. FTSE down 0.5%, nothing major happening. Most of the gainers and losers this morning have been small cap energy stocks. A few of the coal stocks look to be moving up following retracements.

Update 13:00
Having a pretty decent day, mostly because I'm in profit, and partly because I'm starting to get more effective with TA in shorter timescales. I've taken profits in WEIR, I sold at the bottom today and have watched it rally up to prior support - I might re-enter if it rejects these levels.

My XTA is still looking ok, as it forms an ascending wedge and is just topping at 3757 - a level I might sell at, again if it is rejected. Going to see if it holds 10 and 20MAs first before selling. I said I would let this run, and I have, but it has really struggled at this price all day.

The thing that is most annoying is that ADVFN is down, and I can't access my L2 service at the moment.

OK I've just sold out, it's rejecting that strongly. I don't have the book in front of me so I can't check the strength of the rejection, but better safe than sorry and with profits locked in. It's not best to reverse position without the book, however I will re-enter on a break of this resistance, which should confirm the start of a good 2 week rally.

The rally on WEIR looks in trouble as it hits a series of inside bars with a triple top. I think this could hit resistance at priot support of ¬847 before dropping again.

Bit of indecision on XTA at the moment, this could pop anytime soon.

Two words for today: SELL OFF!!

Sea of red yet again following the smashing of the US markets last night. Made my bread this morning again in the first 20 minutes - as usual prob sold out early. Turned my CHTR into a profit and had a quick entry/exit in PUB too.

Currently short on EXPN for the next few hours. I'm not even considering any longs in any stocks at the moment, you'd be crazy too with this kind of selling pressure.

Update 11:00
I'm having a pretty passive day today, there's a lot of swinging going on at the moment, so I've just picked a few charts, and I'm waiting till about lunch time to see what kind of channels they will be in.

My EXPN trade was bad and I stopped out pretty quick, and a good job too because it reversed very quickly. I just missed out on a CHTR trade because my brokers response time wasn't quick enough and it had dropped to my target by the time my price came in.

I'll post a few intra-day charts with some stuff on them, this is what I'm watching while I'm messing around in my room:


Evening update:
The markets really just didn't know what to do today. I'm scratching my watchlist for tomorrow, because it's just too risky to be trading at the moment, especially on stocks that have made moves.

Tomorrow I'm going to focus on GSK, PFD, XTA, IMI, WEIR, IEC, SGRO, DES and SVT. Some are from the alerts section, but most of these are new and represent pretty straight forward plays, and the market will really dictate where these go tomorrow.

DES is by far the most interesting. It is a stock I was heavily involved in for quite a while at the start of my campaign - and today it slashed 20% off the price, after triggering a sell signal yesterday.

I am looking for continued momentum tomorrow or a bounce. This is all on the back of no news so I suspect some heavy manipulation is at play, as it closed with a 12% spread.

What I didn't like about today, was that the stocks that have had severe selling pressure for the past month had strong bull days with huge ranges - you can't even call an inside day or a 180 on these. Also, the stocks performing near highs did the reverse, and sold off quite strong while the FTSE gained 0.9% and finished the day on a double top. This could either crash hard, or continue the momentum into tomorrow morning.

A couple of stocks I watched in the US - TSO and HAL, were totally slaughtered in the morning, gained back on a strong 2 hour rally, and then gave it all back to finish flat. It was a half day stateside, so I'm not sure how much bearing that will have on tomorrows FTSE.

Here's a few more setups for tomorrow, starting with XTA which has hit the important 200MA:


WEIR is looking to drop down and out after a down day. 860 and 800 are key prices, while in the short term at least the trading range is 900-800. I'm bearish.


GSK is looking good. A breakout confirmed today on good volume. I'd look to enter at 1185 tomorrow, with 1200 representing a sticky patch until a price target around 1275. I'm bullish.


Oh forgot to mention, and this just sums it all up:

• Stocks making yearly highs: 4
• Stocks making yearly lows: 240

I think that means that about 11% of the stocks on the London Stoch Exchange are making 52 week lows. Can you believe that!?