The Student Loan Ranger

I'm suffering another slow-broadband Saturday - I don't know why this always happens, but my internet is hardly any faster than the old dial-up on a Saturday morning and afternoon. I'll probably be impatient with uploading images and stuff.

Anyway, good watchlist in terms of triggers and signals - but bad because I missed out on trading a lot of them. The volatility in the FTSE this week meant that I had to draft a new watchlist for Fridays trading, because the stocks that had made their moves were pretty untradable by Thursday in terms of risk:reward ratios.

Next weeks CB should feature some heavy rotation, and should also feature some of the stocks mentioned on Thursdays intra-day watchlist posting Re: Friday.

Signet (SIG)
This was a straight forward descending wedge play - with 50p representing the key price. Most of these wedges are failing to hold support at the moment, and I expected a breakdown on SIG.

The price was triggered on Monday with the lows of 43p on Wednesday. SIG should re-test 50p on the coming week or so, therefore I would place a stop at about 53p but would also consider closing out at 43p if hit, as that represents a quick and solid profit trade. In the short term, SIG continues to reject the 10MA strongly, and next week could see some further drops in price.

Southern Cross (SCHE)
A sensational week, and one where I seriously regretted not catching this on the blatant short signal last Friday. The triple bottom descending wedge was broken on Friday - and the short trigger for Monday was sub 310p. I was nothing but bearish on this stock on the CB post.

SCHE had a horror week, and at lows, the price was slashed by 80%. It opened up down about 65% on Monday on the back of a horror trading statement and I made some quick cash on this on Monday morning. Had I continued to hold, I would have been in the blue to the tune of about £4000 a few hours later.

The shackles were put on this by Wednesday afternoon, where until Friday around lunch it consolidated and recovered, until it crashed again. I missed the intra-day breakdown because I had taken it off my watchlist - but SCHE has provided some excellent trading opportunities, short and long this week.

Tullet Prebon (TLPR)
I love a descending wedge at the moment, there is no setup stronger than this given the bear market we're trading through at the moment, it is funny to see the shift in balance over the past few months with the strength of different patterns, as not too long ago I was a bull-flag and channel man. All 3 new additions to the watchlist were D.Wedges, all 3 gave sell signals and all 3 were successful trades thus far.

I was looking initially at a long in TLPR, but our short signal at sub 400 triggered on Wednesday and it closed at 384 on Friday. We are double-bottomed at this level for the past 2 days so for another entry I would wait for this quick support to be breached before opening another short.

Afren (AFR)
3 weeks on the watchlist and this week we got our entry signal - a short. After strong gains, AFR had found a consolidation range between 160 and 180. These prices represented an entry depending on which way the price broke out. Tuesday gave the trigger, as AFR breached 160 and dropped to close the week just above lows, at 142.

AFR has bounced sharply intra-day off 138 - so in terms of a re-entry short I would look for a breach of this price, which also represents the original breakout and support on retracement at the end of April.

Eurasian (ENRC)
I was surprised by the moves in ENRC this week. Last week we successfully traded the 1300-1500 range. Moves out of this bracket also indicated an entry long or short. Tuesday gave our short signal on a breach of 1300, and ENRC was hammered down to lows of 1020.

This is a tricky one to call now, and probably not a good trade until we can establish a more solid support line. I think the new range will be 1000-1300 in the short term at least. Look for moves following Fridays inside day.

Dragon Oil (DGO)
Made some moves and has retraced this week too. Entry was moves above 440, which came on Monday. It has retraced to 454 after highs at 490. I am bullish on DGO given the imminent golden cross in the fast lines, but I didn't enjoy watching this stock this week, the spreads and book aren't the best, and CMC Markets were very slow off the mark when I tried to enter at 441 and didn't offer me a competitive price given the book at that time. No chart needed here.

Ferrexpo (FXPO)
Entry trigger was breaks of 400, we got that this week on Monday, and this crashed to 328 in a nightmare week for metal stocks. I see 280 as the only real support for FXPO in the medium term, and 350 should prove stern resistance on the retracement. Inside day on Friday could prove interesting.

I will keep monitoring this one, as the movements come quickly and aggressively - a good form of volatility imo.

Renovo (RNVO)
No signals here, as RNVO continues to reject 40p.

WPP Group (WPP)
Gave a short signal on Monday, and has continued this waterfall breakdown. Looking grim, and this has a long way to go in terms of a retracement to prior support. A £1 recovery will see this happen, but I can only be a bear for WPP given the current climates.

Close Brothers (CBG)
Been watching this for a while, initially I was bullish given proximity to support as well as a good set of indicators - stochastics, adx and macd were encouraging. However, I have become bearish because it hasn't moved yet - and it should have by now imo.

The 20EMA was hit and rejected this week as the stock struggles to break 550. Twice lately it has dropped to sub 500, and it closed near lows on Friday. I will continue to monitor with an entry to short at 496 and I expect this to come on Monday. CBG has halved in value this year, and I see no reason why this trend should not continue.


From the ALERTS section:

• XTA hit the 200MA square on the jaw and bounced off quite nicely. Expecting more gains next week.

• RRS made further gains this week, as it broke a short term downward trend. Broke the 50MA well as predicted and hit the first price target at 2400 bang on.

• BG. is barely holding the 100MA, at it's low, it was 1p off triggering a short signal and I'm feeling bearish on drops below 1190 next week. Watch for the wick bounce though.

• CNE didn't give a signal either, as it messes around between our trigger prices. Dangerously close to a short signal on breaks of 2975 this week.

• Same story for PMO, 100MA still important.

• No trigger on REL, SVT or SHB - all look quite negative at the moment.

• Sell signal on INCH after breaking 315 and closing out at 291.

• SGRO triggered and is down a matter of pence on the entry.

Another 100% week on trigger price being followed through in the opening direction. I'm going to rotate a lot of stocks this week on both elements of the watchlist. At the moment DGO, RNVO and SCHE are probably off the core list. XTA is the only stock from the alerts section to be upgraded, and next week will probably see a very different alerts section.

From memory, BDEV and RDW have trading statements this week. They will be terrible, and if they follow the other house builders, then the market will react very badly and they should drop more, if that's even possible.

For me, next week will be about timing my entries and exits better.