The Student Loan Ranger

OK I brought it back.

These are what I'll be watching in the week ahead so far. Variety of setups and a variety of timescales. Quite a lot of stocks getting near important areas on their daily charts, the most significant stock at this point imo is AAPL. Absolute text book 123 short at around $120 next week. A rally over this will be pretty big for the markets.

Week ahead:
WY, CHK, BHI, EWZ, HCP & AMB

Longer term:
CSCO, MRVL, JCP, AAPL, UNG & XLK

Charts and views to follow, probably on Sunday. Here's a sneak peak so far;

Sunday update:
Let's roll.

Here are my setups for this week, with some longer ones to follow. There is one stock that straddles the two, and that's AAPL. Just to note I am hesitant to state whether or not I am bullish or bearish this week. I will check the markets on Monday pre open and see what the story is. I am still slightly bearish if anything, as I don't believe this rally is the bottom. There are also some big stocks coming up to major resistance levels - and the indices.. well I'll be convinced once $SPX makes it over, and closes above 880.

AMB Amb Property Corp.
Working off the 30d/30m here, with price levels checked for the daily. What I'm seeing here is a nice run to a recent overhead at $18 on good consistent buying pressure. There has been a nice ascending triangle, the target of which was passed on Fridays trading. The line in the sand for me is the $14.75 region where we gapped up over the support level. There is not much resistance until $25.

I am short term bearish, medium term bullish with no long term opinion on AMB.


My entry here is either long at $18 after it has broken above and pulled back - or something in the region of $15. We are overcooked on the indicators for me, however the divergences are positive. I believe by the time we pullback to $15 we'll have 200EMA support giving a low risk high reward entry of approx 9.25:1

Long:

1. At $14.75-$15 with stops at $14. T1 (partial) at $18 (stop to $16), T2 $22+ (trail stop by $1)
2. At $18 after a move upwards above given that there is MA support, good divergence and volume. Stops at $17.75 with targets at $22 (same rules as before).

Short:

1. Potential scalp at open from $18-$15 (I won't trade this)
2. Breakdown of $14.50 with targets around $12 (with $14.85 stop)
   

I would also like to state that the MACD signal line on the 60d/60m chart is providing the trendline for the move in AMB. A failure of this trendline, with retest, would result in me becoming bearish and looking to take a short position as per;


CHK Chesapeake Energy
Quite a standard setup here. Lots of overhead in the $20 region but we are looking up on the 60d/60m. Inverse H&S (just spotted) gives a highly optimistic target of $26, but I see short term resistance in the $21.75 region. If we can get a nice move above $20 I will look to enter on the retest. CHK could really pop in the next week or two given the chance. The only short I am looking to take here is a breakdown of $16.50 down to $13.75.


CHK shows promise on the daily chart too. On entry criteria the RRR (risk reward ratio from now on) is 15:1.

I am short term bearish, medium term bullish, long term bullish on CHK.

Long (favourable):

1. At retest of $20 after a breakout above there. Would really look for this to close above $20 as part of the entry criteria. Stops at $19.75. T1 (partial) at $21.75 with stops moved to $21. T2 at $25/200EMA.
   

Short:

1. Breakdown of $16.50
   

CHK shows good relative strength for the sector, and I would advise watching the crude oil futures, RIG, SLB, HAL & OXY here. Also OIL XLE DIG. I am definitely bullish here above $20.#

BHI Baker Hughes Inc
The simplest chart and entry criteria of this weeks watchlist. The key level here is $31. The question is this; Will BHI hold the 123 with all EMA support (30d/30m) and boost it to $33.50?


Long (favourable):

1. From $31-$31.25 with stops at $30.85. T1 (partial) at gap close of $32.50 with stops moved to $31.75. T2 $33-$33.50 with pretty tight stops from $32.50 upwards.
2. A break above $34 retested as support for the first time with stops at $33.50.

Short:

1. Scalpable short under $31 to $30.
2. Swing short on breakdown of $29.75 to $27.50

I am short term bullish, medium term bullish with no long term opinion on BHI.

RRR approx 6:1

EWZ Ishare MSCI Brazil ETF thing
Pivotal level for EWZ this week. Been looking into these funds at the moment, and some fundamental research has suggested that Brazil is in the top 3 economies best placed to recover from the recession. For a longer term play this is promising, for the short term, this is also tradable.

At the moment we are between support and resistance levels. Short term support has been established on a 123 with the price at $41. Medium term resistance on my charts is circa $42.25 with the 200EMA also pressing.

The setup is fairly straight forward for entry...


Long (favourable):

1. A retracement to $41 offers a supreme setup. Long at $41 with stops at $40.80. T1 (partial) at $43 with stops to $42. T2 at $46.50 with stops trailed without aggression. Watch out for the 200EMA on this one too.
2. After a breakout above $43, the retracement to that level as support offers entry 2. Stops at $42.75 with targets at $45+$47 with stops and trailing applied as above.

