The Student Loan Ranger

Will be updating the blog layout tonight so apologies if it looks screwed up. Work in progress to make blogging a little easier.

Update:
I have fully migrated the blog, including old posts to the new address at thestudentloanranger.wordpress.com

It's been a good first year with Googles Blogger service but I feel it's time to move on. Update your bookmarks and come have a look.

TSLR

I am on a momumental and unparalleled run of bad luck in my personal life at the moment; even wrecking a brand new white t-shirt 30minutes after I bought it by some choc milk basically exploding all over it - and I buy choc milk and wear white t-shirts all the time - so wtf!? This also means that I can't really clean it because it's a certainty that either it will shrink and be useless, the washing machine will ruin it (as it does everything else) or I won't make it on time to hang it out (upside down, from the bottom) and the shoulders will be stretched as wide as the Grand Canyon.

The list just keeps getting bigger, and I can only imagine that it's getting so big because I am noticing every tiny thing that's going wrong at the moment. So I've bought some EuroMillions tickets for tonights £108million draw, and I expect a sudden and severe change in my luck soon. The probability is that I win and get mugged by a bunch of kids who claim the prize, or the government will introduce a 99.999% tax on lottery winnings the day I claim.

Needless to say with this much terrible luck I am not trading at the moment. If I were I'd still be long UNG on a perfect breakout. I am amazed to see the amount of people on StockTwits who responded to this technical move, rather than anticipate it. Not to be a horn blower but April 4th people;


I would also be keen on DRYS on a pullback to $7.50, yet again with DRYS, watch for the 20ema on the daily with consecutive lower volume days on the decline;


And LDK should it drop go $8.80-$9 on consecutive lower volume days than Thursday, watch the 20/50 on the daily;


Update later;
The run continues. Went for a work out and DRYS bounced off the 20EMA by nearly 50 cents in 5 minutes.

UNG looking really good here. The next level I am looking for is a close above $15 and also like I said the trend is most responsive to the 40EMA, and this is right where UNG is as I write.


Also this rally is just relentless. However it seems clear that some news about the stress test results was leaked today given the action is stocks like BAC:


Spent a little while checking out StockTwits service today, looks good - lots of good ideas but it's so clear that most day traders are sticking with BAC C FAS FAZ SKF SPY SDS and not much else. Going to test the portfolio filter based on my watchlist to see what other people think of my ideas (not that anyone elses opinion matters when you're a trader of course!).

A little too late for a watchlist this week but here are the stocks I'm watching for the next few days. No charts this week as I've got too much happening in my out-of-trading life:

AA - Nice breakout still in an ascending channel and closure over $10

APA - A longer term one for the watchlist, strong day on Monday and it closed first at resistance and second at the 200EMA on the daily. Would love to take a long if this pullsback to $70.

XLY - The trend that I've been following the past 2 weeks remains intact and once more is at the resistance line.

DOV - Still watching for a breakout from last weeks watchlist on DOV at $32.50 and $29.50

DRYS - Still watching from last week as DRYS looks to close a gap at $11.50. Dream trade on a pullback to $7.50 but I'm not sure we'll see it in this cycle.

LDK - Has closed the gap and closed above a resistance point at $9. Waiting for a pullback to the 20 and 50 on the daily chart for entry.

XLB - Beginning to creep out of a consolidation range between $13 and $14.

UNG - Been watching this for ages, double bottom is in place so I'm looking for a movement out of the resistive trendline and over the 40ema here. A retest of $14 would be a strong entry. OK I'll show a chart here, zoomed in 60min to show the bottoming formation;

Very choppy week for me, lots of fake entries in the watchlist too - The money was made in the excellent DRYS and IP trades, big money with small size on great risk reward setups. Gotta catch these!

AirTran Holdings AAI
Terrible action this week and a stop shortly after entering long at $7. Poor to trade.

International Paper IP
Great trade, very predictable considering the strong breakout and a low volume test of such a good number like $10. This trade excelled and it gapped up above the first target level.



Juniper Networks JNPR
Chopped up here too as the first short criteria triggered. Like AAI you'd have been in the profit quick, but since it didn't get running and didn't even get near the targets, you'd have had a small loser on your hands again. I like how JNPR is being supported by the former resistance trendline as it forms a small continuation triangle. A breakout to new highs over $23 still looks good to me.


