The Student Loan Ranger

Will be updating the blog layout tonight so apologies if it looks screwed up. Work in progress to make blogging a little easier.

Update:
I have fully migrated the blog, including old posts to the new address at thestudentloanranger.wordpress.com

It's been a good first year with Googles Blogger service but I feel it's time to move on. Update your bookmarks and come have a look.

TSLR

I am on a momumental and unparalleled run of bad luck in my personal life at the moment; even wrecking a brand new white t-shirt 30minutes after I bought it by some choc milk basically exploding all over it - and I buy choc milk and wear white t-shirts all the time - so wtf!? This also means that I can't really clean it because it's a certainty that either it will shrink and be useless, the washing machine will ruin it (as it does everything else) or I won't make it on time to hang it out (upside down, from the bottom) and the shoulders will be stretched as wide as the Grand Canyon.

The list just keeps getting bigger, and I can only imagine that it's getting so big because I am noticing every tiny thing that's going wrong at the moment. So I've bought some EuroMillions tickets for tonights £108million draw, and I expect a sudden and severe change in my luck soon. The probability is that I win and get mugged by a bunch of kids who claim the prize, or the government will introduce a 99.999% tax on lottery winnings the day I claim.

Needless to say with this much terrible luck I am not trading at the moment. If I were I'd still be long UNG on a perfect breakout. I am amazed to see the amount of people on StockTwits who responded to this technical move, rather than anticipate it. Not to be a horn blower but April 4th people;


I would also be keen on DRYS on a pullback to $7.50, yet again with DRYS, watch for the 20ema on the daily with consecutive lower volume days on the decline;


And LDK should it drop go $8.80-$9 on consecutive lower volume days than Thursday, watch the 20/50 on the daily;


Update later;
The run continues. Went for a work out and DRYS bounced off the 20EMA by nearly 50 cents in 5 minutes.

UNG looking really good here. The next level I am looking for is a close above $15 and also like I said the trend is most responsive to the 40EMA, and this is right where UNG is as I write.


Also this rally is just relentless. However it seems clear that some news about the stress test results was leaked today given the action is stocks like BAC:


Spent a little while checking out StockTwits service today, looks good - lots of good ideas but it's so clear that most day traders are sticking with BAC C FAS FAZ SKF SPY SDS and not much else. Going to test the portfolio filter based on my watchlist to see what other people think of my ideas (not that anyone elses opinion matters when you're a trader of course!).

A little too late for a watchlist this week but here are the stocks I'm watching for the next few days. No charts this week as I've got too much happening in my out-of-trading life:

AA - Nice breakout still in an ascending channel and closure over $10

APA - A longer term one for the watchlist, strong day on Monday and it closed first at resistance and second at the 200EMA on the daily. Would love to take a long if this pullsback to $70.

XLY - The trend that I've been following the past 2 weeks remains intact and once more is at the resistance line.

DOV - Still watching for a breakout from last weeks watchlist on DOV at $32.50 and $29.50

DRYS - Still watching from last week as DRYS looks to close a gap at $11.50. Dream trade on a pullback to $7.50 but I'm not sure we'll see it in this cycle.

LDK - Has closed the gap and closed above a resistance point at $9. Waiting for a pullback to the 20 and 50 on the daily chart for entry.

XLB - Beginning to creep out of a consolidation range between $13 and $14.

UNG - Been watching this for ages, double bottom is in place so I'm looking for a movement out of the resistive trendline and over the 40ema here. A retest of $14 would be a strong entry. OK I'll show a chart here, zoomed in 60min to show the bottoming formation;

Very choppy week for me, lots of fake entries in the watchlist too - The money was made in the excellent DRYS and IP trades, big money with small size on great risk reward setups. Gotta catch these!

AirTran Holdings AAI
Terrible action this week and a stop shortly after entering long at $7. Poor to trade.

International Paper IP
Great trade, very predictable considering the strong breakout and a low volume test of such a good number like $10. This trade excelled and it gapped up above the first target level.



Juniper Networks JNPR
Chopped up here too as the first short criteria triggered. Like AAI you'd have been in the profit quick, but since it didn't get running and didn't even get near the targets, you'd have had a small loser on your hands again. I like how JNPR is being supported by the former resistance trendline as it forms a small continuation triangle. A breakout to new highs over $23 still looks good to me.


