The Student Loan Ranger

I liked the watchlist this week, the stocks have developed well over the past 5 days, and after this week I will be working a watchlist rotation system so I can continue to monitor the stocks that continue to follow my analysis. By constantly watching a select group of stocks I will hopefully be in a better position to predict their movements.

Due to college commitments, which were pretty heavy this week - I was only able to make one entry this week. I traded JKX and held for a few hours and made a good trade. I had to close because I was due at college, and my new broker doesn't have a web platform to monitor trades while I'm away from my own PC.

The early volatility spooked me a little, and I wanted to lock in profits before I left for college. Had I held I would have made an extra £250, but as it is I feel I made the right call to take the money, as you will never go broke if you take profits.

Afren (AFR)
I said on Sunday that AFR was "showing early signs of finding support at 160, the 50 day moving average, or the ascending wedge trend line". AFR found the 50 day MA, the 160p price level, and depending on your pencils thickness, the wedge trend line.

AFR hammered on Thursday and had a strong up day on Friday, up 5% and closing at daily highs. All the analysis from last week still applies to this stock, and the signs are good for a strong rally to new highs next week. AFR has strong support at 160p at the moment, and thus represents a good long opportunity with stops at around 157p. I would put a conservative price target of 175p in the immediate short term, with a potential breakout looking good.

Any negativity in AFR will come in the form of bear movements around the 50day MA or a breakdown of 160. I will continue to monitor this stock next week.

Dragon Oil (DGO)
This hasn't given a signal this week, I keep switching from bullish to bearish, however Friday seemed to give indications of a turnaround in favour of the bulls. The 400-450 range still applies, and Friday also moved well off the upward trend line.

Negative divergence continues on the MACD, and the stochastics haven't been too great an indicator for the past 3 or 4 weeks. I will continue to monitor, with a break on strong volume over 450 my leading indicator. 400 remains support, and should this be breached, I would enter short with stops at 410. I am currently bullish, but I will most likely change my mind several times this week.

Ferrexpo (FXPO)
I was hoping for big things from FXPO this week, given its inclusion to the FTSE 100. On Friday, FXPO did give a sell signal - but this happened to coincide with the price finding the 50 day MA, and the stock rebounded off the lows of 381 to close at 395, 5p below our short entry sub 400.

Breaks of 440 still apply for longs, but as for shorts I have re-adjusted my entry point to 380. Despite the so-far successful short trade in FXPO on triggers, I keep some confidence in it as a long. The best signal with this one is a bounce or a crash off the 50 day MA on Monday or Tuesday.

Eurasian (ENRC)
Incredible accuracy this week in ENRC, as it trigger the short entry price of 1400, and then reached our cover price of 1300 before closing at 1340 on Friday. The bounce on Friday was off the trendline, however, due to the down moves this week ENRC is back under the 50day MA.

Pleased with how this one turned out. And the current 1300-[1400/1500] range offers some quick trading opportunities. I will track this using the same analysis as next week. Keep an eye out for 50day resistance, as well as 1400. Stochastics look pretty good, but the divergence on the MACD is not very encouraging.

Kingfisher (KGF)
This weeks "yawner", KGF didn't really do much of anything. New lows haven't come, and the range is quite tight. Good divergence on MACD though, and I believe KGF will continue to consolidate until it hits the 20 day MA before making a drop or a rise below the short trigger of 110p. No need for a chart here, and I will move this off my watchlist.

Marstons (MARS)
Marstons was a slight more exciting than KGF, as at least we got a signal here. Our trigger to enter short was "further drops on Fridays close (183)". Our signal came on Monday, and the stock has tried to breach the new resistance at 180 a few times, after being as low as 172. Closed in the profit this week.

No real need for a chart here either, and new entry prices include sub 170p and breaks of 200 with 180-200 a trading opportunity for the brave. I am so far undecided as to whether MARS will be on next weeks watchlist.

Renovo (RNVO)
This stock is shaping up nicely and is showing some nice signs of a break out. Not only did RNVO close at highs on Friday, it bounced well off the 20MA and the short term ascending wedge trend line.
No entry signals this week on either side, and the entry price of 43p on volume remains the long entry. Short on a breakdown of the ascending wedge, the moving average, or a horizontal support price of 35p. On a time-scale note, the wedge will be penetrated this week, so I'm looking for a move outside this wedge next week for a signal - but be wary of consolidation in the 35-41p price range. RNVO maintains watchlist status.

WPP Group (WPP)
Yogi bear has nothing on this stock as it continues it's downward momentum. The negativity over the past 8 months I mentioned last week has continued through the past 5 days as it edges towards all time lows at the lowest price in over 3.5 years. WPP has also completed a very long term head and shoulders over the past 2.5 years (fully formed 2 weeks ago), which would technically give us a price target of 400p.

As for last week, our short entry price was 520, it was triggered and WPP closed the week at 483.75p, down 7.5% on the week. I will keep watching this next week, as I believe this is going nowhere but down to the 400p price target given by the head and shoulders. The H&S pattern was fully formed when WPP closed below 580 - and look what has happened since then - trademark waterfall action and down £1 and 20%.

I also mention in the watchlist I was monitoring a few stocks based on trigger prices alone, and didn't include the charts. These were TATE, JKX, SFR, SXS and EME.

I traded JKX on the 440 support or meltdown scenario, take a look at the chart for the reasoning. I opened at 481 and took profits very early for reasons mentioned earlier at 491. I really should have held, but I had to make a call. I really like this one going forward, and will be looking for drops caused by profit taking next week.


SFR had nice movements, but I missed these ones. I mentioned SFR long on breaks of 282, but the triple top from the week before took it's toll, before it crashed against the 20MA and dropped hard as low as 220. 260 is now resistance on SFR, and I am bearish on the stock that 'The Student Loan Ranger' traded first.

TATE made new lows but consolidates under 400 (the key price at the moment), while EME continues to hold around 50p.

The answer of the "Will SXS hold support at 711 a third time?" was no, and it closed the week out at 698. However, looking at the chart, the support/resistance zone is quite large, therefore it is probably not the best stock to make a good call on.

This week I have learned that it is good to zoom out to a 4 year view of trending stocks to try and identify key patterns that have evolved over a greater time scale. WPP is the best example of that this week. These patterns will give you a greater understanding of where the trend is likely to head in terms of price. Although I will still make calls based on the yearly chart and the patterns contained therein, it is good to have a backup target in case a trade really starts to work for you.

KGF and MARS at this early stage are watchlist casualties, to be replaced by better setups. On a side note, I'm having issues with Java at the moment, and can't launch prorealtime. If I can't run my scans, then I will have to focus on the stocks above, and maybe a few charts I can check on the simplified version of PRT.

Post script realisation: 100% success rate on traded trigger points this week!