The Student Loan Ranger

A disgraceful week this week for me. A lot of it was broker problems, but the big loss was because I lost my discipline completely. Anyone familiar with poker will be aware of the term 'tilt', and this is what I suffered from as the week closed out.

An error with my broker who bought FGP stock before it hit the trigger cost me £90. A winning trade in BG. turned sour as I was stopped out for a loss. A from the hip call on EEL lost me a significant amount. I made a good trade on technicals for CHTR, and then a really good momentum trade on SOLA - which .. well.. you know what happened there. Technically, I made 50/50 on my trades, but because of my gay broker that works out now at 1/5 which is pathetic.

The good news is that I am in the process of closing iii, and opening an account with OptionsXpress to trade the American markets. I am weighing up my options in light of the persistant poor dealing from UK brokers, and the amount of manipulation. Not to mention the costs of trading which are astronomical compared to US trading (which is half the price). I've left a post on the daytraderrockstar website asking for some advice so that should be cool to hear back about the bigger scheme of things.

The Round-up

Stellar call on Sunday regarding RBS and the airlines. Very strong performance from RBS, BAY and EZJ.

I mentioned it would be worth keeping tabs on the oil price for British Airways and Easyjet, they ticked up all week to as high as 9%. Friday morning saw a tumble for the airlines, and then an announcement about oil opening up $6 per barrel destroyed the rally as they closed the week nearly flat.

RBS gained 16% at highs before closing down on an up day for the FTSE to close the week up 8.5%. The rest of the banks, although I was bullish, we hammered on Friday with Barclays, HBOS, Lloyds, Alliance Leicester and HSBC all in the red by at least 6.5% each for the day. RBS showed better strength than the pack down 5% for the day.

I made an horrific call on EEL midweek which put me on tilt for the rest of the week. I was peeved that my broker had executed for FGP despite no signal given. My broker also destroyed an excellent SOLA trade by selling for over 6.5% below my stop loss. I good trade was made on CHTR, which was a good technical setup and I was pleased with the outcome.

AFREN (AFR)

Prediction and chart setups:

• "I would consider entry now, but would wait for confirmation at 175 with a stop at 160"
• Bull flag breakout down to bounce off support

What happened:

• AFR gave a buy signal on Monday
• Hit quick double top next day, changed stop loss to south of 167 to cut losses
• Stop loss triggered
• Bit of a bottom forging itself out at the moment

Bad setup from me on AFR. Should have entered last Friday on better indicators. This would have been a small loss, will be interesting to see how this reacts next week. I will not be watching though.

CARPHONE WAREHOUSE (CPW)

Predictions and chart setup:

• "I would enter on a confirmation of a fastline EMA break at 241.5"
• Price target 265
• Likely to be a 2 week holder
• Double bottom

What happened:

• Buy signal triggered via ema break this afternoon at 241 closing at 245
  
• Put a stop in at 235
• Indicators looking good into next week
• Successful analysis so far

MAN GROUP (EMG)

Prediction and chart setups:

• "Entry point bounce off new support at 599 or break to new highs at 641"
  
• Ascending wedge
• Waiting for stock to drop to support after breakout
• Indecisive close to the week last week

What happened:

• EMG hit resistance
• Starting to drop down with bearish indicators
• SP holding at fast line
  
• Should be primed for entry next week
• Probably made this call a little bit too early

This should come good next week, either a bounce off the support around 595 or moves off the fast line ema (probably the former). Made the call a little early here, and this should drift downwards soon. No entry signals here this week.

FIRST GROUP (FGP)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "I would wait for fastline ema break at 531 with targets at 592.5 with stops at 507.5"
  
• Triple bottom support channel

What happened:

• FGP dropped to 507, then made moves north to 540, triggering a buy signal
• Buy signal was a wick day
• Closed down to 520

Bad trade on good indicators here. I covered this because my broker bought it for me after wrecking an order. I was pleased that it bounced off 507 exactly, but wasn't pleased about the buy signal being triggered by a wick. This is something I need to keep an eye on for the future. Bad trade overall here, at least I'm not bitter lol.

KAZAKMYS (KAZ)

Predictions and chart alerts:

• "Enter on gains on Friday, short bear breaks below 1540"
  
• Breakout to highs finding support
• Ascending wedge formation

What happened:

• Ticked up on Fridays gains
• Dropped out short term wedge channel
  
• Dropped to horizontal support range
• Looking for support off 100 day moving average
• Neutral indicators

Had decent hopes for KAZ but nothing good here. Would have entered earlier in the week, but would have probably sold out, let's see what happens on the moving averages and supports next week. Neutral trade.

VT GROUP (VTG)

Predictions and chart setups:

• Profit targets at 690
• Possible resistance break at 705
• Ascending wedge

What happened

• Didn't like resistance area
• We caught our price target of 690
  
• Looking bearish now
  

I said on Thursday or Wednesday it was looking stretched at 681, it hit 694 which was 4p above my price target and then crashed on Friday along with the rest of the market to close at 667. The initial adjusted stop was 660 but I felt that this wasn't going to make the run in a "one-er" so raised on paper for extra protection. This was a good short term trade, and gave return at entry to exit at over 9%. Look for moves of the 100 day ema (purple) next week to see if the wind comes back into the sails.

SIG (SHI)

Predictions and chart setups:

• "Enter on ema break (50 day), short and stops at 688. Target circa 830"
• Double bottom channel

What happened:

• No buy signal
• Sitting at support again
• Entry signals still pending

Every week there's a boring stock, SHI is doing a good job of being the contender this week.

MORGAN CRUCIBLE (MGCR)

Predictions and chart setups:

• Bull moves off 210 range for entries, stops at 205 (also your shorting price)
  
• Wedge breakout finding support
• Short term upward channel bounce
• Early call on undeveloped indicators
  

What happened:

• Price still bang on with the trend line
• Mixed signals
• Not good to trade either side of neutral here
• Signals obvious to see for next week

Bit of trouble with this one. Keeps giving indicators to buy/short then changing. The price is still on the trend line almost perfectly, but I would wait for a move of a few percent before making judegements here.

CIENA CORP (CIEN)

Can't comment here because the market is still open, but sell signal was given yesterday to short, at which point I would place a stop a little bit above the days close. From the sounds of things on the radio it's up today but haven't checked. Either way you're stopped out for about a 4.5% profit in the day.


Bad week for statistics this week, and can't really be bothered calculating because I'm sick with the cold or something again. Gonna hit the hay early tonight. Assume small gains with bad good/bad call ratio and I will work the averages next week.

Watchlist looking OK for next week, but not sure about it because I probably won't be trading again until my iii account is closed I'm i'm live in the US market!

Exciting times ahead.. potentially.