The Student Loan Ranger

On holiday in a different country with a different operating system so spent some time working on a new risk calulator because I didn't take my existing one with me. I prefer this one now and will incorporate it into my trade tracker spreadsheet. Also helps for scaling in and out.

Leave a message/email if you want a copy.

This took a long, long time to compile this week so let's do this..

Big post this week. Click the tickers to get the charts from last week that continue

Stocks on a continuation from last weeks post at here

AMB
Entry long at $18 with stops at $17.75. Next support level for me is $16.50, then $14.85-$15. My bias is long. Longer term a failure of $14.85 represents a good short entry with an initial target of $12 with potential for $11.

BHI
Looking for BHI to break above $31 and retest that as support for a long entry with stops at $31.80. Target range is $32.50-$34. Major overhead at $34.50 wth next support level at $30 then $28. Will trade the prices and remain neutral here.

EWZ
Entry price at $43.35 with stops at $42.75 meaning this is one for a smaller position size than normal. A failure of $43 sees next support at $41. A failure of $41 would make me very bearish with targets at $38 and $36.

HCP
Looking for HCP to retest the support line around $20 for a long with about a $0.30 stop. Measured move from this breakout is $23.25. Has a support trendline and the 200EMA on the 30 min too. Would look to take another long at the next key level at $16.50, a failure of this and I'm looking at $15 to cover.

MRVL
Approaching overhead now, has nice support horizontally and with the 200EMA on the daily. Have moved the stop to $10.05 and will consider scaling in more here. Really not looking to short this one at the moment.

AAPL
Remains short from last week at $120 with stops at $121 and target at $115. Will move a break-even stop at $119 and then trail a $1 stop from there as this could pop.

JCP
Would really like to scale in long on a retest of $22.50 as support. Big gap on nice volume and at the 200EMA means this is a choppy trade until then for me. Use a $0.75 stop here after being caught out on last weeks long. Looking for $27.50.

XLK
Stop moved to break-even at $16.25 for half with remainder at $15.90 with a target at the 200EMA and overhead resistance. Would like to add to the position at $16 if the action looks bullish.

GYMB
Descriptive signal triggered at close on Thursday, full analysis covered this week so scroll down.

New additions:

Canadian Solar CSIQ
Channel play in what is essentially a bear flag setup in the long term. For the swing setup the key level is $7.50. We have bull flagged for the past few days up at resistance with some good if not spectacular buying pressure. Oversold on the daily indicators here.

Looking closer on the 60 minute there is some good support in the $6-$6.25 region, however we are looking at forming a descending triangle here is this pennant/flag doesn't quite work out. The good thing is that this pullback has been on minimal and declining volume.

Due to the nature of this setup, a trader will have to be very quick at making up their mind whether to go short or long. The short term tradable range is $1.25 in a stock under $10 which is quite substantial.

I have used the daily chart instead of the 60 day as it shows the setup a little more clearly.

Long;
$6.50 with stops at $6.20 with an initial target of $10-$11. At $7 I would sell 1/4 and move the remainder of the position to break-even.

A breakout of $7.50 provided the volume looks good. Stops at $7.30 with initial target at $9.50. I would look to manage this trade in a manner that really prevents drawdown, potentially selling 1/4 at $8, $8.5 and then $9 with a remainder stop trailed by $0.50.

In the real longer term, an entry at $3 is sound but unlikely. The measured move from the channel and double bottom is at $11 (where the 200EMA is on the daily)

Short;
Breakdown of $6.50 with target of $5. Scale out 1/4 at $5.50 and move the stop to $6.00 and see out the rest of the trade as per this weeks 30% 'drawdown from high' rule.

The long setup here represents the best risk reward ratio, in your favour by about 12:1

Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK
Playing this as a 123 setup with a support price of $60. I am looking for this to get to about $65 before retracement based on the last gap fill channel move at $55. There is scope here for $70 but I would really like this to pullback first.

This is a relatively straight forward setup, and again I include the daily instead of the 60 day. Good divergence shown here.

Long;
$60 with stop at $59.75. Initial target at $68 with a view for $70 (1/2 at $68 - $0.50 trailed stop).

Short;
I am not looking at a short in DECK until the price has dropped below $50.