Dover DOV
I thought earlier this week that DOV triggered the stop at $29.50, but it didn't get there. Busy week and not much attention spent I think. Triggered the long setup number 2 with a scale in at $30. The target was first $32.50, the price was as high as $30.32 so if it was a scale in for half then that's a scale out for half and still holding with a stop still at $29.50, Which I would now move to breakeven at $30. $32.50 for the breakout and $29.50 for the breakdown still remain the key levels.



Prosultra O&G ETF DIG
We are in DIG from Wednesday and it remains a hold despite the choppyness. Needs to remain above $25 in what I think will be a messy week next week.


Dryships DRYS
Both entry criteria were hit this week for DRYS which was a really great setup. The 50EMA bounce off the consolidation lows at $6 was a peach of an entry, and the breakout above $7.25 was also strong (half at each for profit calc). Has not hit the target at $9.50, and I am moving the stop to $8 here.
A pullback to $7.50 would be nice here, especially considering the amount of buyers in the past 2 days.

Adobe ADBE
The cheapness of my entry and risk reward strategies meant that I was 22 cents off catching a wonderful trade in ADBE this week. Abode didn't trigger, and closed the week at triple trendline resistance and on the end of a fully formed ascending (bear) wedge. Still a nice chart and would like a pullback to $25 still.


Energizer ENR
In at ENR at $58, don't like the action here so moved stop to $58.25 expecting a drop.

From the price level list:

• RIG has closed above $69 and my sentiment is bullish only if we can break the resistive trendline on the daily chart from Jan 6th-Friday.
• 36 cents too cheap on the $20 retest on IR which had highs just shy of $23.
• No pullback on EBAY which maintains it's consolidation range of $16-$17 and at the 200EMA on the daily.
• A breakout on EWU and we are long at $11.55, a retest of $11.50-.75 looks like a good long considering the amount of buyers on the breakout.

• MSFT on the $20 retest still holding with stops at $19.75 looking for $22. Strong forces at work as it's pinned between the 200 and 20EMAs on the daily with significant wicking off both.

• A stop out on SOHU as it dropped $2 for the stop and then closed the week at $8 higher.

Results for the week:


Statistically you have to be happy with this, 70% winners and total actual risk not much greater than 2 positions worth. However there are still a lot of holders, so depending on where DRYS opens up the profit could be much lower. Yet again there is some pedigree in the list from this week which boosted the laggards (IP and DRYS). Without those two trades then the profit would be at $350 or so, which is still good enough for me.

For next weeks watchlist I'm looking to focus on stocks at key psychological levels - $10 & $20. There have been several on the watchlists at these levels for the past few weeks, and generally speaking this are the best performers given the buying or selling at such round numbers.

I will also try to keep the full list to 8 for this week, as I feel that's the ideal number for a watchlist - I will have a strong preference for excellence in the setups next week lol as I think it could get choppy.

Watchlist most likely finished on Monday, didn't have time for it this weekend. It's Labour day anyway right?

Interesting day for a few reasons here today.

1. Choppy with 2 quick losers
2. Quick unexpected jump in one triggered SEC PDT regulations
3. Account flagged as PDT and banned for 90 days or until I have $25k
4. TOS support desk rescues me with an request to remove ban
5. Ban appears to be lifted from Tuesday
6. IP Target hit and then some
7. Battle at DRYS with S/R at the moment

Anyway trading is pretty hard at the moment, mostly external factors removing my focus. Keep missing watchlist entries because of college which is really frustrating me, especially since 3 out of the 4 days are just a waste of time in terms of intellectual stimulation. This is resulting in badly executed trades, which although are small are completely unnecessary.

XLY is still holding the channel superbly and if this breaks it it should represent a strong short. Market has sold off quite a lot from highs today, lots of stocks failing simple setups so I continue to believe this is the top of the bear market rally.


IP has defied the chop this week and has surpassed the initial watchlist target (opening gap above it) which is really good. Naturally I am delighted to have missed this trade, and I hope I can get some long term benefit from the course about "stuff I already know about, and by the way I'm missing the setups teacher" at college. Nice chart


DRYS trigger from the 50ema remains intact, and the clear trading range here in the short term is $6-$7.30. Has sold off hard in the last hour and closed the gap. Next entry areas are over $7.35 or a trade at $6 short or long depending on market at the time. For some reason I continually get JBLU mixed up with DRYS. Is it the price level and volatility of them both?

