[CRYSTAL BALLING APRIL 27TH-MAY 1ST]
Fairly small watchlist this week with a couple of different setups. Haven't really had the time to go as deep as I normally do looking at charts, and given that this week I'll be in college 4 days it kinds of limits my trade management ability so I'm looking for some no-brainers for this week.
Was going to finish my hedging and relative strength reports this weekend but time has been tight. Look for these next week.
AirTrain Holdings AAI
Tight consolidation period at the high of an ascending wedge led to a pattern breakout - on huge volume. This has climbed $2 in the past few days and is seeing a low volume pullback at the moment.
There is a good amount of horizontal support firstly at $7 and the consolidation highs and gap price at $5.75. There is also significant EMA support with all lines crossed over and in correct order. AAI closed the week just rejecting the 200EMA on the weekly chart, which leads me to think that there could be a continued low volume sell off early next week.
I am bullish here until the consolidation range highs are breached.
Long
1. Short term or 1/2 position at $7.00 (stops at $5.70 if scaling, $6.75 if short term.
2. 1/2 or whole position at favoured level of $5.75 although I'm not convinced we will get there. Stops at $5.40
3. A breakout of the short term double top at $7.60 with stops at $7.55
4. Favourable supportive action on the 15min chart when AAI is at the 20 or 50EMAs on the daily.
I am looking for $9.50 here.
Short
1. Short term trade is AAI breaks $6.95 down to either $6.25 or $5.75 although I would not personally trade this.
International Paper IP
Great short term chart here in IP and I am bullish given the amount of clear support. Multiple short term channel breaks and bull flagging into the measured move areas from different bullish continuation patterns.
Good volume on the breakouts and good positive divergence in the MACD. $12.50 and $15 the next two overheads that I can see.
Long
1. A pullback to $10 or the 50EMA on the 30min represents a great risk reward trade. Stops at $9.85 with a target at $11.95
2. Breakout to new highs over $11
Short
Note looking to short IP but there will be an opportunity should it first fail $10 and look bearish past $9 too.
Juniper Networks JNPR
Explosive moves from JNPR lately. Tested $22.40 3 times without success and with negatively diverging histogram on the MACD. These runaway days usually result in good trading after they get a rest so I will be watching this over the next week looking for a few things.
JNPR also closed just off the 200EMA on the weekly chart and has some overhead resistive trendlines currently in the $24 region.
I am bullish here but there are shorting opportunities.
Long
1. Ultimate long is at $19.30 which represents a triple top resistance point before the breakout. A retest here is a nice setup with initial stops at $18.95 with targets first at $21, $23 and as high as $25 on measured moves.
2. Retest of the psychological $20 level could offer a good long considering there is still full supportive EMAs
3. Breakout to new highs above $22.50 with stops at $22.25 and a £24.75
Short
1. A break of $20.95 means that there is a good possibility of a falling window to close the gap price. Target of $19.50.
2. medium to long term shorting opportunity past $19.25 with the next support levels at $17.50, $16.50 and $15.
Dover Corp DOV
Simple consolidation trade where the range is in between the 200EMA and the20EMA on the daily chart. I feel whichever route this takes will lead to a nice breakout and a nice trade with an easy measured move. $32.50 is historically a strong support resistance area in DOV and this level is being tested regularly at the moment with rejection. Key levels here are $30 support and $32.50 resistance. Trade the breakout on a channel measured move for +$2.50.
On the weekly DOV bounced nicely off the 20 at $30 on Friday and the next overhead there is at $34 and $35. I feel bullish but it depends where the market goes next week.
Long:
1. Breakout of $32.50 with buyers and stops at $32.25 looking for $35.
2. Scale in long at channel support $30 if buyers are strong with stops at $29.5 and targets at $32.50 and $35
Short:
1. Breakdown of $29.90 with stops at $30.25 and target at $27.50
2. Scale in short at channel resistance at $32.50 with stops at $32.70 and target first at $30 with views to $27.50
I remain neutral here and will trade this depending on market strength of weakness. Good two-way trade.
Ultra Oil&Gas ETF DIG
DUG is choppy but DIG is a little easier. Key resistance level here is $25. I am looking to go long here if we break out on volume and also close above that level. Easy setup and doesn't really need a chart, but here's one anyway.
DryShips DRYS
Excellent tight consolidation range over the past week, moving averages look really good here too rising on support. Would like to see these cross over.
$6 and $7.25 represent consolidation lows and highs, I am bullish looking for a breakout over $7.25 or off the 20EMA on the daily. Stops depend on entry with support at $5.75 and then $7.20 support on the breakout with a view to targets at $9.50-$10.
Price levels in other stocks worth watching:
Update Monday morning GMT:
Will also be watching;
Adobe Systems ADBE
Featuring a lot of continuation patterns on the 60min. Has broken out over resistance at $25 and a pullback to this level will be a nice entry with stops initially at $24.50. This is forming an ascending wedge too, so if the pullback occurs before we hit the wedge resistance, that line will be our exit point.
Not looking to short here until under $23.
Energizer Holdings ENR
Nice rising channel into triple horizontal resistance and the 200EMA on the daily chart. Has made nice moves off the 20EMA recently, with the 7% gain on Friday coming on big volume. I am feeling bullish for a breakout here with a price over $58 but with this much overhead a short could also be on.
For a short I'm looking for some big volume and relative weakness to the market, and a failure of the 20EMA and the $52.50 level on the daily chart. A sustained sell off could see this drop to form an ascending triangle, meaning in time when the market begins to recover again, ENR could easily hit $90 based on the measured move.
