The Student Loan Ranger

[UPDATE]

2009-05-09T17:24:00.002+01:00

Will be updating the blog layout tonight so apologies if it looks screwed up. Work in progress to make blogging a little easier.

Update:
I have fully migrated the blog, including old posts to the new address at thestudentloanranger.wordpress.com

It's been a good first year with Googles Blogger service but I feel it's time to move on. Update your bookmarks and come have a look.

TSLR

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-05-08T16:02:00.004+01:00

I am on a momumental and unparalleled run of bad luck in my personal life at the moment; even wrecking a brand new white t-shirt 30minutes after I bought it by some choc milk basically exploding all over it - and I buy choc milk and wear white t-shirts all the time - so wtf!? This also means that I can't really clean it because it's a certainty that either it will shrink and be useless, the washing machine will ruin it (as it does everything else) or I won't make it on time to hang it out (upside down, from the bottom) and the shoulders will be stretched as wide as the Grand Canyon.

The list just keeps getting bigger, and I can only imagine that it's getting so big because I am noticing every tiny thing that's going wrong at the moment. So I've bought some EuroMillions tickets for tonights £108million draw, and I expect a sudden and severe change in my luck soon. The probability is that I win and get mugged by a bunch of kids who claim the prize, or the government will introduce a 99.999% tax on lottery winnings the day I claim.

Needless to say with this much terrible luck I am not trading at the moment. If I were I'd still be long UNG on a perfect breakout. I am amazed to see the amount of people on StockTwits who responded to this technical move, rather than anticipate it. Not to be a horn blower but April 4th people;

I would also be keen on DRYS on a pullback to $7.50, yet again with DRYS, watch for the 20ema on the daily with consecutive lower volume days on the decline;

And LDK should it drop go $8.80-$9 on consecutive lower volume days than Thursday, watch the 20/50 on the daily;

Update later;
The run continues. Went for a work out and DRYS bounced off the 20EMA by nearly 50 cents in 5 minutes.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-05-06T20:19:00.003+01:00

UNG looking really good here. The next level I am looking for is a close above $15 and also like I said the trend is most responsive to the 40EMA, and this is right where UNG is as I write.

Also this rally is just relentless. However it seems clear that some news about the stress test results was leaked today given the action is stocks like BAC:

Spent a little while checking out StockTwits service today, looks good - lots of good ideas but it's so clear that most day traders are sticking with BAC C FAS FAZ SKF SPY SDS and not much else. Going to test the portfolio filter based on my watchlist to see what other people think of my ideas (not that anyone elses opinion matters when you're a trader of course!).

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-05-05T12:21:00.003+01:00

A little too late for a watchlist this week but here are the stocks I'm watching for the next few days. No charts this week as I've got too much happening in my out-of-trading life:

AA - Nice breakout still in an ascending channel and closure over $10

APA - A longer term one for the watchlist, strong day on Monday and it closed first at resistance and second at the 200EMA on the daily. Would love to take a long if this pullsback to $70.

XLY - The trend that I've been following the past 2 weeks remains intact and once more is at the resistance line.

DOV - Still watching for a breakout from last weeks watchlist on DOV at $32.50 and $29.50

DRYS - Still watching from last week as DRYS looks to close a gap at $11.50. Dream trade on a pullback to $7.50 but I'm not sure we'll see it in this cycle.

LDK - Has closed the gap and closed above a resistance point at $9. Waiting for a pullback to the 20 and 50 on the daily chart for entry.

XLB - Beginning to creep out of a consolidation range between $13 and $14.

UNG - Been watching this for ages, double bottom is in place so I'm looking for a movement out of the resistive trendline and over the 40ema here. A retest of $14 would be a strong entry. OK I'll show a chart here, zoomed in 60min to show the bottoming formation;

[WEEKLY ROUND-UP]

2009-05-03T21:10:00.005+01:00

Very choppy week for me, lots of fake entries in the watchlist too - The money was made in the excellent DRYS and IP trades, big money with small size on great risk reward setups. Gotta catch these!

AirTran Holdings AAI
Terrible action this week and a stop shortly after entering long at $7. Poor to trade.

International Paper IP
Great trade, very predictable considering the strong breakout and a low volume test of such a good number like $10. This trade excelled and it gapped up above the first target level.

Juniper Networks JNPR
Chopped up here too as the first short criteria triggered. Like AAI you'd have been in the profit quick, but since it didn't get running and didn't even get near the targets, you'd have had a small loser on your hands again. I like how JNPR is being supported by the former resistance trendline as it forms a small continuation triangle. A breakout to new highs over $23 still looks good to me.