DOV really popped out of that descending wedge strongly this morning after testing the lows of the support area. It looks like an easy setup but the DOV trade has been hard this week given the variations in support levels in the range. Sell area at $32.25 triggered and it too is selling hard. Is this what is sounds like when DOV cries?


SOHU also sprung nicely out of a declining volume pullback on to the 200EMA. I don't like this setup however, given that it dropped so far before clear prior resistance before bouncing. I like something with a little more respect for historic price action - so I won't post the chart.

Going to listen to some Prince now that the song is stuck in my head.

IP working well, triggering second buy level on a breakout over $11 today.

EWU has broken out on low volume so far.

DOV stopped out and has had a nice jump afterwards, currently forming a descending wedge so looking bullish.

DRYS triggered entry off the 50EMA yesterday at $6.05 looking good at $6.57

DIG broken out too, need to see a close above $25 here.

Charts later.

Couple of watchlist alerts so far this week;

AAI - Complete chop and stopped at short term $6.75 after entry at $7.

DOV - Channel support area long at $30;


MSFT - Just triggered at $20

IP - Retested entry level at $20 currently long;

SOHU - Hit $51 entry and stopped out shortly after

And this chart on XLY is probably the best treding I've seen lately (30min);

It will be interesting to see what happens here should this make a lower high ($23) and fails to hold $22.

Update later:
Markets starting to look weaker now, watching this for a breakdown - lots of stocks testing prior support as resistance just now, wondering if this is just a sell-off or the end of the bear market rally.

Fairly small watchlist this week with a couple of different setups. Haven't really had the time to go as deep as I normally do looking at charts, and given that this week I'll be in college 4 days it kinds of limits my trade management ability so I'm looking for some no-brainers for this week.

Was going to finish my hedging and relative strength reports this weekend but time has been tight. Look for these next week.

AirTrain Holdings AAI
Tight consolidation period at the high of an ascending wedge led to a pattern breakout - on huge volume. This has climbed $2 in the past few days and is seeing a low volume pullback at the moment.

There is a good amount of horizontal support firstly at $7 and the consolidation highs and gap price at $5.75. There is also significant EMA support with all lines crossed over and in correct order. AAI closed the week just rejecting the 200EMA on the weekly chart, which leads me to think that there could be a continued low volume sell off early next week.

I am bullish here until the consolidation range highs are breached.

Long
1. Short term or 1/2 position at $7.00 (stops at $5.70 if scaling, $6.75 if short term.
2. 1/2 or whole position at favoured level of $5.75 although I'm not convinced we will get there. Stops at $5.40
3. A breakout of the short term double top at $7.60 with stops at $7.55
4. Favourable supportive action on the 15min chart when AAI is at the 20 or 50EMAs on the daily.

I am looking for $9.50 here.

Short
1. Short term trade is AAI breaks $6.95 down to either $6.25 or $5.75 although I would not personally trade this.

International Paper IP
Great short term chart here in IP and I am bullish given the amount of clear support. Multiple short term channel breaks and bull flagging into the measured move areas from different bullish continuation patterns.

Good volume on the breakouts and good positive divergence in the MACD. $12.50 and $15 the next two overheads that I can see.

Long
1. A pullback to $10 or the 50EMA on the 30min represents a great risk reward trade. Stops at $9.85 with a target at $11.95
2. Breakout to new highs over $11

Short
Note looking to short IP but there will be an opportunity should it first fail $10 and look bearish past $9 too.

Juniper Networks JNPR
Explosive moves from JNPR lately. Tested $22.40 3 times without success and with negatively diverging histogram on the MACD. These runaway days usually result in good trading after they get a rest so I will be watching this over the next week looking for a few things.

JNPR also closed just off the 200EMA on the weekly chart and has some overhead resistive trendlines currently in the $24 region.

I am bullish here but there are shorting opportunities.