Fossil Inc FOSL
Very busy chart but bear with me. The dashed blue lines act both as support and resistance that aren't horizontal. I see these every now and again but few work as well as they are here. I am bullish here on FOSL so use the lower line in the trade. Daily chart first, also included the 60min for your pleasure.

This has had a great move lately, however the volume has not been superb. Nice breakout from $17.50 but with the 200EMA right above it on the daily, I have to expect a pullback to re-test the support range. The short term triangle is a pennant in the medium term. Continuation on the horizon.

Short term ascending triangle measured move is $19.50 and that is my initial target. Second target is the measured channel move at $20.50. I have two concerns here first is the lack of volume in the breakout, second is the formation of a bear flag with negative divergence on the macd. Those factors are what makes this a great two way setup. I expect this to pullback to $17.50 which provides the first entry.

Long;
At $17.50 with stops at $17.20 with initial target at $19.50 (1/2 here) to $20.50 for remainder. Stop is trailed $0.50 here with the 30% max profit drawdown stop applying here as with the rest of the watchlist.

Short;
I am hesitant to enter short given the amount of bullish continuation signals here. I would really only look to short at $15.50 to $14. Giving up $14 more or less signals a strong reversal with targets at $11.50.

I am short term bearish medium term bullish.

Jetblue Airways JBLU
I think there could be a few watching this one next week. JBLU really in no mans land at the moment, and I feel this could be a great trade both ways this week.

Strong overhead at $4.50 is now support. The trend is definitely up after a micro head and shoulders, and there is also an ascending triangle at work. Full 200EMA support on the 60 day too.

However, there is some strong resistance coming up. Notably the 200EMA on the daily, horizontal at $5.25 and a resistive trendine also at $5.25 at the moment. The amount of overhead increases at $6.25.

I am anticipating a slight drift upwards before a pullback to $4.50. The ascending triangle measured move is at $6, the channel measured move is $5.50. I feel that the pullback to $4.50 is backed up with negative divergence in both indicators, and the price is extended from the moving averages.

Long;
Long at $4.50 with stops at $4.25 with initial targets at $5.25-50, and then $6.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting this at $4.10 downwards to $3.50 with stops at $4.25

This trade will be re-evaluated should JBLU close above the following levels; $5.25, $6.25.

The Gymboree Corp GYMB
I am just gagging to short this. Well, I already have as the alert was triggered right at the close on Thursday. 25% jump, closed right at the resistance level which goes back a few years. Also at the 200EMA on the daily. Yes there is huge volume on that move, but check the volume on the previous drop. People re-adjusting their portfolio and getting carried away maybe? Short covering gone mad? It's up 100% in the past month. This smells like war food Sunday - overcooked.

Long;
The only long here is a retest of $27.50 after GYMB has been as high as $30, with a target of $35. I am not at all interested in a long this week.

Short;
Right now or from $27.30-60. Stop at $28 - this is slightly lax I expect some buyer spill-over from last week into Monday. Initial target at $24 for 1/2 with the remainder at a falling window gap close at $22.50.

Westamerica Bancorporation WABC
Somebody needs to explain the WABC business model to me because I straight up don't understand the chart. If you exclude the crazy price action from September 19th last year, WABC is only down 23% from last years highs.

If you compare that to the other regional banks of a similar market cap you can see good relative strength; CYN -44% BOH-46% ZION -75% GBCI -60%. Looks like a good deal should the rest of the market re-test the bottoms of the year. Generally all this sector does is consolidate, albeit in a large range.

We've broken out from the overhead at $49 off an ascending triangle that has a measured move of $55.50. This chart looks very boring, but that's ok, trading isn't always an adrenalin rush. The only thing I'm looking at is $49, and whether or not this will pullback to there. Watch out for $55.50 before the pullback as that could provide a micro-short.

Long;
Retest of $49.25 with stops at $48.65 (small size because of exposure). With targets partially at $54 (1/4) with stop moved to $52.50 and trailed a buck up to $55.50 - at that point there will be potential for $60 on a measured move so I'll keep my analysis updated for that.

Short;
A quick trader will spot the rally is ending by checking histogram divergence and bearish candlestick formations. I predict this could be at about $54 but will let you know. A scalpers trade.

Realistically not looking to short WABC medium-long term until $44 is a goner.

