The Student Loan Ranger

It was going to be a small watchlist this week, focusing mainly once more on the stocks mentioned in last weeks CB. I had 2 or 3 new ones to add before I got to the S section, which has provided 8 good setups that I will have to whittle down.

This week I have started a watchlist rotation scheme, and I will also include a price alert section at the end, where charts aren't really needed. All you really need to know in these situations is either a simple moving average movement or a key price level. It's easy to set these alerts up in prorealtime or whatever else you use.

As for the stocks that maintain their position from last week, assume the same technical analysis from their original CB inclusion, or any new trigger prices mention in the Weekly Roundups. Click for last weeks Crystal Balling and Roundup.

Watchlist rotation

KGF MARS

SIG SCHE TLPR

AFR ENRC DGO FXPO RNVO WPP CBG

Signet (SIG)
Descending wedge and triple bottom here on SIG. I included this because there have been a significant amount of breakdowns on this setup lately, and SIG could do the same. Despite this fact, SIG does some indicators going for it as a long.

In terms of prices and movement, the support of 50p looks relatively strong at the moment. A move down should coincide with the fast line MA (10), on selling volume. The stochastics are oversold and looking up, but we have been here 2 weeks ago and look what happened. Divergence on MACD is encouraging, however I feel a break of 55, and preferably 60p would give an indicator to go long with very tight stops.

Ideally, I would look for a breakout of the wedge before opening a long position and I am bearish on SIG this week.

Southern Cross (SCHE)
A similar setup to SIG, SCHE has just broken a triple bottom as it looks to find support at resistance from late 2006 at about 310p. This is a very clean and simple setup, and I would not consider a long entry on SCHE, I am focusing only on a potential breakdown of 310-300p here, and the downward momentum that comes with it.

Trigger price is sub 310 with a lot of sellers in the picture.

Tullet Prebon (TLPR)
I traded this about a month ago, a good swing trade where I bought the bottom of a descending wedge and sold out at the top of the trend line. It has since dropped back to that wedge support, and despite a big wick down on Friday, it looks poised for another rally (albeit a smaller one).

Look for a closing price above 435 before entry, my short term price target is 460. The selling point will be when the price reaches the 100MA, as this has led to the drops in the past. Short TLPR below 400. The price is a little lower than normal here, as TLPR does tend to wick and that could be misinterpreted as an entry signal.



ALERT Section

• I expect a short term drop on XTA until the 200MA - expect strong moves off this, and check the chart over the past 3 years for this significant MA.

• Strong close of week on RRS, look for continued momentum on breaks of 50MA with targets between 2400-2600.

• Breakout retracement and bull flag break confirmed on Friday on BG. Holding 100MA very well. Long on 1260 to 1400. Short on breakdowns of 1190.

• CNE also holding 100MA very well with another breakout-retracement. Short sub 2900. Breaks of 3250 look good to 3500.

• Trendlines, MAs, and breakouts look good on PMO which nearly made the watchlist proper. 1650 entry with targets at +1750. Short at 1400 down.

• REL on support penetration sub 550.

• SGRO on descending wedge sub 380.

• SVT looking good for a drop to at least 1250 at the moment.

• Big long term head and shoulders on SHB which is currently at a very critical S/R level. Things looking grim over a longer time scale here, needs to breach 375 and is at 2.5 year lows.

• INCH on double bottom, 315 support. Break 10MA first.
  

I'm looking forward to next week, as after Monday I should be done and dusted with college for the year. This should provide me with a good opportunity over the next 2 weeks to see how much I have progressed as a trader and technical analyst over the past 5 months. By rotating my watchlist I should get a better eye for specific stocks and sectors, and also watch my analysis develop fully, rather than trading the start and closing out when I update the watchlist the next week.

I think the core watchlist is pretty solid this week, and the alerts section should also provide some good trading opportunities. From the alerts I like BG., PMO and SHB the best. XTA is probably the best setup for a long I've seen for months, but I don't imagine it will hit the 200MA anytime in the next week.