[CRYSTAL BALLING - MAY 27TH -30TH]
A fairly hefty and decent looking watchlist coming this week. There's a good mix of signals, patterns and indicators amongst the candidates this week. I will continue to monitor some other stocks from previous round-ups or crystal balling articles.
Bellway (BWY)
Simple short term double bottom play here on BWY. The overall trend is down, but the support established in 2004 held the first time. This is a slightly higher risk play, but I feel this will make a move on Tuesday or Monday. Short term price target of 720. Go short on a bear break of 640.
Bellway stock chart;
Sci Entertainment Group (SEG)
For some reason the graph for SEG keeps mucking up so can't include. An OK strength expansion breakout on SEG is combined within an even bigger longer term consolidation range following huge drops in price over the past 8 months or so.
The stochastics is excellent, the ADX is strong, but what caught my eye was the volume behind the moves at the close of the week. I would put a conservative price target of 60 to 65. Not a great deal higher, but if caught at the right entry point could provide a decent quick return.
SEG has had its fair share of bullish engulfing since the drop, but this volume is the highest since that happened. There has been some selling pressure over the past few months as gaps have been filled and the gains did not surpass them. Potentially people getting out after anticipating better moves. Entry price around 53.5 depending on L2 activities.
VT Group (VTG)
Good looking chart here priming itself for a good entry point. VT group has enjoyed the past 5 years as the stock has pretty much been in an uptrend since 2003. A very strong ascending wedge has formed since January.
With stochastics in the oversold region but still bearish, the directional movement looking bearish and some recent heavy selling pressure - I believe this stock should hit the wedge support line and make a move from there. Entry points for this stock this week in my opinion are a bounce of the line, which represets anywhere between 631 on Tuesday, to 634 on Friday.
On a hit here I think we will see a bounce, based at least on the stochastics and basic technical analysis of trends and wedges. The 100 day EMA has held well, and has only been broken just as the SP hits the support. A similar move happened on Thursday and Friday. I will be looking for negative divergence and a slight move on the DMI and stochastics to alert me for an entry point in VTG.
VT Group stock chart;
I put a medium to long term price target of 811p on VTG, with a short term target of 695p if/when the stock bounces of the support line as shown. Let some run if the 700p area is broken on strength. Go short on a breakdown of the support.
Atkins (ATK)
Atkins is at an interesting juncture at present which I believe will turn bullish shortly. Like VTG the overall trend is up on the long term, but there has been some channeling between 1222 and 946 over the past 16 months. During this time the SP has not dropped out of the trend line, nor has it broken through overhead resistance at 1222.
This scenario sounds like a wedge but I'm not quite viewing it like that. The indicators aren't the best, except for stochastic - which looks good - and more importantly, ties in well with the support line. ATK has set up two short term resistance levels at current price and 1127.
I am bullish in ATK with the very short price target of 1100 with the potential to run to 1222. Obviously, short the stock on a downbreak of the support line with a short covering price of channel support (outside the wedge) at 944. Short again if it drops below this.
Atkins stock chart;
This is another tricky move with great plays to the bulls and bears given by clear entry and exit signals. In the longer term, an opportunity to trade the channels will arise if the trend line support is breached. Use the prices 946 and 1222 for starters.
Dexion ABS (DAB)
Will keep it short and sweet. This stock looks in for a rough period of undefined length if the stock does not reverse at 149.5. This has so far failed a cup and handle, bull flag breakout and a break of the 100 day EMA all after a much failed triple top. The stochastics are very bearish, as are the other indicators and volume. I don't cover many shorts at the moment, but this looks like a good one.
Entry now with price target of 150p. A south break of 155p will add further significance to this drop. On the flip side, bull moves off 155p to above and confirmed prices >158p may see the blues in the winning corner.
Lol just checked my notes, I added this on the above, but also I might speculate that DAB is forming a WM pattern as mentioned in the post "Pattern Spotting" a few weeks ago. I will add the chart to see what you think.