Dover DOV
I thought earlier this week that DOV triggered the stop at $29.50, but it didn't get there. Busy week and not much attention spent I think. Triggered the long setup number 2 with a scale in at $30. The target was first $32.50, the price was as high as $30.32 so if it was a scale in for half then that's a scale out for half and still holding with a stop still at $29.50, Which I would now move to breakeven at $30. $32.50 for the breakout and $29.50 for the breakdown still remain the key levels.



Prosultra O&G ETF DIG
We are in DIG from Wednesday and it remains a hold despite the choppyness. Needs to remain above $25 in what I think will be a messy week next week.


Dryships DRYS
Both entry criteria were hit this week for DRYS which was a really great setup. The 50EMA bounce off the consolidation lows at $6 was a peach of an entry, and the breakout above $7.25 was also strong (half at each for profit calc). Has not hit the target at $9.50, and I am moving the stop to $8 here.
A pullback to $7.50 would be nice here, especially considering the amount of buyers in the past 2 days.

Adobe ADBE
The cheapness of my entry and risk reward strategies meant that I was 22 cents off catching a wonderful trade in ADBE this week. Abode didn't trigger, and closed the week at triple trendline resistance and on the end of a fully formed ascending (bear) wedge. Still a nice chart and would like a pullback to $25 still.


Energizer ENR
In at ENR at $58, don't like the action here so moved stop to $58.25 expecting a drop.

From the price level list:

• RIG has closed above $69 and my sentiment is bullish only if we can break the resistive trendline on the daily chart from Jan 6th-Friday.
• 36 cents too cheap on the $20 retest on IR which had highs just shy of $23.
• No pullback on EBAY which maintains it's consolidation range of $16-$17 and at the 200EMA on the daily.
• A breakout on EWU and we are long at $11.55, a retest of $11.50-.75 looks like a good long considering the amount of buyers on the breakout.

• MSFT on the $20 retest still holding with stops at $19.75 looking for $22. Strong forces at work as it's pinned between the 200 and 20EMAs on the daily with significant wicking off both.

• A stop out on SOHU as it dropped $2 for the stop and then closed the week at $8 higher.

Results for the week:


Statistically you have to be happy with this, 70% winners and total actual risk not much greater than 2 positions worth. However there are still a lot of holders, so depending on where DRYS opens up the profit could be much lower. Yet again there is some pedigree in the list from this week which boosted the laggards (IP and DRYS). Without those two trades then the profit would be at $350 or so, which is still good enough for me.

For next weeks watchlist I'm looking to focus on stocks at key psychological levels - $10 & $20. There have been several on the watchlists at these levels for the past few weeks, and generally speaking this are the best performers given the buying or selling at such round numbers.

I will also try to keep the full list to 8 for this week, as I feel that's the ideal number for a watchlist - I will have a strong preference for excellence in the setups next week lol as I think it could get choppy.

Watchlist most likely finished on Monday, didn't have time for it this weekend. It's Labour day anyway right?

Interesting day for a few reasons here today.

1. Choppy with 2 quick losers
2. Quick unexpected jump in one triggered SEC PDT regulations
3. Account flagged as PDT and banned for 90 days or until I have $25k
4. TOS support desk rescues me with an request to remove ban
5. Ban appears to be lifted from Tuesday
6. IP Target hit and then some
7. Battle at DRYS with S/R at the moment

Anyway trading is pretty hard at the moment, mostly external factors removing my focus. Keep missing watchlist entries because of college which is really frustrating me, especially since 3 out of the 4 days are just a waste of time in terms of intellectual stimulation. This is resulting in badly executed trades, which although are small are completely unnecessary.

XLY is still holding the channel superbly and if this breaks it it should represent a strong short. Market has sold off quite a lot from highs today, lots of stocks failing simple setups so I continue to believe this is the top of the bear market rally.


IP has defied the chop this week and has surpassed the initial watchlist target (opening gap above it) which is really good. Naturally I am delighted to have missed this trade, and I hope I can get some long term benefit from the course about "stuff I already know about, and by the way I'm missing the setups teacher" at college. Nice chart


DRYS trigger from the 50ema remains intact, and the clear trading range here in the short term is $6-$7.30. Has sold off hard in the last hour and closed the gap. Next entry areas are over $7.35 or a trade at $6 short or long depending on market at the time. For some reason I continually get JBLU mixed up with DRYS. Is it the price level and volatility of them both?

DOV really popped out of that descending wedge strongly this morning after testing the lows of the support area. It looks like an easy setup but the DOV trade has been hard this week given the variations in support levels in the range. Sell area at $32.25 triggered and it too is selling hard. Is this what is sounds like when DOV cries?