Long
1. Ultimate long is at $19.30 which represents a triple top resistance point before the breakout. A retest here is a nice setup with initial stops at $18.95 with targets first at $21, $23 and as high as $25 on measured moves.
2. Retest of the psychological $20 level could offer a good long considering there is still full supportive EMAs
3. Breakout to new highs above $22.50 with stops at $22.25 and a £24.75

Short
1. A break of $20.95 means that there is a good possibility of a falling window to close the gap price. Target of $19.50.
2. medium to long term shorting opportunity past $19.25 with the next support levels at $17.50, $16.50 and $15.


Dover Corp DOV
Simple consolidation trade where the range is in between the 200EMA and the20EMA on the daily chart. I feel whichever route this takes will lead to a nice breakout and a nice trade with an easy measured move. $32.50 is historically a strong support resistance area in DOV and this level is being tested regularly at the moment with rejection. Key levels here are $30 support and $32.50 resistance. Trade the breakout on a channel measured move for +$2.50.

On the weekly DOV bounced nicely off the 20 at $30 on Friday and the next overhead there is at $34 and $35. I feel bullish but it depends where the market goes next week.

Long:
1. Breakout of $32.50 with buyers and stops at $32.25 looking for $35.
2. Scale in long at channel support $30 if buyers are strong with stops at $29.5 and targets at $32.50 and $35

Short:
1. Breakdown of $29.90 with stops at $30.25 and target at $27.50
2. Scale in short at channel resistance at $32.50 with stops at $32.70 and target first at $30 with views to $27.50

I remain neutral here and will trade this depending on market strength of weakness. Good two-way trade.

Ultra Oil&Gas ETF DIG
DUG is choppy but DIG is a little easier. Key resistance level here is $25. I am looking to go long here if we break out on volume and also close above that level. Easy setup and doesn't really need a chart, but here's one anyway.


DryShips DRYS
Excellent tight consolidation range over the past week, moving averages look really good here too rising on support. Would like to see these cross over.

$6 and $7.25 represent consolidation lows and highs, I am bullish looking for a breakout over $7.25 or off the 20EMA on the daily. Stops depend on entry with support at $5.75 and then $7.20 support on the breakout with a view to targets at $9.50-$10.

Price levels in other stocks worth watching:

• If RIG can get above and close over $69 then I'm looking long.
• Traded IR nicely last week on the $20 break. A retest at this level represents a great long.
• EBAY on a pullback falling window to $15.25, expect pullback given at 200EMA on daily.
• EWU breakout at $11.50 and channel support at $10.80 for two-way trade.
• MOO over $31
• MSFT retesting $20 level
• SOHU retesting $51 as support
  

Will be watching a lot of ETFs this week to get a better idea on where each sector is going.

Update Monday morning GMT:
Will also be watching;

Adobe Systems ADBE
Featuring a lot of continuation patterns on the 60min. Has broken out over resistance at $25 and a pullback to this level will be a nice entry with stops initially at $24.50. This is forming an ascending wedge too, so if the pullback occurs before we hit the wedge resistance, that line will be our exit point.

Not looking to short here until under $23.

Energizer Holdings ENR
Nice rising channel into triple horizontal resistance and the 200EMA on the daily chart. Has made nice moves off the 20EMA recently, with the 7% gain on Friday coming on big volume. I am feeling bullish for a breakout here with a price over $58 but with this much overhead a short could also be on.

For a short I'm looking for some big volume and relative weakness to the market, and a failure of the 20EMA and the $52.50 level on the daily chart. A sustained sell off could see this drop to form an ascending triangle, meaning in time when the market begins to recover again, ENR could easily hit $90 based on the measured move.

Not so much an intra-day action but here's what I'm watching for the next few days. Will be busy with college and spring cleaning so doubtful I will get much time to trade.

KMB
Looking for horizontal support entry at atound $49 with crossing and supportive 20 and 50EMAs. Target in excess of $51. Second entry at $48 has already tested so will gauge that should $49 fail. Looser stops and smaller size than normal as the market seems indecisive at the moment. Daily chart trade.

ARE
Simple support failure at $31 on the cards for new 52 week lows, looking to short. Daily chart trade.

GT
Double top with negative divergence on the 60min, with a similar formation short term on the 15min. Would like to see $9.75 drop with short term target at $9 down to $7.50. Daily, 60min and 15min.