Optimism on DAB chart;
Tullet Prebon (TLPR)
I have decided to withdraw TLPR from in depth analysis as it is not quite ready for entry. It sits in a channel from 433 to 490 in the short term - currently at 433. Look for a triple bottom bounce off 433 for target price of 485. The stochastics are a few days away from being ripe but I will monitor price action. Short on breach of 433 with price target of 390.
British American Tobacco (BATS)
Another ascending wedge here with maturing indicators that will be ready for entry this week. More of a medium term swing trade given the blue chip credentials of the victim.
Check the graphic for entry and exit signals. There have been enough wedges here so don't feel the need to cover. The gray line is indicative of where we might see the move, but more likely off the trend support given the recent double top and stochastics not quite ready yet, plus the MACD divergence didn't improve on the green day on Friday.
British American Tobacco stock chart;
Entry at the support line from the trend with a target of 2025.
ARM Holdings (ARM)
Visual explanation for ARM should suffice. Basically I'm looking for support at the 100 day EMA as all indicators look set for a drop. Inverse head and shoulders prediction led directly to a high double top which has not quite seen that big a drop yet.
I'm bearish with 99p representing a key value this week.
Renovo (RNVO)
I've gone for ultra-risk manoeuvres on RNVO. The stock has been in free fall lately as it plummeted to new lows on Thursday, followed by gap up bullishness on Friday. I probably won't enter this trade given the high risk nature, but it will be interesting to watch - for me it will either plummet or see spectacular Rocky comeback movement.
The stochastics look bullish leading into the next few days, but watch close. I will not be surprised to see this stock on the high gainers, or high losers lists this week. Wait for a fast line EMA break for entry.
British Airways (BAY)
Given the nature of the oil beast at the moment, I'm not so sure BAY is a stock I should be dicing with. I will look at it from a technical perspective. See the notes on the chart.
British Aiways stock chart;
Anglo Pacific (APF)
Straight forward flag play, check the chart for info.
Anglo Pacific stock chart;
Others:
Look for a double bottom off the previously mentioned Dairy Crest Group (DCG) at advances on Fridays closing price.
Look for continued moves to new highs on Petroneft (PTR).
I was going to cover more, but it's late and I'm tired.
Bellway (BWY)
Simple short term double bottom play here on BWY. The overall trend is down, but the support established in 2004 held the first time. This is a slightly higher risk play, but I feel this will make a move on Tuesday or Monday. Short term price target of 720. Go short on a bear break of 640.
Bellway stock chart;
Sci Entertainment Group (SEG)
For some reason the graph for SEG keeps mucking up so can't include. An OK strength expansion breakout on SEG is combined within an even bigger longer term consolidation range following huge drops in price over the past 8 months or so.
The stochastics is excellent, the ADX is strong, but what caught my eye was the volume behind the moves at the close of the week. I would put a conservative price target of 60 to 65. Not a great deal higher, but if caught at the right entry point could provide a decent quick return.
SEG has had its fair share of bullish engulfing since the drop, but this volume is the highest since that happened. There has been some selling pressure over the past few months as gaps have been filled and the gains did not surpass them. Potentially people getting out after anticipating better moves. Entry price around 53.5 depending on L2 activities.
VT Group (VTG)
Good looking chart here priming itself for a good entry point. VT group has enjoyed the past 5 years as the stock has pretty much been in an uptrend since 2003. A very strong ascending wedge has formed since January.
With stochastics in the oversold region but still bearish, the directional movement looking bearish and some recent heavy selling pressure - I believe this stock should hit the wedge support line and make a move from there. Entry points for this stock this week in my opinion are a bounce of the line, which represets anywhere between 631 on Tuesday, to 634 on Friday.
On a hit here I think we will see a bounce, based at least on the stochastics and basic technical analysis of trends and wedges. The 100 day EMA has held well, and has only been broken just as the SP hits the support. A similar move happened on Thursday and Friday. I will be looking for negative divergence and a slight move on the DMI and stochastics to alert me for an entry point in VTG.