SOHU also sprung nicely out of a declining volume pullback on to the 200EMA. I don't like this setup however, given that it dropped so far before clear prior resistance before bouncing. I like something with a little more respect for historic price action - so I won't post the chart.

Going to listen to some Prince now that the song is stuck in my head.

IP working well, triggering second buy level on a breakout over $11 today.

EWU has broken out on low volume so far.

DOV stopped out and has had a nice jump afterwards, currently forming a descending wedge so looking bullish.

DRYS triggered entry off the 50EMA yesterday at $6.05 looking good at $6.57

DIG broken out too, need to see a close above $25 here.

Charts later.

Couple of watchlist alerts so far this week;

AAI - Complete chop and stopped at short term $6.75 after entry at $7.

DOV - Channel support area long at $30;


MSFT - Just triggered at $20

IP - Retested entry level at $20 currently long;

SOHU - Hit $51 entry and stopped out shortly after

And this chart on XLY is probably the best treding I've seen lately (30min);

It will be interesting to see what happens here should this make a lower high ($23) and fails to hold $22.

Update later:
Markets starting to look weaker now, watching this for a breakdown - lots of stocks testing prior support as resistance just now, wondering if this is just a sell-off or the end of the bear market rally.

Fairly small watchlist this week with a couple of different setups. Haven't really had the time to go as deep as I normally do looking at charts, and given that this week I'll be in college 4 days it kinds of limits my trade management ability so I'm looking for some no-brainers for this week.

Was going to finish my hedging and relative strength reports this weekend but time has been tight. Look for these next week.

AirTrain Holdings AAI
Tight consolidation period at the high of an ascending wedge led to a pattern breakout - on huge volume. This has climbed $2 in the past few days and is seeing a low volume pullback at the moment.

There is a good amount of horizontal support firstly at $7 and the consolidation highs and gap price at $5.75. There is also significant EMA support with all lines crossed over and in correct order. AAI closed the week just rejecting the 200EMA on the weekly chart, which leads me to think that there could be a continued low volume sell off early next week.

I am bullish here until the consolidation range highs are breached.

Long
1. Short term or 1/2 position at $7.00 (stops at $5.70 if scaling, $6.75 if short term.
2. 1/2 or whole position at favoured level of $5.75 although I'm not convinced we will get there. Stops at $5.40
3. A breakout of the short term double top at $7.60 with stops at $7.55
4. Favourable supportive action on the 15min chart when AAI is at the 20 or 50EMAs on the daily.

I am looking for $9.50 here.

Short
1. Short term trade is AAI breaks $6.95 down to either $6.25 or $5.75 although I would not personally trade this.

International Paper IP
Great short term chart here in IP and I am bullish given the amount of clear support. Multiple short term channel breaks and bull flagging into the measured move areas from different bullish continuation patterns.

Good volume on the breakouts and good positive divergence in the MACD. $12.50 and $15 the next two overheads that I can see.

Long
1. A pullback to $10 or the 50EMA on the 30min represents a great risk reward trade. Stops at $9.85 with a target at $11.95
2. Breakout to new highs over $11

Short
Note looking to short IP but there will be an opportunity should it first fail $10 and look bearish past $9 too.

Juniper Networks JNPR
Explosive moves from JNPR lately. Tested $22.40 3 times without success and with negatively diverging histogram on the MACD. These runaway days usually result in good trading after they get a rest so I will be watching this over the next week looking for a few things.

JNPR also closed just off the 200EMA on the weekly chart and has some overhead resistive trendlines currently in the $24 region.

I am bullish here but there are shorting opportunities.

Long
1. Ultimate long is at $19.30 which represents a triple top resistance point before the breakout. A retest here is a nice setup with initial stops at $18.95 with targets first at $21, $23 and as high as $25 on measured moves.
2. Retest of the psychological $20 level could offer a good long considering there is still full supportive EMAs
3. Breakout to new highs above $22.50 with stops at $22.25 and a £24.75

Short
1. A break of $20.95 means that there is a good possibility of a falling window to close the gap price. Target of $19.50.
2. medium to long term shorting opportunity past $19.25 with the next support levels at $17.50, $16.50 and $15.


Dover Corp DOV
Simple consolidation trade where the range is in between the 200EMA and the20EMA on the daily chart. I feel whichever route this takes will lead to a nice breakout and a nice trade with an easy measured move. $32.50 is historically a strong support resistance area in DOV and this level is being tested regularly at the moment with rejection. Key levels here are $30 support and $32.50 resistance. Trade the breakout on a channel measured move for +$2.50.