Brocade Communications BRCD
Busy chart. V bottom reversal, bear flag, pennant and nice breakout above resistance at $4. Closed above and successfully retested the 200EMA as support with a nice looking doji in good volume. Measured move from channel is $5 with longer term measured move at $6 (also a resistance point).

More of a longer term trade, I would be looking to enter long here at two levels, and due to that it required good risk management to cope with the exposure. The only overhead that I spy with my little eye is a gap fill at about $5.20. Apart from that we are rosy until long term overhead at $6.

I like the bullishness of this chart, and I'm keen to enter on a pullback.

Long;
Remember risk management is vital in this trade. 1/4 at $4.50 with a view to get more at $4.25 and $4, really depends on the type of trader you are. Realistically I would like to see $5 before we pullback and ideally I am looking to enter at the 200EMA or $4.25 with stops at $3.80. Partial target at $5, seen out to $6 with very aggressive management after $4.95. This setup represents the absolute minimum risk reward setup I like to trade at 3:1

Short;
I would look to short this at $6 with a stop at $6.25, working with a 4:1 ratio with targets first at $5, and then around $4.50.

A breakdown of $4 will offer a scalper a $0.50 trade, but I would not personally trade this given my account rules.

Smithfield Foods SFD
A stock that looks like it follows its measured moves pretty well. A strange key level in $11.30 here, but one that was breached on Thursday either way. Excellent double bottom - check the positive divergence on the macd and increased buying pressure. Long term measured move from that is $25, but I'm focusing on a smaller time scale this week.

In my mind the support levels are $11.30, $10.50 and $10 and I remain bullish until $10 is given up on volume. The volume has been thin lately, so we need a boost early next week or we'll pull back to these levels - fine enough if we want to go long. An entry without this level of pullback could be difficult.

Short term overhead at $12.50 and $13 with longer term resistance range at $15-$17.50. The 200EMA and resistive trendline are in the vicinity, which add weight to the pullback claim.

Long;
Pullback to $11.30 as a water tester with 1/4, however I am more likely to advise $10.50 as the entry point with stops at $9.85. Target initial at $12.50, with a view to either closing or tightening stops at $13 or the 200EMA.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting SFD at $12.50 with a $0.25 ONLY IF the rise if on low volume and the 200EMA is right there. I would look for bearish candlestick action too, and if possible, more negative divergence on the macd histogram.

Yingli Green Energy YGE
I can only assume these guys are Chinese with a name like that, and it's good to spread the exposure. I quite like this chart, but nearly didn't include it this week.

We are testing $7.50 for the 4th time as resistance after 2 higher lows in what most would assume is an ascending triangle. I don't like the ascension here and I'm viewing this more as a channel trade or a 123. Strong resistive trendline and 200EMA await overhead, apart from that there is minimal horizontal until $12.50. Volume has been strong on the latest rally

I will be watching the candlesticks here as we look extended, and we are right between strong overhead and support, meaning any potential move could be strong. Ideally I would like to see a move to the 200EMA and then a pullback to $7.50.

Long;
At a retest of $7.50 after a breakout providing the chart shows strength (pullback on lower volume) for an entry long with stops at $7.20. Initial target at $9.50. Approach this entry with caution, as I would like the price to test the 200EMA before the pullback. The other important factor here is the gap at $9.12-36.

Second entry if you miss that, and one that represents a more favourable risk reward ratio is an entry off short term support at $6.25 with stops at $6.13

Short;
I would be comfortable with a short at $12 downwards with a stop at $12.25.

Short two for me is a breakdown of $6 with a target at $4.75 and a $0.25 stop.


Descriptive trades (no chart needed, check the dailies or 60d 60m):

Ak Steel AKS- short at $10, tight stop, psychological number, enter long on retest as support if breakout
Alpha Natural Resources ANR - trade channel at $15-$21.50 with short term support at $17
Temple-Inland TIN - Long at $6.25 as a re-test after a breakout, stop at $5.95. Short below $4.75

Stocks that didn't make the final cut this week: EWH JNY FO

Blogger is playing up.. again. I need my own .com

Nothing worse than a gapping market for my style of trading, Thursday in particular was just straight up annoying as there weren't really new trades for swing traders to take positions in.
Before I cover this weeks watchlist, our one hold from last week - RTN hit the revised target at $41.60.  The original target was $43 and that may still hit, but for record purposes lets stick with $41.60 flat. 