VT Group stock chart;
I put a medium to long term price target of 811p on VTG, with a short term target of 695p if/when the stock bounces of the support line as shown. Let some run if the 700p area is broken on strength. Go short on a breakdown of the support.
Atkins (ATK)
Atkins is at an interesting juncture at present which I believe will turn bullish shortly. Like VTG the overall trend is up on the long term, but there has been some channeling between 1222 and 946 over the past 16 months. During this time the SP has not dropped out of the trend line, nor has it broken through overhead resistance at 1222.
This scenario sounds like a wedge but I'm not quite viewing it like that. The indicators aren't the best, except for stochastic - which looks good - and more importantly, ties in well with the support line. ATK has set up two short term resistance levels at current price and 1127.
I am bullish in ATK with the very short price target of 1100 with the potential to run to 1222. Obviously, short the stock on a downbreak of the support line with a short covering price of channel support (outside the wedge) at 944. Short again if it drops below this.
Atkins stock chart;
This is another tricky move with great plays to the bulls and bears given by clear entry and exit signals. In the longer term, an opportunity to trade the channels will arise if the trend line support is breached. Use the prices 946 and 1222 for starters.
Dexion ABS (DAB)
Will keep it short and sweet. This stock looks in for a rough period of undefined length if the stock does not reverse at 149.5. This has so far failed a cup and handle, bull flag breakout and a break of the 100 day EMA all after a much failed triple top. The stochastics are very bearish, as are the other indicators and volume. I don't cover many shorts at the moment, but this looks like a good one.
Entry now with price target of 150p. A south break of 155p will add further significance to this drop. On the flip side, bull moves off 155p to above and confirmed prices >158p may see the blues in the winning corner.
Lol just checked my notes, I added this on the above, but also I might speculate that DAB is forming a WM pattern as mentioned in the post "Pattern Spotting" a few weeks ago. I will add the chart to see what you think.
Optimism on DAB chart;
Tullet Prebon (TLPR)
I have decided to withdraw TLPR from in depth analysis as it is not quite ready for entry. It sits in a channel from 433 to 490 in the short term - currently at 433. Look for a triple bottom bounce off 433 for target price of 485. The stochastics are a few days away from being ripe but I will monitor price action. Short on breach of 433 with price target of 390.
British American Tobacco (BATS)
Another ascending wedge here with maturing indicators that will be ready for entry this week. More of a medium term swing trade given the blue chip credentials of the victim.
Check the graphic for entry and exit signals. There have been enough wedges here so don't feel the need to cover. The gray line is indicative of where we might see the move, but more likely off the trend support given the recent double top and stochastics not quite ready yet, plus the MACD divergence didn't improve on the green day on Friday.
British American Tobacco stock chart;
Entry at the support line from the trend with a target of 2025.
ARM Holdings (ARM)
Visual explanation for ARM should suffice. Basically I'm looking for support at the 100 day EMA as all indicators look set for a drop. Inverse head and shoulders prediction led directly to a high double top which has not quite seen that big a drop yet.
I'm bearish with 99p representing a key value this week.
Renovo (RNVO)
I've gone for ultra-risk manoeuvres on RNVO. The stock has been in free fall lately as it plummeted to new lows on Thursday, followed by gap up bullishness on Friday. I probably won't enter this trade given the high risk nature, but it will be interesting to watch - for me it will either plummet or see spectacular Rocky comeback movement.
The stochastics look bullish leading into the next few days, but watch close. I will not be surprised to see this stock on the high gainers, or high losers lists this week. Wait for a fast line EMA break for entry.
British Airways (BAY)
Given the nature of the oil beast at the moment, I'm not so sure BAY is a stock I should be dicing with. I will look at it from a technical perspective. See the notes on the chart.
British Aiways stock chart;
Anglo Pacific (APF)
Straight forward flag play, check the chart for info.
Anglo Pacific stock chart;
Others:
Look for a double bottom off the previously mentioned Dairy Crest Group (DCG) at advances on Fridays closing price.
Look for continued moves to new highs on Petroneft (PTR).
I was going to cover more, but it's late and I'm tired.
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