Was going to finish my hedging and relative strength reports this weekend but time has been tight. Look for these next week.
AirTrain Holdings AAI
Tight consolidation period at the high of an ascending wedge led to a pattern breakout - on huge volume. This has climbed $2 in the past few days and is seeing a low volume pullback at the moment.
There is a good amount of horizontal support firstly at $7 and the consolidation highs and gap price at $5.75. There is also significant EMA support with all lines crossed over and in correct order. AAI closed the week just rejecting the 200EMA on the weekly chart, which leads me to think that there could be a continued low volume sell off early next week.I am bullish here until the consolidation range highs are breached.
Long
1. Short term or 1/2 position at $7.00 (stops at $5.70 if scaling, $6.75 if short term.
2. 1/2 or whole position at favoured level of $5.75 although I'm not convinced we will get there. Stops at $5.40
3. A breakout of the short term double top at $7.60 with stops at $7.55
4. Favourable supportive action on the 15min chart when AAI is at the 20 or 50EMAs on the daily.
I am looking for $9.50 here.
Short
1. Short term trade is AAI breaks $6.95 down to either $6.25 or $5.75 although I would not personally trade this.
International Paper IP
Great short term chart here in IP and I am bullish given the amount of clear support. Multiple short term channel breaks and bull flagging into the measured move areas from different bullish continuation patterns.
Good volume on the breakouts and good positive divergence in the MACD. $12.50 and $15 the next two overheads that I can see.Long
1. A pullback to $10 or the 50EMA on the 30min represents a great risk reward trade. Stops at $9.85 with a target at $11.95
2. Breakout to new highs over $11
Short
Note looking to short IP but there will be an opportunity should it first fail $10 and look bearish past $9 too.
Juniper Networks JNPR
Explosive moves from JNPR lately. Tested $22.40 3 times without success and with negatively diverging histogram on the MACD. These runaway days usually result in good trading after they get a rest so I will be watching this over the next week looking for a few things.
JNPR also closed just off the 200EMA on the weekly chart and has some overhead resistive trendlines currently in the $24 region.I am bullish here but there are shorting opportunities.
Long
1. Ultimate long is at $19.30 which represents a triple top resistance point before the breakout. A retest here is a nice setup with initial stops at $18.95 with targets first at $21, $23 and as high as $25 on measured moves.
2. Retest of the psychological $20 level could offer a good long considering there is still full supportive EMAs
3. Breakout to new highs above $22.50 with stops at $22.25 and a £24.75
Short
1. A break of $20.95 means that there is a good possibility of a falling window to close the gap price. Target of $19.50.
2. medium to long term shorting opportunity past $19.25 with the next support levels at $17.50, $16.50 and $15.
Dover Corp DOV
Simple consolidation trade where the range is in between the 200EMA and the20EMA on the daily chart. I feel whichever route this takes will lead to a nice breakout and a nice trade with an easy measured move. $32.50 is historically a strong support resistance area in DOV and this level is being tested regularly at the moment with rejection. Key levels here are $30 support and $32.50 resistance. Trade the breakout on a channel measured move for +$2.50.
On the weekly DOV bounced nicely off the 20 at $30 on Friday and the next overhead there is at $34 and $35. I feel bullish but it depends where the market goes next week.Long:
1. Breakout of $32.50 with buyers and stops at $32.25 looking for $35.
2. Scale in long at channel support $30 if buyers are strong with stops at $29.5 and targets at $32.50 and $35
Short:
1. Breakdown of $29.90 with stops at $30.25 and target at $27.50
2. Scale in short at channel resistance at $32.50 with stops at $32.70 and target first at $30 with views to $27.50
I remain neutral here and will trade this depending on market strength of weakness. Good two-way trade.
Ultra Oil&Gas ETF DIG
DUG is choppy but DIG is a little easier. Key resistance level here is $25. I am looking to go long here if we break out on volume and also close above that level. Easy setup and doesn't really need a chart, but here's one anyway.
DryShips DRYS
Excellent tight consolidation range over the past week, moving averages look really good here too rising on support. Would like to see these cross over.
$6 and $7.25 represent consolidation lows and highs, I am bullish looking for a breakout over $7.25 or off the 20EMA on the daily. Stops depend on entry with support at $5.75 and then $7.20 support on the breakout with a view to targets at $9.50-$10.Price levels in other stocks worth watching:
- If RIG can get above and close over $69 then I'm looking long.
- Traded IR nicely last week on the $20 break. A retest at this level represents a great long.
- EBAY on a pullback falling window to $15.25, expect pullback given at 200EMA on daily.
- EWU breakout at $11.50 and channel support at $10.80 for two-way trade.
- MOO over $31
- MSFT retesting $20 level
- SOHU retesting $51 as support
Update Monday morning GMT:
Will also be watching;
Adobe Systems ADBE
Featuring a lot of continuation patterns on the 60min. Has broken out over resistance at $25 and a pullback to this level will be a nice entry with stops initially at $24.50. This is forming an ascending wedge too, so if the pullback occurs before we hit the wedge resistance, that line will be our exit point.
Not looking to short here until under $23.Energizer Holdings ENR
Nice rising channel into triple horizontal resistance and the 200EMA on the daily chart. Has made nice moves off the 20EMA recently, with the 7% gain on Friday coming on big volume. I am feeling bullish for a breakout here with a price over $58 but with this much overhead a short could also be on.
For a short I'm looking for some big volume and relative weakness to the market, and a failure of the 20EMA and the $52.50 level on the daily chart. A sustained sell off could see this drop to form an ascending triangle, meaning in time when the market begins to recover again, ENR could easily hit $90 based on the measured move.
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