The Student Loan Ranger

Not quite a reprise of Crystal Balling but something in the same mould. Just gonna post a few charts now - gonna upload more and explain what I see happening in the short term later this weekend. Will also be putting up some charts of WMT, BNI, FCX, EXC, DY, DE and AAUK so stay tuned as there is a nice mix of setups both long and short here. Good luck to Scotland against Holland in the footie tonight.

Sunday update:
OK Holland destroyed us, we need Boyd back and the Caldwell goal to stand. Anyway here are the charts, I was going to include the AAUK chart but it's not that great and only needs one piece of advice: Sell it under $8.25 to $7.75 or more.

Let's rock and roll here...
LNC Lincoln National Corp
I am feeling pretty bullish here given the ascending wedge, inverse head and shoulders and strong move to close the gap. $10 also represents a strong psychological number that I expect to hold on the retracement. I do expect a pullback on Monday morning to $10 given the gap has been closed (some peoples targets on a long).

I will be long at $10 off the moving averages and support line with 3 profit targets: $13.25, $14.00 and $15.10

I will exit or short if possible at a failure of the moving averages, support line and medium term trendline currently in the $9 region.


RTN Raytheon Co
Bullish here too, really like this chart. Full support of the moving averages, nice MACD and stochastics and a good level gap.

I will look to enter long on these conditions;

1. Retracement to gap price between $37.75 and $38.25
2. A break of $40
3. A retest of $40 as support after a pullback from the other gap price at $41.
4. Favourable price action at $39

I will look to exit or short on these conditions;

1. Resistance at $41.60
2. Breakdown of gap prices
3. Dead cross on EMAs under $37

BNI Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.
Mixed bag of a chart here. It is currently at the resistance trendline both long term and short term channels and in an awkward trading range between S/R levels. Currently forming a nice bull flag with a pullback on declining volume. Positive divergence in the indicators which is a good sign.

Long;

1. Over $63
2. Retest of $60 as support based on 123
3. Off the 200ema

Short/exit;

1. $65 looks to have some S/R clout
2. Failure of $60 region as support

DY Dycom Industries Inc.
Pretty thinly traded stock here but a decent setup either way. Currently at a resistance level at ~$6.10. Has established some support in the $5.30 area which I will use as my entry. I currently expect a pullback as we are oversold on both indicators. Volume has been quite good the past 2 days which also leads me to think there may be profit taking soon.

Long;

1. Retest of $6.10 as support
2. Pullback to $5.30 for optimum setup (123 with MA support)
   

Short/Exit;

1. $6.75 is the measured move for the ascending triangle and 123 setup.
2. Failure of $6.00 with dead cross on 20/50 EMAs

WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Very easy setup here. A couple of 123s into the current range of $52.25-$53. This setup needs minimal explanation.

Long;

1. Scale in long at $52.55
2. Long over $53
3. Long on retest of $53 as support

Exit;

1. Measured move at $54
2. Failure of $52
3. Potential to scale in short at $53 depending on market conditions if you are a scalper

FCX Freeport-Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc
Gold futures related trade here on quite a decent setup. Nice strong base formed in January with a current support level of $31 in the medium term and $38 in the short term. I am however bearish on FCX right now, given it's proximity to the 200EMA on the daily chart and ascending wedge on the hourly.

Couple of gaps to look out for here too, short term at $41 and $39. We are looking negative on the indicators, including volume for me.

Long;

1. Scale in long at $39
2. Long on break and retest of $43
3. Long term trade entry at $31, not for a while though
   

Short/Exit (favourable);

1. Breakdown of $41
2. Breakdown of support line on ascending wedge
3. Failure of 50EMA

DE Deere & Co
Also looking bearish on the daily chart at DE. On the hourly I basically see another ascending wedge that is the flag of a bear flag. We are currently at the long term resistance trendline with negatively diverging indicators and a rise on declining volume. We have also just filled the gap and I expect a sell off from here.

Long;

1. I am not looking to take a long position in DE at any point at the moment

Short (favourable)

1. $36 if you can get it based on gap closing double top at all resistance levels
2. Failure of $34
3. Failure of short term support line
4. Looking first for $30 (double top measure) then $29 (solid base here)

A short at $36 in DE represents the best setup this week. With stops at $36.20 it is essentially a 30:1 risk:reward setup in your favour. You cannot refuse these trades.


I could not be any more bearish on EXC right now. Bear flag setup into a strong resistance area with the 200EMA pressing down hard. Extreme negative divergence, rise on declining volume with oversold stochastics. I am very confident that this will fail this week, but I must be prepared to change my outlook should the market tell me otherwise.

Long;

1. The only long I will take is a support of $46 after a breakout with 200EMA support on good volume.

Short;

1. Right now.
2. Anywhere above $45.75
3. Looking for <$43

Very confident this will fail.




Should be a good week for trading. I will be experimenting with pivot points this week and will report next weekend with the results as it is something I would like to incorporate into my arsenal.