I'm on a spontaneous holiday to Australia at the moment for the Easter holidays which is why there hasn't been any 'intra-day action' posts this week so far. Just sorted out my TOS platform on the computer here so will be looking to trade from tonight onwards. Apologies for any bad picture quality etc as I'm working off a one monitored Mac with a sluggish mouse just now.

Just wanted to cover a few signals that have been triggered on the watchlist this week so far. Also would like to give a shout out to a returning visitor from Estonia - thanks for checking out my blog.

Refer to the post here for technical analysis of the watchlist.

First off is RTN Raytheon, which was a hold into this week from last weeks watchlist. Here is the original chart, and I was looking at $38 again for another entry.

The $41.60 target has been reached for +$3.60 and RTN continues to look pretty good to me.

The potential short I mentioned in AMB was triggered off a double top at $18 at a resistance level. I was looking for $15 and it's currently at $15.80 with lows at $15.50.

I said I wouldn't trade this personally due to the nature of my account, but for any position traders or scalpers this was a nice setup even closing at $16 was a r:r of 15:1

CHK hasn't triggered yet but looks ripe for a breakout. If the next low is higher than $18.75 (which I think it will be, given the gap level) then we are forming an ascending triangle with a target of $23 in the short term.


CHK remains in the support and resistance ranges for all patterns mentioned on the watchlist post.

BHI was an easy short as it gave up $31 at the open on Monday. I have closed this trade given the double bottom yesterday at $28.50 for +$1.50.



I was short term bearish on WY and anticipated a pullback to $30. WY double topped at a resistance zone and has since sold off to $28 from $31.

Limit orders would have had you at a loss already on this, however a sharp trader wouldn't have gone long after that double top so we can assume a small loss for records here. I am bearish here.

Descriptive trade on the channel at HCP was triggered, down $2 and looking good. I would move a stop to $18.50 here to see it out to $17.

Longer term watchlist (check the dailies):
MRVL, hell of a battle at $10 but I'm feeling good about this. Anticipating a pop to $11 or so in the short term if it gets going.

JCP is also looking excellent here and I am bullish until $24 at the moment, but realistically I'm looking for $27.50. Long term trade was triggered at the close last night guys!

Trade also triggered at $16.25 on XLK. Stop at $15.85, would like to see $17.50 short term.

CSCO - rock or implode? implode by the looks of things. Big island reversal at the 200EMA and down over $2. Mentioned the stock but didn't give price levels as it wasn't a probable trade either way for me.

Also it looks like I meant $15.40 long on GPS not $15.50 as it hasn't been above that to pullback to that level. Volatile chart at the moment, looking for upward momentum. GYMB also selling.

No triggers quite yet
EWZ, AAPL.

OK I brought it back.

These are what I'll be watching in the week ahead so far. Variety of setups and a variety of timescales. Quite a lot of stocks getting near important areas on their daily charts, the most significant stock at this point imo is AAPL. Absolute text book 123 short at around $120 next week. A rally over this will be pretty big for the markets.

Week ahead:
WY, CHK, BHI, EWZ, HCP & AMB

Longer term:
CSCO, MRVL, JCP, AAPL, UNG & XLK

Charts and views to follow, probably on Sunday. Here's a sneak peak so far;

Sunday update:
Let's roll.

Here are my setups for this week, with some longer ones to follow. There is one stock that straddles the two, and that's AAPL. Just to note I am hesitant to state whether or not I am bullish or bearish this week. I will check the markets on Monday pre open and see what the story is. I am still slightly bearish if anything, as I don't believe this rally is the bottom. There are also some big stocks coming up to major resistance levels - and the indices.. well I'll be convinced once $SPX makes it over, and closes above 880.

AMB Amb Property Corp.
Working off the 30d/30m here, with price levels checked for the daily. What I'm seeing here is a nice run to a recent overhead at $18 on good consistent buying pressure. There has been a nice ascending triangle, the target of which was passed on Fridays trading. The line in the sand for me is the $14.75 region where we gapped up over the support level. There is not much resistance until $25.

I am short term bearish, medium term bullish with no long term opinion on AMB.


