The Student Loan Ranger

This took a long, long time to compile this week so let's do this..

Big post this week. Click the tickers to get the charts from last week that continue

Stocks on a continuation from last weeks post at here

AMB
Entry long at $18 with stops at $17.75. Next support level for me is $16.50, then $14.85-$15. My bias is long. Longer term a failure of $14.85 represents a good short entry with an initial target of $12 with potential for $11.

BHI
Looking for BHI to break above $31 and retest that as support for a long entry with stops at $31.80. Target range is $32.50-$34. Major overhead at $34.50 wth next support level at $30 then $28. Will trade the prices and remain neutral here.

EWZ
Entry price at $43.35 with stops at $42.75 meaning this is one for a smaller position size than normal. A failure of $43 sees next support at $41. A failure of $41 would make me very bearish with targets at $38 and $36.

HCP
Looking for HCP to retest the support line around $20 for a long with about a $0.30 stop. Measured move from this breakout is $23.25. Has a support trendline and the 200EMA on the 30 min too. Would look to take another long at the next key level at $16.50, a failure of this and I'm looking at $15 to cover.

MRVL
Approaching overhead now, has nice support horizontally and with the 200EMA on the daily. Have moved the stop to $10.05 and will consider scaling in more here. Really not looking to short this one at the moment.

AAPL
Remains short from last week at $120 with stops at $121 and target at $115. Will move a break-even stop at $119 and then trail a $1 stop from there as this could pop.

JCP
Would really like to scale in long on a retest of $22.50 as support. Big gap on nice volume and at the 200EMA means this is a choppy trade until then for me. Use a $0.75 stop here after being caught out on last weeks long. Looking for $27.50.

XLK
Stop moved to break-even at $16.25 for half with remainder at $15.90 with a target at the 200EMA and overhead resistance. Would like to add to the position at $16 if the action looks bullish.

GYMB
Descriptive signal triggered at close on Thursday, full analysis covered this week so scroll down.

New additions:

Canadian Solar CSIQ
Channel play in what is essentially a bear flag setup in the long term. For the swing setup the key level is $7.50. We have bull flagged for the past few days up at resistance with some good if not spectacular buying pressure. Oversold on the daily indicators here.

Looking closer on the 60 minute there is some good support in the $6-$6.25 region, however we are looking at forming a descending triangle here is this pennant/flag doesn't quite work out. The good thing is that this pullback has been on minimal and declining volume.

Due to the nature of this setup, a trader will have to be very quick at making up their mind whether to go short or long. The short term tradable range is $1.25 in a stock under $10 which is quite substantial.

I have used the daily chart instead of the 60 day as it shows the setup a little more clearly.

Long;
$6.50 with stops at $6.20 with an initial target of $10-$11. At $7 I would sell 1/4 and move the remainder of the position to break-even.

A breakout of $7.50 provided the volume looks good. Stops at $7.30 with initial target at $9.50. I would look to manage this trade in a manner that really prevents drawdown, potentially selling 1/4 at $8, $8.5 and then $9 with a remainder stop trailed by $0.50.

In the real longer term, an entry at $3 is sound but unlikely. The measured move from the channel and double bottom is at $11 (where the 200EMA is on the daily)

Short;
Breakdown of $6.50 with target of $5. Scale out 1/4 at $5.50 and move the stop to $6.00 and see out the rest of the trade as per this weeks 30% 'drawdown from high' rule.

The long setup here represents the best risk reward ratio, in your favour by about 12:1

Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK
Playing this as a 123 setup with a support price of $60. I am looking for this to get to about $65 before retracement based on the last gap fill channel move at $55. There is scope here for $70 but I would really like this to pullback first.

This is a relatively straight forward setup, and again I include the daily instead of the 60 day. Good divergence shown here.

Long;
$60 with stop at $59.75. Initial target at $68 with a view for $70 (1/2 at $68 - $0.50 trailed stop).

Short;
I am not looking at a short in DECK until the price has dropped below $50.