Short:

1. I would short EWZ only at a breakdown of $40 provided there is high volume on the pullback and no moving average support featuring correct divergence on the indicators. This is a high risk short in my opinion.

I am bullish on EWZ across all timeframes. I would like to see this show relative strength relative to the US indices as well as the other emerging market funds. RRR setup is a ridiculous 20:1 average meaning if $41 is on the table, there are absolutely no excuses for not trading this one!

Others.
I was going to include these charts and descriptions but I'm not convinced on their transparency for the week ahead.

First off is WY Weyerhaeuser

I'm looking for a long on a close above $33, or on a pullback to the $30 region. These setups are risky given the recent gap activity and it's now in a congested resistance zone. I am short term bearish, medium bullish, long term no opinion.

I was also going to cover HCP Hcp Inc, however the setup is purely a consolidation trade. Current resistance $20.10, current support $17. Short and long in this range, or short and long on a breakout of this range. Easy trades that don't warrant the bandwidth and time on a chart.

Longer term setups

MRVL Marvel Technology Group
Tremendous chart here in my opinion. Nice ascending channel after a trend establishing inverse head and shoulders. Trading above all moving averages and just closed above $10 - an important psychological value in trading. Nice compact consolidation range in the lead up to Wednesdays engulfing candle too. Progressive volume is another strong factor in favour of MRVL. Measured moves here are at $10.50 so more room to run. We are at horizontal resistance and channel resistance based on Fridays close so I anticipate a pullback.


There are a few setups here, the best one is an entry long at $8.30 - however I don't think we'll catch that as the 123 was already hit on March 17th. A strong close above $10 would be my second favourite entry here, and there is also potential at $9.75. If we can get over $11, then I don't see anything until $13, $14 and $16 so there are a variety of trades here both short and longer term.

I am bullish on MRVL but a drop below $8 would make me highly bearish here.

AAPL Apple Inc
This is the "big one" this week. AAPL is approaching major, major overhead on the daily (going back to 2007). It had a nice 123 breakout with support at $103 and $110 at the moment. I don't often watch tech stocks, something I will change here.

The volume lately has been strong, but not remarkable. Other tech stocks have been firing up lately, most notably RIMM and AMZN. The tech spyder is also looking strong, but shows signs of weakening soon based on resistance areas (covered later)


An on fire AAPL will no doubt boost the rest of the market, and I believe everyone and their Grandma will be watching it this week. The key price I'm looking at is $120. It's the first retest of a 123 setup (generally the strongest) and we are oversold everywhere. The MACD is trending quite nicely however, and we have had strong candle stick formations out of that bull flag last week.

I believe we will see $120 this week, which is why this straddles both long and short term setups. A scale in short at $120 is what I have on the cards. However given the nature of the beast, my stop will be loosened (circa $125) giving me a low, but still favourable (3:1), risk reward setup. I am not convinced we will see <$105 anytime soon.

JCP Penney J C Co
Bit of retail here. Very nice chart here, another that I think will show up on other peoples' scans this week. Medium term overhead has been around $22.50 lately. This closed at $23.06 on Friday after 3 strong days of volume out of a bull flag setup. There is a trend reversing double bottom in play, and inverse head and shoulders, a cup and handle and rounded bottom. I am very bullish on JCP in the short-medium, but expect some pullback from the 200EMA soon.


The measured moves from the patterns range from $30.17-$33.48. I think we will see the action here this week too. I would like to enter long on a pullback to $22.60 with stops at $21.50. I am hesitant to short here given the amount of bullish reversal and continuation patterns, and I see more upside than downside here. The 200EMA and $27.50 are my short term targets, longer term I'm looking for the measured move range as indicated by the purple action on the chart.

XLK Technology SPDR
Not much of a tech or sector player, but XLK is looking OK and coincides well with AAPLs potential move. I put the big jump down to strong results in the tech sector lately with lots of money moving there since mid January.


We are approaching a resistive trendline, the 200EMA and some horizontal all in the same region. I would like to see a pennant form for an entry, but ideally I'm looking for a little jump, a pullback to $16.25 and then a blast off to around $18. Nice looking chart. Not looking to go short here.

UNG US Nat Gas ETF
Have not seen an instrument do this for a long time, even dead cats bounce but not UNG. Lots of attention here too I think on this beaten down ETF. How much longer can this downward momentum last? There has been some short covering/accumulation lately here, and I am looking for some signs of life..


Watch the MACD, volume and 40EMA here on the daily as they will be the first indicators. Current resistances for me are $16, $18, $22.50 and $26. If we start to see these get taken out, go long. Would like to see a double bottom or a 123 above $16 with MA support for a long myself.

Others:
I was going to cover Cisco (CSCO). Currently at the 200EMA with a gap up over support at $18. This could rock or implode here.

Gap (GPS) looks good on a pullback to $15.40 for a long. In the same sector we have a wild chart on Gymboree (GYMB) approaching a gap close area. Would like to eventually short it at $27.50.