My entry here is either long at $18 after it has broken above and pulled back - or something in the region of $15. We are overcooked on the indicators for me, however the divergences are positive. I believe by the time we pullback to $15 we'll have 200EMA support giving a low risk high reward entry of approx 9.25:1

Long:

1. At $14.75-$15 with stops at $14. T1 (partial) at $18 (stop to $16), T2 $22+ (trail stop by $1)
2. At $18 after a move upwards above given that there is MA support, good divergence and volume. Stops at $17.75 with targets at $22 (same rules as before).

Short:

1. Potential scalp at open from $18-$15 (I won't trade this)
2. Breakdown of $14.50 with targets around $12 (with $14.85 stop)
   

I would also like to state that the MACD signal line on the 60d/60m chart is providing the trendline for the move in AMB. A failure of this trendline, with retest, would result in me becoming bearish and looking to take a short position as per;


CHK Chesapeake Energy
Quite a standard setup here. Lots of overhead in the $20 region but we are looking up on the 60d/60m. Inverse H&S (just spotted) gives a highly optimistic target of $26, but I see short term resistance in the $21.75 region. If we can get a nice move above $20 I will look to enter on the retest. CHK could really pop in the next week or two given the chance. The only short I am looking to take here is a breakdown of $16.50 down to $13.75.


CHK shows promise on the daily chart too. On entry criteria the RRR (risk reward ratio from now on) is 15:1.

I am short term bearish, medium term bullish, long term bullish on CHK.

Long (favourable):

1. At retest of $20 after a breakout above there. Would really look for this to close above $20 as part of the entry criteria. Stops at $19.75. T1 (partial) at $21.75 with stops moved to $21. T2 at $25/200EMA.
   

Short:

1. Breakdown of $16.50
   

CHK shows good relative strength for the sector, and I would advise watching the crude oil futures, RIG, SLB, HAL & OXY here. Also OIL XLE DIG. I am definitely bullish here above $20.#

BHI Baker Hughes Inc
The simplest chart and entry criteria of this weeks watchlist. The key level here is $31. The question is this; Will BHI hold the 123 with all EMA support (30d/30m) and boost it to $33.50?


Long (favourable):

1. From $31-$31.25 with stops at $30.85. T1 (partial) at gap close of $32.50 with stops moved to $31.75. T2 $33-$33.50 with pretty tight stops from $32.50 upwards.
2. A break above $34 retested as support for the first time with stops at $33.50.

Short:

1. Scalpable short under $31 to $30.
2. Swing short on breakdown of $29.75 to $27.50

I am short term bullish, medium term bullish with no long term opinion on BHI.

RRR approx 6:1

EWZ Ishare MSCI Brazil ETF thing
Pivotal level for EWZ this week. Been looking into these funds at the moment, and some fundamental research has suggested that Brazil is in the top 3 economies best placed to recover from the recession. For a longer term play this is promising, for the short term, this is also tradable.

At the moment we are between support and resistance levels. Short term support has been established on a 123 with the price at $41. Medium term resistance on my charts is circa $42.25 with the 200EMA also pressing.

The setup is fairly straight forward for entry...


Long (favourable):

1. A retracement to $41 offers a supreme setup. Long at $41 with stops at $40.80. T1 (partial) at $43 with stops to $42. T2 at $46.50 with stops trailed without aggression. Watch out for the 200EMA on this one too.
2. After a breakout above $43, the retracement to that level as support offers entry 2. Stops at $42.75 with targets at $45+$47 with stops and trailing applied as above.

Short:

1. I would short EWZ only at a breakdown of $40 provided there is high volume on the pullback and no moving average support featuring correct divergence on the indicators. This is a high risk short in my opinion.

I am bullish on EWZ across all timeframes. I would like to see this show relative strength relative to the US indices as well as the other emerging market funds. RRR setup is a ridiculous 20:1 average meaning if $41 is on the table, there are absolutely no excuses for not trading this one!

Others.
I was going to include these charts and descriptions but I'm not convinced on their transparency for the week ahead.

First off is WY Weyerhaeuser

I'm looking for a long on a close above $33, or on a pullback to the $30 region. These setups are risky given the recent gap activity and it's now in a congested resistance zone. I am short term bearish, medium bullish, long term no opinion.