Fossil Inc FOSL
Very busy chart but bear with me. The dashed blue lines act both as support and resistance that aren't horizontal. I see these every now and again but few work as well as they are here. I am bullish here on FOSL so use the lower line in the trade. Daily chart first, also included the 60min for your pleasure.

This has had a great move lately, however the volume has not been superb. Nice breakout from $17.50 but with the 200EMA right above it on the daily, I have to expect a pullback to re-test the support range. The short term triangle is a pennant in the medium term. Continuation on the horizon.

Short term ascending triangle measured move is $19.50 and that is my initial target. Second target is the measured channel move at $20.50. I have two concerns here first is the lack of volume in the breakout, second is the formation of a bear flag with negative divergence on the macd. Those factors are what makes this a great two way setup. I expect this to pullback to $17.50 which provides the first entry.

Long;
At $17.50 with stops at $17.20 with initial target at $19.50 (1/2 here) to $20.50 for remainder. Stop is trailed $0.50 here with the 30% max profit drawdown stop applying here as with the rest of the watchlist.

Short;
I am hesitant to enter short given the amount of bullish continuation signals here. I would really only look to short at $15.50 to $14. Giving up $14 more or less signals a strong reversal with targets at $11.50.

I am short term bearish medium term bullish.

Jetblue Airways JBLU
I think there could be a few watching this one next week. JBLU really in no mans land at the moment, and I feel this could be a great trade both ways this week.

Strong overhead at $4.50 is now support. The trend is definitely up after a micro head and shoulders, and there is also an ascending triangle at work. Full 200EMA support on the 60 day too.

However, there is some strong resistance coming up. Notably the 200EMA on the daily, horizontal at $5.25 and a resistive trendine also at $5.25 at the moment. The amount of overhead increases at $6.25.

I am anticipating a slight drift upwards before a pullback to $4.50. The ascending triangle measured move is at $6, the channel measured move is $5.50. I feel that the pullback to $4.50 is backed up with negative divergence in both indicators, and the price is extended from the moving averages.

Long;
Long at $4.50 with stops at $4.25 with initial targets at $5.25-50, and then $6.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting this at $4.10 downwards to $3.50 with stops at $4.25

This trade will be re-evaluated should JBLU close above the following levels; $5.25, $6.25.

The Gymboree Corp GYMB
I am just gagging to short this. Well, I already have as the alert was triggered right at the close on Thursday. 25% jump, closed right at the resistance level which goes back a few years. Also at the 200EMA on the daily. Yes there is huge volume on that move, but check the volume on the previous drop. People re-adjusting their portfolio and getting carried away maybe? Short covering gone mad? It's up 100% in the past month. This smells like war food Sunday - overcooked.

Long;
The only long here is a retest of $27.50 after GYMB has been as high as $30, with a target of $35. I am not at all interested in a long this week.

Short;
Right now or from $27.30-60. Stop at $28 - this is slightly lax I expect some buyer spill-over from last week into Monday. Initial target at $24 for 1/2 with the remainder at a falling window gap close at $22.50.

Westamerica Bancorporation WABC
Somebody needs to explain the WABC business model to me because I straight up don't understand the chart. If you exclude the crazy price action from September 19th last year, WABC is only down 23% from last years highs.

If you compare that to the other regional banks of a similar market cap you can see good relative strength; CYN -44% BOH-46% ZION -75% GBCI -60%. Looks like a good deal should the rest of the market re-test the bottoms of the year. Generally all this sector does is consolidate, albeit in a large range.

We've broken out from the overhead at $49 off an ascending triangle that has a measured move of $55.50. This chart looks very boring, but that's ok, trading isn't always an adrenalin rush. The only thing I'm looking at is $49, and whether or not this will pullback to there. Watch out for $55.50 before the pullback as that could provide a micro-short.

Long;
Retest of $49.25 with stops at $48.65 (small size because of exposure). With targets partially at $54 (1/4) with stop moved to $52.50 and trailed a buck up to $55.50 - at that point there will be potential for $60 on a measured move so I'll keep my analysis updated for that.

Short;
A quick trader will spot the rally is ending by checking histogram divergence and bearish candlestick formations. I predict this could be at about $54 but will let you know. A scalpers trade.