HMC
Gap flag forming, potential ascending triangle too. I am bullish here and I'm looking to enter long either on a break of $29 but more favourabley around $27.50ish when the 20EMA catches up with the buyers. Overhead at $30 and also a good candidate to short to close the gap. Tight range and quite small risk in all setups in HMC. Daily and 60min.

IR
Nice gap on huge volume yesterday, strong overhead at $20 with support at $17.50 and gap price. Looking to enter long on a break of $20. Daily chart.

ICE
Consolidation range pullback to the 200 and 20EMAs, not much decisive volume the past few days, also horizontal support in the $80-$81 region. Bullish until $80 fails on volume. Daily chart.

Update close of day;
Had a nice scalp trade in FAS earlier, easy easy setup fopr a quick $100. Went up immediately on entry and hit my target pretty quickly (the perfect trade right?) and even went quite a bit higher. I've won 7 of my last 8 trades now so need to maintain the consistency and keep the focus. IR looking very nice closing above $20 too.

Back from holiday, will be light on the market action except I'm watching Goodyear (GT) on a double top. Will be working on 2 articles in the next week or so, one focusing on the concept of relative strength and the other on the effect of hedging your trades using inverse ETFs.

Both of these are personal investigations to help me learn more about trading strategies to help my account in the long run so keep an eye out on those.

This is a shorter than usual post given that my vacation is nearing and end and I've got things I'd rather be doing than messing about with a one monitored computer getting screenshots all over the place.

This week saw the introduction of the 30% drawdown from max profit rule, which was triggered on the majority of the trades that gave a signal this week - and on all of the stocks still being held from last week.

I'm not sure exactly how I feel about the rule yet, it is very difficult to manage a trade when you have these extra variables and this sheet took a lot longer than normal to compile. It protected my downside from last week but gave a lot of chop this week - that could just have been the market being different of course.

Statistically there were 3 big winners - BHI DECK and BRCD. DECK was initially a stop out loss, due to bad stop placement. The re-entry signal was at $61 (original at $60) and this is still in the portfolio over the weekend. JBLU was the best trade on the watchlist as it behaved as expected on the numbers front but my execution of this trade left a lot to be desired.

BRCD saw some good trade management and this continues to be held with a stop loss equivalent to a profit of $360.









And here are the trade management blocks for JBLU BRCD and SFD as according to the watchlist. JBLU was a cent off .50 and anybody with any wisdom would have cashed at .45 or higher. This pic is for my calculations so apologies if it doesn't make any sense.

Watchlist is looking pretty stagnant with the exception of JBLU and MRVL. FOSL might get a rock and roll as I believe there was a 1/4 scale in trigger yesterday.

Was trading briefly last night and bought TNA at $22, sold out at $22.17 after a violent drawdown. Nice bounce off the 50EMA with a reversal candlestick. Sold purely because I wanted to go to bed (it was 1am here at that point) and the stock rallied to $23.50 so I was pretty sick when I saw that this morning.

Anyway I'll be watching CEDC tomorrow, nice rise and it's forming a continuation ascending triangle at the moment. I feel good about this stock and I'll be buying the breakout. The pullback will also be a great trade. This trade is a short term position with a target around $20.50. The breakout price for me is $19.05 with stops at $18.75 with notice to the 20 and 50EMAs on the 15min chart.


In other news the watchlist this week will be a pure what triggered and what didn't, as my vacation is drawing to a close and I've got a lot of college work to get on with too. This also means I probably won't manage a watchlist post on Sunday either. Looking forward to getting back home to more than one monitor and British Summer Time (5 hrs difference instead of 12).

Just want to cover 2 trades from the watchlist which I've traded so far this week. They are both excellent setups and really great trades, but my execution was shocking in retrospect and I need to uncover the reasons why. This should also give readers an insight into what I look for when stocks are approaching trigger levels.

Lots of triggers from the watchlist, and a few stops hit based on this weeks 30% drawdown rule. Nice bounce in the markets this afternoon, but the volume is unconvincing. Chuffed that GS had some decent earnings, we could see some buying tomorrow morning as a result.

I'm long MRVL at $10.08 - really wanted $10.02 but c'est la vie. Best entry today from the watchlist was HCP at $20.05 - was up to over $21.45 while I was still watching it - not sure on the closure. I believe there was a potential pants down trade in AMB which I'll cover later in the week.