I was also going to cover HCP Hcp Inc, however the setup is purely a consolidation trade. Current resistance $20.10, current support $17. Short and long in this range, or short and long on a breakout of this range. Easy trades that don't warrant the bandwidth and time on a chart.

Longer term setups

MRVL Marvel Technology Group
Tremendous chart here in my opinion. Nice ascending channel after a trend establishing inverse head and shoulders. Trading above all moving averages and just closed above $10 - an important psychological value in trading. Nice compact consolidation range in the lead up to Wednesdays engulfing candle too. Progressive volume is another strong factor in favour of MRVL. Measured moves here are at $10.50 so more room to run. We are at horizontal resistance and channel resistance based on Fridays close so I anticipate a pullback.


There are a few setups here, the best one is an entry long at $8.30 - however I don't think we'll catch that as the 123 was already hit on March 17th. A strong close above $10 would be my second favourite entry here, and there is also potential at $9.75. If we can get over $11, then I don't see anything until $13, $14 and $16 so there are a variety of trades here both short and longer term.

I am bullish on MRVL but a drop below $8 would make me highly bearish here.

AAPL Apple Inc
This is the "big one" this week. AAPL is approaching major, major overhead on the daily (going back to 2007). It had a nice 123 breakout with support at $103 and $110 at the moment. I don't often watch tech stocks, something I will change here.

The volume lately has been strong, but not remarkable. Other tech stocks have been firing up lately, most notably RIMM and AMZN. The tech spyder is also looking strong, but shows signs of weakening soon based on resistance areas (covered later)


An on fire AAPL will no doubt boost the rest of the market, and I believe everyone and their Grandma will be watching it this week. The key price I'm looking at is $120. It's the first retest of a 123 setup (generally the strongest) and we are oversold everywhere. The MACD is trending quite nicely however, and we have had strong candle stick formations out of that bull flag last week.

I believe we will see $120 this week, which is why this straddles both long and short term setups. A scale in short at $120 is what I have on the cards. However given the nature of the beast, my stop will be loosened (circa $125) giving me a low, but still favourable (3:1), risk reward setup. I am not convinced we will see <$105 anytime soon.

JCP Penney J C Co
Bit of retail here. Very nice chart here, another that I think will show up on other peoples' scans this week. Medium term overhead has been around $22.50 lately. This closed at $23.06 on Friday after 3 strong days of volume out of a bull flag setup. There is a trend reversing double bottom in play, and inverse head and shoulders, a cup and handle and rounded bottom. I am very bullish on JCP in the short-medium, but expect some pullback from the 200EMA soon.


The measured moves from the patterns range from $30.17-$33.48. I think we will see the action here this week too. I would like to enter long on a pullback to $22.60 with stops at $21.50. I am hesitant to short here given the amount of bullish reversal and continuation patterns, and I see more upside than downside here. The 200EMA and $27.50 are my short term targets, longer term I'm looking for the measured move range as indicated by the purple action on the chart.

XLK Technology SPDR
Not much of a tech or sector player, but XLK is looking OK and coincides well with AAPLs potential move. I put the big jump down to strong results in the tech sector lately with lots of money moving there since mid January.


We are approaching a resistive trendline, the 200EMA and some horizontal all in the same region. I would like to see a pennant form for an entry, but ideally I'm looking for a little jump, a pullback to $16.25 and then a blast off to around $18. Nice looking chart. Not looking to go short here.

UNG US Nat Gas ETF
Have not seen an instrument do this for a long time, even dead cats bounce but not UNG. Lots of attention here too I think on this beaten down ETF. How much longer can this downward momentum last? There has been some short covering/accumulation lately here, and I am looking for some signs of life..


Watch the MACD, volume and 40EMA here on the daily as they will be the first indicators. Current resistances for me are $16, $18, $22.50 and $26. If we start to see these get taken out, go long. Would like to see a double bottom or a 123 above $16 with MA support for a long myself.

Others:
I was going to cover Cisco (CSCO). Currently at the 200EMA with a gap up over support at $18. This could rock or implode here.

Gap (GPS) looks good on a pullback to $15.40 for a long. In the same sector we have a wild chart on Gymboree (GYMB) approaching a gap close area. Would like to eventually short it at $27.50.

Bit of a wrap up here on what I thought was going to happen last week. LNC was probably the biggest mover on the list - I was bullish into Monday morning but the gap down meant no order was on here so I won't cover the chart.