Realistically not looking to short WABC medium-long term until $44 is a goner.

Brocade Communications BRCD
Busy chart. V bottom reversal, bear flag, pennant and nice breakout above resistance at $4. Closed above and successfully retested the 200EMA as support with a nice looking doji in good volume. Measured move from channel is $5 with longer term measured move at $6 (also a resistance point).

More of a longer term trade, I would be looking to enter long here at two levels, and due to that it required good risk management to cope with the exposure. The only overhead that I spy with my little eye is a gap fill at about $5.20. Apart from that we are rosy until long term overhead at $6.

I like the bullishness of this chart, and I'm keen to enter on a pullback.

Long;
Remember risk management is vital in this trade. 1/4 at $4.50 with a view to get more at $4.25 and $4, really depends on the type of trader you are. Realistically I would like to see $5 before we pullback and ideally I am looking to enter at the 200EMA or $4.25 with stops at $3.80. Partial target at $5, seen out to $6 with very aggressive management after $4.95. This setup represents the absolute minimum risk reward setup I like to trade at 3:1

Short;
I would look to short this at $6 with a stop at $6.25, working with a 4:1 ratio with targets first at $5, and then around $4.50.

A breakdown of $4 will offer a scalper a $0.50 trade, but I would not personally trade this given my account rules.

Smithfield Foods SFD
A stock that looks like it follows its measured moves pretty well. A strange key level in $11.30 here, but one that was breached on Thursday either way. Excellent double bottom - check the positive divergence on the macd and increased buying pressure. Long term measured move from that is $25, but I'm focusing on a smaller time scale this week.

In my mind the support levels are $11.30, $10.50 and $10 and I remain bullish until $10 is given up on volume. The volume has been thin lately, so we need a boost early next week or we'll pull back to these levels - fine enough if we want to go long. An entry without this level of pullback could be difficult.

Short term overhead at $12.50 and $13 with longer term resistance range at $15-$17.50. The 200EMA and resistive trendline are in the vicinity, which add weight to the pullback claim.

Long;
Pullback to $11.30 as a water tester with 1/4, however I am more likely to advise $10.50 as the entry point with stops at $9.85. Target initial at $12.50, with a view to either closing or tightening stops at $13 or the 200EMA.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting SFD at $12.50 with a $0.25 ONLY IF the rise if on low volume and the 200EMA is right there. I would look for bearish candlestick action too, and if possible, more negative divergence on the macd histogram.

Yingli Green Energy YGE
I can only assume these guys are Chinese with a name like that, and it's good to spread the exposure. I quite like this chart, but nearly didn't include it this week.

We are testing $7.50 for the 4th time as resistance after 2 higher lows in what most would assume is an ascending triangle. I don't like the ascension here and I'm viewing this more as a channel trade or a 123. Strong resistive trendline and 200EMA await overhead, apart from that there is minimal horizontal until $12.50. Volume has been strong on the latest rally

I will be watching the candlesticks here as we look extended, and we are right between strong overhead and support, meaning any potential move could be strong. Ideally I would like to see a move to the 200EMA and then a pullback to $7.50.

Long;
At a retest of $7.50 after a breakout providing the chart shows strength (pullback on lower volume) for an entry long with stops at $7.20. Initial target at $9.50. Approach this entry with caution, as I would like the price to test the 200EMA before the pullback. The other important factor here is the gap at $9.12-36.

Second entry if you miss that, and one that represents a more favourable risk reward ratio is an entry off short term support at $6.25 with stops at $6.13

Short;
I would be comfortable with a short at $12 downwards with a stop at $12.25.

Short two for me is a breakdown of $6 with a target at $4.75 and a $0.25 stop.


Descriptive trades (no chart needed, check the dailies or 60d 60m):

Ak Steel AKS- short at $10, tight stop, psychological number, enter long on retest as support if breakout
Alpha Natural Resources ANR - trade channel at $15-$21.50 with short term support at $17
Temple-Inland TIN - Long at $6.25 as a re-test after a breakout, stop at $5.95. Short below $4.75

Stocks that didn't make the final cut this week: EWH JNY FO