BRCD, JBLU and FOSL also desperately close to entry points. 1/4 scale-in rule activated on a few of these today.

I'm jet lagged and working on 3hrs sleep so no charts today.

On holiday in a different country with a different operating system so spent some time working on a new risk calulator because I didn't take my existing one with me. I prefer this one now and will incorporate it into my trade tracker spreadsheet. Also helps for scaling in and out.

Leave a message/email if you want a copy.

This took a long, long time to compile this week so let's do this..

Big post this week. Click the tickers to get the charts from last week that continue

Stocks on a continuation from last weeks post at here

AMB
Entry long at $18 with stops at $17.75. Next support level for me is $16.50, then $14.85-$15. My bias is long. Longer term a failure of $14.85 represents a good short entry with an initial target of $12 with potential for $11.

BHI
Looking for BHI to break above $31 and retest that as support for a long entry with stops at $31.80. Target range is $32.50-$34. Major overhead at $34.50 wth next support level at $30 then $28. Will trade the prices and remain neutral here.

EWZ
Entry price at $43.35 with stops at $42.75 meaning this is one for a smaller position size than normal. A failure of $43 sees next support at $41. A failure of $41 would make me very bearish with targets at $38 and $36.

HCP
Looking for HCP to retest the support line around $20 for a long with about a $0.30 stop. Measured move from this breakout is $23.25. Has a support trendline and the 200EMA on the 30 min too. Would look to take another long at the next key level at $16.50, a failure of this and I'm looking at $15 to cover.

MRVL
Approaching overhead now, has nice support horizontally and with the 200EMA on the daily. Have moved the stop to $10.05 and will consider scaling in more here. Really not looking to short this one at the moment.

AAPL
Remains short from last week at $120 with stops at $121 and target at $115. Will move a break-even stop at $119 and then trail a $1 stop from there as this could pop.

JCP
Would really like to scale in long on a retest of $22.50 as support. Big gap on nice volume and at the 200EMA means this is a choppy trade until then for me. Use a $0.75 stop here after being caught out on last weeks long. Looking for $27.50.

XLK
Stop moved to break-even at $16.25 for half with remainder at $15.90 with a target at the 200EMA and overhead resistance. Would like to add to the position at $16 if the action looks bullish.

GYMB
Descriptive signal triggered at close on Thursday, full analysis covered this week so scroll down.

New additions:

Canadian Solar CSIQ
Channel play in what is essentially a bear flag setup in the long term. For the swing setup the key level is $7.50. We have bull flagged for the past few days up at resistance with some good if not spectacular buying pressure. Oversold on the daily indicators here.

Looking closer on the 60 minute there is some good support in the $6-$6.25 region, however we are looking at forming a descending triangle here is this pennant/flag doesn't quite work out. The good thing is that this pullback has been on minimal and declining volume.

Due to the nature of this setup, a trader will have to be very quick at making up their mind whether to go short or long. The short term tradable range is $1.25 in a stock under $10 which is quite substantial.

I have used the daily chart instead of the 60 day as it shows the setup a little more clearly.

Long;
$6.50 with stops at $6.20 with an initial target of $10-$11. At $7 I would sell 1/4 and move the remainder of the position to break-even.

A breakout of $7.50 provided the volume looks good. Stops at $7.30 with initial target at $9.50. I would look to manage this trade in a manner that really prevents drawdown, potentially selling 1/4 at $8, $8.5 and then $9 with a remainder stop trailed by $0.50.

In the real longer term, an entry at $3 is sound but unlikely. The measured move from the channel and double bottom is at $11 (where the 200EMA is on the daily)

Short;
Breakdown of $6.50 with target of $5. Scale out 1/4 at $5.50 and move the stop to $6.00 and see out the rest of the trade as per this weeks 30% 'drawdown from high' rule.

The long setup here represents the best risk reward ratio, in your favour by about 12:1

Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK
Playing this as a 123 setup with a support price of $60. I am looking for this to get to about $65 before retracement based on the last gap fill channel move at $55. There is scope here for $70 but I would really like this to pullback first.

This is a relatively straight forward setup, and again I include the daily instead of the 60 day. Good divergence shown here.