RTN Raytheon
I was bullish on RTN too, and said I would enter long on a retracement back to the gap area from $37.75-$38.25. We got an entry and we still have our position, however we are dead crossed on the short term MAs with the 200EMA coming up nicely underneath. Still bullish here above $38 - a pretty sound short term short trade is on the cards under that level for me.

BNI Burlingon N Santa Fe
Looking good here too, very nice bull flag out of the long term resistance trendline. Entry criteria here was a break above $63 or a pullback to the $60 region. We got the $60 entry first. The initial target was $65 which was hit on Tuesday. Nice trade and looking for continuation with $65 as support.


DY Dycom Industries
Entry here was a retest of the $5.30 region on a 123 with MA support. This setup was signalled on Monday with a nice candlestick formation off the 200EMA. The measured move for the ascending triangle was $6.75 which was hit on the button. This area looks congested here given it is also at the ascending channel resistance lines with negative divergence on the indicators. I am looking at $6.00 as a new support level. This has already been tested with a wick down so I'm not sure if this will hold next week.


HD Home Depot
Trade signalled here too, although it was a dangerous one. The short criteria was below $52 which came straight off the bat on Monday morning. at best this move was only worth $0.75 and either you would have sold out at the short term double bottom on Tuesday morning, or at the same level on Wednesday. If not there, you'd have been stopped. A re-entry on the gap up on Thursday would have been good enough yet again for only $0.75 as the $54 target was hit. With all these varibles (3:1 in favour of system) I can only put this in as a small profit trade for record purposes.


FCX Freeport Mcmoran
Another mixed entry bag with FCX, according to my setups we would have had 2 trades here. First was a short at open on Monday at open ($40) which you would have carried probably until the double bottom/bullish engulfing at $37 for 3 points. The other was a scale long over $39 with $43 as the target (also hit) for another 4 points. Nice trades!


DE Deere & Co
I was very bearish on DE, entry was triggered at the open on Monday at $33.90. I was looking for $30 but the exit would have been taken at a double bottom at the 200EMA at the open on Wednesday for approx $1.50. I was not looking for any long position here and DE actually broke out long this week which was surprising.


EXC Exelon Corp
I was very very bearish on EXC and was caught out on the trade here. I shorted at open on Monday and at best had $70 in the kitty. I kept holding as there was no real exit reason until $46. I closed a little before that on strength and this rippsed to $48.80. I am now looking to enter long on a retracement to $46. This was nearly a full risk loss but relative to the other setups was favourable.


Ok so some good setups this week, unfortunately I simply picked the wrong setups this week. Kind of difficult to hit it right when you can only make 3 trades a week with a small bankroll. Statistically my setups looked like this assuming each position was ~$5000 with risk measured accordingly.

Assuming slippage, partial fills and early/late exits (-30%) a more realistic profit figure would be $2041. With commissions this figure is ~$1970. Decent week as that's just over 7% on a standard day trading account (25k).

Pretty cruisy day for the paper account today. Wasn't trading until late in the day but solid either way;


Not sure where this market is going at the moment. Will evaluate it for next week and adjust my entry criteria and see how that affects my bottom line.

Is this market taking the p155 or what? Just entered another trade on yet another screwed up limit order that meant I shorted DRI at a support level ($34) instead of where I wanted to (<$32.90). When was the last time we didn't gap? Basically I'm going to blow out my account by setting ANY limit orders. I've been in this trade for 3 minutes and it's already my biggest loser this year.

I'm going to pull the plug on my account until I have over $100,000.

Peeved off update:


This is on my paper account when fills are more or less instant regardless of availability. How the hell did I get filled for 200 at open in my live account?

PS - Yes.. DRI is making new highs.

16:20 GMT
Yawn yawn.. Trading is the easiest thing in the World when you have clout lol.. 14:3 wins against losses in 60 minutes. I've had one winner in 6 in real life the past 2 weeks.


Also going to trade long in DRI on a 123 here.

Update 17:00 GMT
Stocks finally showing parity with the indices. I'll post a chart later on why this rally today was a load of bollocks.


I am very much aware of the concept of relative strength, but this is ridiculous. The whole market was like DRI today, totally overdone. The rally wasn't even big in the indices today, 100% predictable almost. But stocks.. come on!