Dover DOV
I thought earlier this week that DOV triggered the stop at $29.50, but it didn't get there. Busy week and not much attention spent I think. Triggered the long setup number 2 with a scale in at $30. The target was first $32.50, the price was as high as $30.32 so if it was a scale in for half then that's a scale out for half and still holding with a stop still at $29.50, Which I would now move to breakeven at $30. $32.50 for the breakout and $29.50 for the breakdown still remain the key levels.

Prosultra O&G ETF DIG
We are in DIG from Wednesday and it remains a hold despite the choppyness. Needs to remain above $25 in what I think will be a messy week next week.

Dryships DRYS
Both entry criteria were hit this week for DRYS which was a really great setup. The 50EMA bounce off the consolidation lows at $6 was a peach of an entry, and the breakout above $7.25 was also strong (half at each for profit calc). Has not hit the target at $9.50, and I am moving the stop to $8 here.
A pullback to $7.50 would be nice here, especially considering the amount of buyers in the past 2 days.

Adobe ADBE
The cheapness of my entry and risk reward strategies meant that I was 22 cents off catching a wonderful trade in ADBE this week. Abode didn't trigger, and closed the week at triple trendline resistance and on the end of a fully formed ascending (bear) wedge. Still a nice chart and would like a pullback to $25 still.

Energizer ENR
In at ENR at $58, don't like the action here so moved stop to $58.25 expecting a drop.

From the price level list:

RIG has closed above $69 and my sentiment is bullish only if we can break the resistive trendline on the daily chart from Jan 6th-Friday.
36 cents too cheap on the $20 retest on IR which had highs just shy of $23.
No pullback on EBAY which maintains it's consolidation range of $16-$17 and at the 200EMA on the daily.
A breakout on EWU and we are long at $11.55, a retest of $11.50-.75 looks like a good long considering the amount of buyers on the breakout.

MSFT on the $20 retest still holding with stops at $19.75 looking for $22. Strong forces at work as it's pinned between the 200 and 20EMAs on the daily with significant wicking off both.

A stop out on SOHU as it dropped $2 for the stop and then closed the week at $8 higher.

Results for the week:

Statistically you have to be happy with this, 70% winners and total actual risk not much greater than 2 positions worth. However there are still a lot of holders, so depending on where DRYS opens up the profit could be much lower. Yet again there is some pedigree in the list from this week which boosted the laggards (IP and DRYS). Without those two trades then the profit would be at $350 or so, which is still good enough for me.

For next weeks watchlist I'm looking to focus on stocks at key psychological levels - $10 & $20. There have been several on the watchlists at these levels for the past few weeks, and generally speaking this are the best performers given the buying or selling at such round numbers.

I will also try to keep the full list to 8 for this week, as I feel that's the ideal number for a watchlist - I will have a strong preference for excellence in the setups next week lol as I think it could get choppy.

Watchlist most likely finished on Monday, didn't have time for it this weekend. It's Labour day anyway right?

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-30T18:11:00.006+01:00

Interesting day for a few reasons here today.

Choppy with 2 quick losers
Quick unexpected jump in one triggered SEC PDT regulations
Account flagged as PDT and banned for 90 days or until I have $25k
TOS support desk rescues me with an request to remove ban
Ban appears to be lifted from Tuesday
IP Target hit and then some
Battle at DRYS with S/R at the moment

Anyway trading is pretty hard at the moment, mostly external factors removing my focus. Keep missing watchlist entries because of college which is really frustrating me, especially since 3 out of the 4 days are just a waste of time in terms of intellectual stimulation. This is resulting in badly executed trades, which although are small are completely unnecessary.

XLY is still holding the channel superbly and if this breaks it it should represent a strong short. Market has sold off quite a lot from highs today, lots of stocks failing simple setups so I continue to believe this is the top of the bear market rally.

IP has defied the chop this week and has surpassed the initial watchlist target (opening gap above it) which is really good. Naturally I am delighted to have missed this trade, and I hope I can get some long term benefit from the course about "stuff I already know about, and by the way I'm missing the setups teacher" at college. Nice chart

DRYS trigger from the 50ema remains intact, and the clear trading range here in the short term is $6-$7.30. Has sold off hard in the last hour and closed the gap. Next entry areas are over $7.35 or a trade at $6 short or long depending on market at the time. For some reason I continually get JBLU mixed up with DRYS. Is it the price level and volatility of them both?

DOV really popped out of that descending wedge strongly this morning after testing the lows of the support area. It looks like an easy setup but the DOV trade has been hard this week given the variations in support levels in the range. Sell area at $32.25 triggered and it too is selling hard. Is this what is sounds like when DOV cries?

SOHU also sprung nicely out of a declining volume pullback on to the 200EMA. I don't like this setup however, given that it dropped so far before clear prior resistance before bouncing. I like something with a little more respect for historic price action - so I won't post the chart.