On the weekly DOV bounced nicely off the 20 at $30 on Friday and the next overhead there is at $34 and $35. I feel bullish but it depends where the market goes next week.

Long:
1. Breakout of $32.50 with buyers and stops at $32.25 looking for $35.
2. Scale in long at channel support $30 if buyers are strong with stops at $29.5 and targets at $32.50 and $35

Short:
1. Breakdown of $29.90 with stops at $30.25 and target at $27.50
2. Scale in short at channel resistance at $32.50 with stops at $32.70 and target first at $30 with views to $27.50

I remain neutral here and will trade this depending on market strength of weakness. Good two-way trade.

Ultra Oil&Gas ETF DIG
DUG is choppy but DIG is a little easier. Key resistance level here is $25. I am looking to go long here if we break out on volume and also close above that level. Easy setup and doesn't really need a chart, but here's one anyway.


DryShips DRYS
Excellent tight consolidation range over the past week, moving averages look really good here too rising on support. Would like to see these cross over.

$6 and $7.25 represent consolidation lows and highs, I am bullish looking for a breakout over $7.25 or off the 20EMA on the daily. Stops depend on entry with support at $5.75 and then $7.20 support on the breakout with a view to targets at $9.50-$10.

Price levels in other stocks worth watching:

• If RIG can get above and close over $69 then I'm looking long.
• Traded IR nicely last week on the $20 break. A retest at this level represents a great long.
• EBAY on a pullback falling window to $15.25, expect pullback given at 200EMA on daily.
• EWU breakout at $11.50 and channel support at $10.80 for two-way trade.
• MOO over $31
• MSFT retesting $20 level
• SOHU retesting $51 as support
  

Will be watching a lot of ETFs this week to get a better idea on where each sector is going.

Update Monday morning GMT:
Will also be watching;

Adobe Systems ADBE
Featuring a lot of continuation patterns on the 60min. Has broken out over resistance at $25 and a pullback to this level will be a nice entry with stops initially at $24.50. This is forming an ascending wedge too, so if the pullback occurs before we hit the wedge resistance, that line will be our exit point.

Not looking to short here until under $23.

Energizer Holdings ENR
Nice rising channel into triple horizontal resistance and the 200EMA on the daily chart. Has made nice moves off the 20EMA recently, with the 7% gain on Friday coming on big volume. I am feeling bullish for a breakout here with a price over $58 but with this much overhead a short could also be on.

For a short I'm looking for some big volume and relative weakness to the market, and a failure of the 20EMA and the $52.50 level on the daily chart. A sustained sell off could see this drop to form an ascending triangle, meaning in time when the market begins to recover again, ENR could easily hit $90 based on the measured move.

Not so much an intra-day action but here's what I'm watching for the next few days. Will be busy with college and spring cleaning so doubtful I will get much time to trade.

KMB
Looking for horizontal support entry at atound $49 with crossing and supportive 20 and 50EMAs. Target in excess of $51. Second entry at $48 has already tested so will gauge that should $49 fail. Looser stops and smaller size than normal as the market seems indecisive at the moment. Daily chart trade.

ARE
Simple support failure at $31 on the cards for new 52 week lows, looking to short. Daily chart trade.

GT
Double top with negative divergence on the 60min, with a similar formation short term on the 15min. Would like to see $9.75 drop with short term target at $9 down to $7.50. Daily, 60min and 15min.

HMC
Gap flag forming, potential ascending triangle too. I am bullish here and I'm looking to enter long either on a break of $29 but more favourabley around $27.50ish when the 20EMA catches up with the buyers. Overhead at $30 and also a good candidate to short to close the gap. Tight range and quite small risk in all setups in HMC. Daily and 60min.

IR
Nice gap on huge volume yesterday, strong overhead at $20 with support at $17.50 and gap price. Looking to enter long on a break of $20. Daily chart.

ICE
Consolidation range pullback to the 200 and 20EMAs, not much decisive volume the past few days, also horizontal support in the $80-$81 region. Bullish until $80 fails on volume. Daily chart.

Update close of day;
Had a nice scalp trade in FAS earlier, easy easy setup fopr a quick $100. Went up immediately on entry and hit my target pretty quickly (the perfect trade right?) and even went quite a bit higher. I've won 7 of my last 8 trades now so need to maintain the consistency and keep the focus. IR looking very nice closing above $20 too.