[WEEKEND TA]
Bit of a wrap up here on what I thought was going to happen last week. LNC was probably the biggest mover on the list - I was bullish into Monday morning but the gap down meant no order was on here so I won't cover the chart.
RTN Raytheon
I was bullish on RTN too, and said I would enter long on a retracement back to the gap area from $37.75-$38.25. We got an entry and we still have our position, however we are dead crossed on the short term MAs with the 200EMA coming up nicely underneath. Still bullish here above $38 - a pretty sound short term short trade is on the cards under that level for me.
BNI Burlingon N Santa Fe
Looking good here too, very nice bull flag out of the long term resistance trendline. Entry criteria here was a break above $63 or a pullback to the $60 region. We got the $60 entry first. The initial target was $65 which was hit on Tuesday. Nice trade and looking for continuation with $65 as support.
DY Dycom Industries
Entry here was a retest of the $5.30 region on a 123 with MA support. This setup was signalled on Monday with a nice candlestick formation off the 200EMA. The measured move for the ascending triangle was $6.75 which was hit on the button. This area looks congested here given it is also at the ascending channel resistance lines with negative divergence on the indicators. I am looking at $6.00 as a new support level. This has already been tested with a wick down so I'm not sure if this will hold next week.
HD Home Depot
Trade signalled here too, although it was a dangerous one. The short criteria was below $52 which came straight off the bat on Monday morning. at best this move was only worth $0.75 and either you would have sold out at the short term double bottom on Tuesday morning, or at the same level on Wednesday. If not there, you'd have been stopped. A re-entry on the gap up on Thursday would have been good enough yet again for only $0.75 as the $54 target was hit. With all these varibles (3:1 in favour of system) I can only put this in as a small profit trade for record purposes.
FCX Freeport Mcmoran
Another mixed entry bag with FCX, according to my setups we would have had 2 trades here. First was a short at open on Monday at open ($40) which you would have carried probably until the double bottom/bullish engulfing at $37 for 3 points. The other was a scale long over $39 with $43 as the target (also hit) for another 4 points. Nice trades!
DE Deere & Co
I was very bearish on DE, entry was triggered at the open on Monday at $33.90. I was looking for $30 but the exit would have been taken at a double bottom at the 200EMA at the open on Wednesday for approx $1.50. I was not looking for any long position here and DE actually broke out long this week which was surprising.
EXC Exelon Corp
I was very very bearish on EXC and was caught out on the trade here. I shorted at open on Monday and at best had $70 in the kitty. I kept holding as there was no real exit reason until $46. I closed a little before that on strength and this rippsed to $48.80. I am now looking to enter long on a retracement to $46. This was nearly a full risk loss but relative to the other setups was favourable.
Ok so some good setups this week, unfortunately I simply picked the wrong setups this week. Kind of difficult to hit it right when you can only make 3 trades a week with a small bankroll. Statistically my setups looked like this assuming each position was ~$5000 with risk measured accordingly.
Assuming slippage, partial fills and early/late exits (-30%) a more realistic profit figure would be $2041. With commissions this figure is ~$1970. Decent week as that's just over 7% on a standard day trading account (25k).
RTN Raytheon
I was bullish on RTN too, and said I would enter long on a retracement back to the gap area from $37.75-$38.25. We got an entry and we still have our position, however we are dead crossed on the short term MAs with the 200EMA coming up nicely underneath. Still bullish here above $38 - a pretty sound short term short trade is on the cards under that level for me.
BNI Burlingon N Santa Fe
Looking good here too, very nice bull flag out of the long term resistance trendline. Entry criteria here was a break above $63 or a pullback to the $60 region. We got the $60 entry first. The initial target was $65 which was hit on Tuesday. Nice trade and looking for continuation with $65 as support.
DY Dycom Industries
Entry here was a retest of the $5.30 region on a 123 with MA support. This setup was signalled on Monday with a nice candlestick formation off the 200EMA. The measured move for the ascending triangle was $6.75 which was hit on the button. This area looks congested here given it is also at the ascending channel resistance lines with negative divergence on the indicators. I am looking at $6.00 as a new support level. This has already been tested with a wick down so I'm not sure if this will hold next week.
HD Home Depot
Trade signalled here too, although it was a dangerous one. The short criteria was below $52 which came straight off the bat on Monday morning. at best this move was only worth $0.75 and either you would have sold out at the short term double bottom on Tuesday morning, or at the same level on Wednesday. If not there, you'd have been stopped. A re-entry on the gap up on Thursday would have been good enough yet again for only $0.75 as the $54 target was hit. With all these varibles (3:1 in favour of system) I can only put this in as a small profit trade for record purposes.
FCX Freeport Mcmoran
Another mixed entry bag with FCX, according to my setups we would have had 2 trades here. First was a short at open on Monday at open ($40) which you would have carried probably until the double bottom/bullish engulfing at $37 for 3 points. The other was a scale long over $39 with $43 as the target (also hit) for another 4 points. Nice trades!
DE Deere & Co
I was very bearish on DE, entry was triggered at the open on Monday at $33.90. I was looking for $30 but the exit would have been taken at a double bottom at the 200EMA at the open on Wednesday for approx $1.50. I was not looking for any long position here and DE actually broke out long this week which was surprising.
EXC Exelon Corp
I was very very bearish on EXC and was caught out on the trade here. I shorted at open on Monday and at best had $70 in the kitty. I kept holding as there was no real exit reason until $46. I closed a little before that on strength and this rippsed to $48.80. I am now looking to enter long on a retracement to $46. This was nearly a full risk loss but relative to the other setups was favourable.
Ok so some good setups this week, unfortunately I simply picked the wrong setups this week. Kind of difficult to hit it right when you can only make 3 trades a week with a small bankroll. Statistically my setups looked like this assuming each position was ~$5000 with risk measured accordingly.
Assuming slippage, partial fills and early/late exits (-30%) a more realistic profit figure would be $2041. With commissions this figure is ~$1970. Decent week as that's just over 7% on a standard day trading account (25k).
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