Long;
$60 with stop at $59.75. Initial target at $68 with a view for $70 (1/2 at $68 - $0.50 trailed stop).

Short;
I am not looking at a short in DECK until the price has dropped below $50.

Fossil Inc FOSL
Very busy chart but bear with me. The dashed blue lines act both as support and resistance that aren't horizontal. I see these every now and again but few work as well as they are here. I am bullish here on FOSL so use the lower line in the trade. Daily chart first, also included the 60min for your pleasure.

This has had a great move lately, however the volume has not been superb. Nice breakout from $17.50 but with the 200EMA right above it on the daily, I have to expect a pullback to re-test the support range. The short term triangle is a pennant in the medium term. Continuation on the horizon.

Short term ascending triangle measured move is $19.50 and that is my initial target. Second target is the measured channel move at $20.50. I have two concerns here first is the lack of volume in the breakout, second is the formation of a bear flag with negative divergence on the macd. Those factors are what makes this a great two way setup. I expect this to pullback to $17.50 which provides the first entry.

Long;
At $17.50 with stops at $17.20 with initial target at $19.50 (1/2 here) to $20.50 for remainder. Stop is trailed $0.50 here with the 30% max profit drawdown stop applying here as with the rest of the watchlist.

Short;
I am hesitant to enter short given the amount of bullish continuation signals here. I would really only look to short at $15.50 to $14. Giving up $14 more or less signals a strong reversal with targets at $11.50.

I am short term bearish medium term bullish.

Jetblue Airways JBLU
I think there could be a few watching this one next week. JBLU really in no mans land at the moment, and I feel this could be a great trade both ways this week.

Strong overhead at $4.50 is now support. The trend is definitely up after a micro head and shoulders, and there is also an ascending triangle at work. Full 200EMA support on the 60 day too.

However, there is some strong resistance coming up. Notably the 200EMA on the daily, horizontal at $5.25 and a resistive trendine also at $5.25 at the moment. The amount of overhead increases at $6.25.

I am anticipating a slight drift upwards before a pullback to $4.50. The ascending triangle measured move is at $6, the channel measured move is $5.50. I feel that the pullback to $4.50 is backed up with negative divergence in both indicators, and the price is extended from the moving averages.

Long;
Long at $4.50 with stops at $4.25 with initial targets at $5.25-50, and then $6.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting this at $4.10 downwards to $3.50 with stops at $4.25

This trade will be re-evaluated should JBLU close above the following levels; $5.25, $6.25.

The Gymboree Corp GYMB
I am just gagging to short this. Well, I already have as the alert was triggered right at the close on Thursday. 25% jump, closed right at the resistance level which goes back a few years. Also at the 200EMA on the daily. Yes there is huge volume on that move, but check the volume on the previous drop. People re-adjusting their portfolio and getting carried away maybe? Short covering gone mad? It's up 100% in the past month. This smells like war food Sunday - overcooked.

Long;
The only long here is a retest of $27.50 after GYMB has been as high as $30, with a target of $35. I am not at all interested in a long this week.

Short;
Right now or from $27.30-60. Stop at $28 - this is slightly lax I expect some buyer spill-over from last week into Monday. Initial target at $24 for 1/2 with the remainder at a falling window gap close at $22.50.

Westamerica Bancorporation WABC
Somebody needs to explain the WABC business model to me because I straight up don't understand the chart. If you exclude the crazy price action from September 19th last year, WABC is only down 23% from last years highs.

If you compare that to the other regional banks of a similar market cap you can see good relative strength; CYN -44% BOH-46% ZION -75% GBCI -60%. Looks like a good deal should the rest of the market re-test the bottoms of the year. Generally all this sector does is consolidate, albeit in a large range.

We've broken out from the overhead at $49 off an ascending triangle that has a measured move of $55.50. This chart looks very boring, but that's ok, trading isn't always an adrenalin rush. The only thing I'm looking at is $49, and whether or not this will pullback to there. Watch out for $55.50 before the pullback as that could provide a micro-short.

Long;
Retest of $49.25 with stops at $48.65 (small size because of exposure). With targets partially at $54 (1/4) with stop moved to $52.50 and trailed a buck up to $55.50 - at that point there will be potential for $60 on a measured move so I'll keep my analysis updated for that.