Going to listen to some Prince now that the song is stuck in my head.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-29T16:51:00.002+01:00

IP working well, triggering second buy level on a breakout over $11 today.

EWU has broken out on low volume so far.

DOV stopped out and has had a nice jump afterwards, currently forming a descending wedge so looking bullish.

DRYS triggered entry off the 50EMA yesterday at $6.05 looking good at $6.57

DIG broken out too, need to see a close above $25 here.

Charts later.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-28T15:10:00.004+01:00

Couple of watchlist alerts so far this week;

AAI - Complete chop and stopped at short term $6.75 after entry at $7.

DOV - Channel support area long at $30;

MSFT - Just triggered at $20

IP - Retested entry level at $20 currently long;

SOHU - Hit $51 entry and stopped out shortly after

And this chart on XLY is probably the best treding I've seen lately (30min);

It will be interesting to see what happens here should this make a lower high ($23) and fails to hold $22.

Update later:
Markets starting to look weaker now, watching this for a breakdown - lots of stocks testing prior support as resistance just now, wondering if this is just a sell-off or the end of the bear market rally.

[CRYSTAL BALLING APRIL 27TH-MAY 1ST]

2009-04-26T16:32:00.008+01:00

Fairly small watchlist this week with a couple of different setups. Haven't really had the time to go as deep as I normally do looking at charts, and given that this week I'll be in college 4 days it kinds of limits my trade management ability so I'm looking for some no-brainers for this week.

Was going to finish my hedging and relative strength reports this weekend but time has been tight. Look for these next week.

AirTrain Holdings AAI
Tight consolidation period at the high of an ascending wedge led to a pattern breakout - on huge volume. This has climbed $2 in the past few days and is seeing a low volume pullback at the moment.

There is a good amount of horizontal support firstly at $7 and the consolidation highs and gap price at $5.75. There is also significant EMA support with all lines crossed over and in correct order. AAI closed the week just rejecting the 200EMA on the weekly chart, which leads me to think that there could be a continued low volume sell off early next week.

I am bullish here until the consolidation range highs are breached.

Long
1. Short term or 1/2 position at $7.00 (stops at $5.70 if scaling, $6.75 if short term.
2. 1/2 or whole position at favoured level of $5.75 although I'm not convinced we will get there. Stops at $5.40
3. A breakout of the short term double top at $7.60 with stops at $7.55
4. Favourable supportive action on the 15min chart when AAI is at the 20 or 50EMAs on the daily.

I am looking for $9.50 here.

Short
1. Short term trade is AAI breaks $6.95 down to either $6.25 or $5.75 although I would not personally trade this.

International Paper IP
Great short term chart here in IP and I am bullish given the amount of clear support. Multiple short term channel breaks and bull flagging into the measured move areas from different bullish continuation patterns.

Good volume on the breakouts and good positive divergence in the MACD. $12.50 and $15 the next two overheads that I can see.

Long
1. A pullback to $10 or the 50EMA on the 30min represents a great risk reward trade. Stops at $9.85 with a target at $11.95
2. Breakout to new highs over $11

Short
Note looking to short IP but there will be an opportunity should it first fail $10 and look bearish past $9 too.

Juniper Networks JNPR
Explosive moves from JNPR lately. Tested $22.40 3 times without success and with negatively diverging histogram on the MACD. These runaway days usually result in good trading after they get a rest so I will be watching this over the next week looking for a few things.

JNPR also closed just off the 200EMA on the weekly chart and has some overhead resistive trendlines currently in the $24 region.

I am bullish here but there are shorting opportunities.

Long
1. Ultimate long is at $19.30 which represents a triple top resistance point before the breakout. A retest here is a nice setup with initial stops at $18.95 with targets first at $21, $23 and as high as $25 on measured moves.
2. Retest of the psychological $20 level could offer a good long considering there is still full supportive EMAs
3. Breakout to new highs above $22.50 with stops at $22.25 and a £24.75

Short
1. A break of $20.95 means that there is a good possibility of a falling window to close the gap price. Target of $19.50.
2. medium to long term shorting opportunity past $19.25 with the next support levels at $17.50, $16.50 and $15.

Dover Corp DOV
Simple consolidation trade where the range is in between the 200EMA and the20EMA on the daily chart. I feel whichever route this takes will lead to a nice breakout and a nice trade with an easy measured move. $32.50 is historically a strong support resistance area in DOV and this level is being tested regularly at the moment with rejection. Key levels here are $30 support and $32.50 resistance. Trade the breakout on a channel measured move for +$2.50.

On the weekly DOV bounced nicely off the 20 at $30 on Friday and the next overhead there is at $34 and $35. I feel bullish but it depends where the market goes next week.

