The Student Loan Ranger

Good weeks trading this week, pleased with how my setups went. From a numbers point of view, I had an 80% success rate in my trades and earned about 35% more than I would have earned doing 5 9-5 shifts in a supermarket/bar/building site so good in the hood from there.

I am started to get a lot more disciplined in my approach to trading, treating it more as a business application than just something for fun. It is part of my personality to be effective at anything so long as I have a structure and a routine. If I have specific targets and setups, and treat it like I would a job, then I will be a lot more successful than the guy who would have just moseyed along a few months ago while playing champ manager or pro ev at the same time. Although I still think it is equally important to have fun trading and to enjoy the motions.

My discipline is encouraging, and the only trade I lost on was DES - not on my watchlist and a misjudgement of market sentiment. All my other trades were from the watchlist - holding EME from last week, 2 trades in BAY and one in TLPR - and those were all good trades.

PS I took profits in TLPR today at 471 for 9.7% profit.

I've learned the following this week - all very valuable lessons imho.

1. Only trade your watchlist
2. Only trade off your trigger points (or if you know how a stock like SOLA works)
   
3. Set realistic profit targets and take the money
   
4. Don't place a trailing stop 2 hours after the market opens
5. Non-supportive lows will always go lower, non resistant highs will always go higher - then drop to support - and then go again.
   
6. Buy for a reason, sell for a reason
7. Let winners run, don't let losers start the race
   

From this week I am introducing a few new features to my round-ups, basically so I can track my trade success rate, watchlist success rate, and weekly monetary gains if for example £3k were invested in each trade. I still maintain you learn more from your mistakes from your gains, but it is still important to focus on what you do right.

Stocks analysis from this weeks Crystal Balling

Bellway (BWY)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "... but I feel this will make a move on Tuesday or Monday. Short term price target of 720. Go short on a bear break of 640".
• Watch for moves off double bottom at 645.
• Watch for wedge breakout north and south.

What happened:

• Bear break of 640 was signal to short - dropped quickly to 620
• Currently at 4.5 year lows
• Profits of 3.4% for shorters before brokerage etc
• Successful trade based on original entry points

Not a very interesting chart so won't include. BWY is not looking for support at 620. Any break below 620 indicates a new 4.5 year low hence an indicator to short the stock.

Sci Entertainment Group (SEG)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "Entry price around 53.5 depending on L2 activities... conservative price target of 60 to 65"
• Multiple bottom support
• Look for descending wedge breakout for entries

What happened:

• Yawn time in SEG. We did not see the entry point at 53.5 and it has stayed in Mondays range all week
• Heavy institutional buying

What a boring week for SEG! A wedge breakout should happen next week, but I don't think I will be trading this stock. 53.5 remains the entry point for SEG. SEG goes down as neutral for this weeks success rate.

VT Group (VTG)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "Entry points for this stock this week... 631-63... On a hit here I think we will see a bounce... looking for negative divergence and a slight move on the DMI and stochastics to alert me for an entry point in VTG"
• Strong ascending wedge
• Setting up stochastically to coincide with support line

What happened:

• Wicked out to 624, body held at 632 on Thursday.
• I watched the bounce coming back at around 627 live, it was strong and signalled an entry point
• Closed at 654 on Friday after highs at 660
• Looking excellent for next week, and I will look to enter on retracement
• Entry at average prediction price of 632 currently up 3.4% - if I owned I would continue to hold
• Successful trade based on entry points and signals

Was well pleased with VTG as I watched the bounce happen. I did not expect the wicking, and I will watch for that as it could mislead you into taking a wrong position (short in this case). The close of the body is very important in channels and wedges.

Like I say, VTG looks extremely strong leading into next week and represents one of the best trades around at the moment for gains by next Friday. I will keep this on Crystal Balling. This is the best setup I've seen this week... probably.

Confirmation of support strength and following rally

This what I would have waited for on entry if my cash wasn't in TLPR (the 15 minute chart)


Atkins (ATK)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "I believe will turn bullish shortly... channeling between 1222 and 946... very short price target of 1100 with the potential to run to 1222"
• Short the stock on a bear break at 945
• In short term channel but overall wedge
• Watch for confirmation of support line, and break of short term resistance at 1020ish

What happened

• Bounce confirmed
• Resistance broken and used as support
• closed at 1033 on Friday with weekly high at 1051 - Friday was an inside day
  
• Bit of a slow week, looks very boring
• I have reduced target to 1070
• Buying at average on Tuesday and selling on Thursday would have netted between 1.3 and 1.6% - not worth it in my opinion but technically still a "successful trade"
  
• Off the watchlist

I thought ATK might move faster. I don't like the candle on Friday. It could either be a 180 for bulls on Monday, or an inside day for a small drop then a move. Don't trade the inside wedge in ATK, the returns aren't enough for the risk. Wait for a wedge breakout either side for entry.