Short;
A quick trader will spot the rally is ending by checking histogram divergence and bearish candlestick formations. I predict this could be at about $54 but will let you know. A scalpers trade.

Realistically not looking to short WABC medium-long term until $44 is a goner.

Brocade Communications BRCD
Busy chart. V bottom reversal, bear flag, pennant and nice breakout above resistance at $4. Closed above and successfully retested the 200EMA as support with a nice looking doji in good volume. Measured move from channel is $5 with longer term measured move at $6 (also a resistance point).

More of a longer term trade, I would be looking to enter long here at two levels, and due to that it required good risk management to cope with the exposure. The only overhead that I spy with my little eye is a gap fill at about $5.20. Apart from that we are rosy until long term overhead at $6.

I like the bullishness of this chart, and I'm keen to enter on a pullback.

Long;
Remember risk management is vital in this trade. 1/4 at $4.50 with a view to get more at $4.25 and $4, really depends on the type of trader you are. Realistically I would like to see $5 before we pullback and ideally I am looking to enter at the 200EMA or $4.25 with stops at $3.80. Partial target at $5, seen out to $6 with very aggressive management after $4.95. This setup represents the absolute minimum risk reward setup I like to trade at 3:1

Short;
I would look to short this at $6 with a stop at $6.25, working with a 4:1 ratio with targets first at $5, and then around $4.50.

A breakdown of $4 will offer a scalper a $0.50 trade, but I would not personally trade this given my account rules.

Smithfield Foods SFD
A stock that looks like it follows its measured moves pretty well. A strange key level in $11.30 here, but one that was breached on Thursday either way. Excellent double bottom - check the positive divergence on the macd and increased buying pressure. Long term measured move from that is $25, but I'm focusing on a smaller time scale this week.

In my mind the support levels are $11.30, $10.50 and $10 and I remain bullish until $10 is given up on volume. The volume has been thin lately, so we need a boost early next week or we'll pull back to these levels - fine enough if we want to go long. An entry without this level of pullback could be difficult.

Short term overhead at $12.50 and $13 with longer term resistance range at $15-$17.50. The 200EMA and resistive trendline are in the vicinity, which add weight to the pullback claim.

Long;
Pullback to $11.30 as a water tester with 1/4, however I am more likely to advise $10.50 as the entry point with stops at $9.85. Target initial at $12.50, with a view to either closing or tightening stops at $13 or the 200EMA.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting SFD at $12.50 with a $0.25 ONLY IF the rise if on low volume and the 200EMA is right there. I would look for bearish candlestick action too, and if possible, more negative divergence on the macd histogram.

Yingli Green Energy YGE
I can only assume these guys are Chinese with a name like that, and it's good to spread the exposure. I quite like this chart, but nearly didn't include it this week.

We are testing $7.50 for the 4th time as resistance after 2 higher lows in what most would assume is an ascending triangle. I don't like the ascension here and I'm viewing this more as a channel trade or a 123. Strong resistive trendline and 200EMA await overhead, apart from that there is minimal horizontal until $12.50. Volume has been strong on the latest rally

I will be watching the candlesticks here as we look extended, and we are right between strong overhead and support, meaning any potential move could be strong. Ideally I would like to see a move to the 200EMA and then a pullback to $7.50.

Long;
At a retest of $7.50 after a breakout providing the chart shows strength (pullback on lower volume) for an entry long with stops at $7.20. Initial target at $9.50. Approach this entry with caution, as I would like the price to test the 200EMA before the pullback. The other important factor here is the gap at $9.12-36.

Second entry if you miss that, and one that represents a more favourable risk reward ratio is an entry off short term support at $6.25 with stops at $6.13

Short;
I would be comfortable with a short at $12 downwards with a stop at $12.25.

Short two for me is a breakdown of $6 with a target at $4.75 and a $0.25 stop.


Descriptive trades (no chart needed, check the dailies or 60d 60m):

Ak Steel AKS- short at $10, tight stop, psychological number, enter long on retest as support if breakout
Alpha Natural Resources ANR - trade channel at $15-$21.50 with short term support at $17
Temple-Inland TIN - Long at $6.25 as a re-test after a breakout, stop at $5.95. Short below $4.75

Stocks that didn't make the final cut this week: EWH JNY FO