Dexion ABS (DAB)

Short and sweet - this is an early prediction of a WM pattern. So far the prediction is spot on. If you had read my pattern spotting post about this pattern, you could have traded the inside M at high risk for minimal profit but it's not worth it.


Let's see what happens next week. Since this has followed my WM prediction I should add it to the successful list, but it's not exactly a trade, so like ATK it's a weak one. I have a funny feeling we will see a rise above the M resistance next week.

Tullet Prebon (TLPR)

I feel I covered this enough during the week so shouldn't need to explain. I will just include a nice looking chart for kudos. Successful trade (11%)

Looks like there is still some wind in the sails, but I hit my adjusted profit target (between 468-480) earlier than I thought and sold into strength. Keep the discipline!

British American Tobacco (BATS)

Prediction and chart alerts:

• "Entry at the support line from the trend with a target of 2025"
• Ascending wedge
• Indicators maturing but not quite ready at time of writing

What happened:

• We did not see the entry point off the wedge
• Indicators still lacking confirmation
• Small trading range the past week
• Would not have entered a trade, therefore neutral

Yawn week for BATS. Will continue to monitor wedge, look at the charts for entry points.

ARM Holdings (ARM)

Prediction and chart alerts

• "Basically I'm looking for support at the 100 day EMA as all indicators look set for a drop... I'm bearish with 99p representing a key value"
• Trying to break downward trend
• Potential inverse head and shoulders forming

What happened

• ARM has wicked 99p twice this week, did not bounce and did not drop
• Massive relative volume on Friday
• Divergence on MACD
• Looking set to do something.. just not sure which
• No entry signals short or long so neutral

Renovo (RNVO)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "ultra-risk manoeuvres on RNVO... it will either plummet or see spectacular Rocky comeback... look bullish leading into the next few days, but watch close... not be surprised to see this stock on the high gainers"
• Look for fast line EMA break for entry

What happened

• RNVO was bullish into the next few days (Tue/Wed)
• Climbed up to 12% on Friday and hit the top movers list lol
• Still high risk
• Did not break daily fast line EMA so no entry
• Support at lows not tested

Would have loved to enter RNVO, but like I said the risk was too high - it was just one to watch. Entry at any point this week would see you even on Tuesdays opening, so a neutral trade on two fronts.

British Airways (BAY)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "Double bottom as strong reversal indicator but might be weaker DB than normal... stochastically a bull day on Tuesday"
• Watch both channel resistance lines for breakout

What happened:

• Bullish days on Tue, Wed and Fri
• Traded intra day twice both successful
• Broke out of both channels - now awaiting confirmation
• Successful trade
• Gains anyway from 2-8% (will use 5% for blog calculation)

BAY was good to trade this week. Oil affects the prices quite a lot. News about them ordering new planes is what boosted the price initially. Heavily day traded and tends to wane off at the end of the day. BAY is knocking on the door of the trend resistance and looks good to break, but can't be sure with these blue chips at the moment lol.

Anglo Pacific (APF)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "Straight forward flag play, check the chart" - kept it brief then
• Flag breakout play

What happened:

• APF has formed a strong ascending wedge in about this flag
• Volume slipping out of it
• Maintain 215.5 confirmed price entry
• Neutral trade for blog, as no entry signal given

Looks like it will make it's move out the wedge next week instead for an entry point. Kept an eye on it, and it tried, but 215.5 is very stubborn for APF

The bottom line

Trading success rate this week:







Watchlist success rate this week (on entries):







Overall watchlist return (Green = good, Red = bad, Grey = neutral):







Net return on watchlist this week (£3k trades at trigger entry and current or taken profits, less 15% for mistiming and brokerage etc):







You would have probably required £9000 overall exposure to generate this amount. It could be greater or higher depending on what you traded and on what days. This is just how I'm working it out.

Good week for entries. This is probably the best way to track my progress as a trader.