Long:
1. Breakout of $32.50 with buyers and stops at $32.25 looking for $35.
2. Scale in long at channel support $30 if buyers are strong with stops at $29.5 and targets at $32.50 and $35

Short:
1. Breakdown of $29.90 with stops at $30.25 and target at $27.50
2. Scale in short at channel resistance at $32.50 with stops at $32.70 and target first at $30 with views to $27.50

I remain neutral here and will trade this depending on market strength of weakness. Good two-way trade.

Ultra Oil&Gas ETF DIG
DUG is choppy but DIG is a little easier. Key resistance level here is $25. I am looking to go long here if we break out on volume and also close above that level. Easy setup and doesn't really need a chart, but here's one anyway.

DryShips DRYS
Excellent tight consolidation range over the past week, moving averages look really good here too rising on support. Would like to see these cross over.

$6 and $7.25 represent consolidation lows and highs, I am bullish looking for a breakout over $7.25 or off the 20EMA on the daily. Stops depend on entry with support at $5.75 and then $7.20 support on the breakout with a view to targets at $9.50-$10.

Price levels in other stocks worth watching:

If RIG can get above and close over $69 then I'm looking long.
Traded IR nicely last week on the $20 break. A retest at this level represents a great long.
EBAY on a pullback falling window to $15.25, expect pullback given at 200EMA on daily.
EWU breakout at $11.50 and channel support at $10.80 for two-way trade.
MOO over $31
MSFT retesting $20 level
SOHU retesting $51 as support

Will be watching a lot of ETFs this week to get a better idea on where each sector is going.

Update Monday morning GMT:
Will also be watching;

Adobe Systems ADBE
Featuring a lot of continuation patterns on the 60min. Has broken out over resistance at $25 and a pullback to this level will be a nice entry with stops initially at $24.50. This is forming an ascending wedge too, so if the pullback occurs before we hit the wedge resistance, that line will be our exit point.

Not looking to short here until under $23.

Energizer Holdings ENR
Nice rising channel into triple horizontal resistance and the 200EMA on the daily chart. Has made nice moves off the 20EMA recently, with the 7% gain on Friday coming on big volume. I am feeling bullish for a breakout here with a price over $58 but with this much overhead a short could also be on.

For a short I'm looking for some big volume and relative weakness to the market, and a failure of the 20EMA and the $52.50 level on the daily chart. A sustained sell off could see this drop to form an ascending triangle, meaning in time when the market begins to recover again, ENR could easily hit $90 based on the measured move.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-23T13:30:00.003+01:00

Not so much an intra-day action but here's what I'm watching for the next few days. Will be busy with college and spring cleaning so doubtful I will get much time to trade.

KMB
Looking for horizontal support entry at atound $49 with crossing and supportive 20 and 50EMAs. Target in excess of $51. Second entry at $48 has already tested so will gauge that should $49 fail. Looser stops and smaller size than normal as the market seems indecisive at the moment. Daily chart trade.

ARE
Simple support failure at $31 on the cards for new 52 week lows, looking to short. Daily chart trade.

GT
Double top with negative divergence on the 60min, with a similar formation short term on the 15min. Would like to see $9.75 drop with short term target at $9 down to $7.50. Daily, 60min and 15min.

HMC
Gap flag forming, potential ascending triangle too. I am bullish here and I'm looking to enter long either on a break of $29 but more favourabley around $27.50ish when the 20EMA catches up with the buyers. Overhead at $30 and also a good candidate to short to close the gap. Tight range and quite small risk in all setups in HMC. Daily and 60min.

IR
Nice gap on huge volume yesterday, strong overhead at $20 with support at $17.50 and gap price. Looking to enter long on a break of $20. Daily chart.

ICE
Consolidation range pullback to the 200 and 20EMAs, not much decisive volume the past few days, also horizontal support in the $80-$81 region. Bullish until $80 fails on volume. Daily chart.

Update close of day;
Had a nice scalp trade in FAS earlier, easy easy setup fopr a quick $100. Went up immediately on entry and hit my target pretty quickly (the perfect trade right?) and even went quite a bit higher. I've won 7 of my last 8 trades now so need to maintain the consistency and keep the focus. IR looking very nice closing above $20 too.

[BACK FROM HOLIDAY]

2009-04-23T09:30:00.002+01:00

Back from holiday, will be light on the market action except I'm watching Goodyear (GT) on a double top. Will be working on 2 articles in the next week or so, one focusing on the concept of relative strength and the other on the effect of hedging your trades using inverse ETFs.

Both of these are personal investigations to help me learn more about trading strategies to help my account in the long run so keep an eye out on those.

[WEEKLY ROUND-UP]

2009-04-18T08:22:00.004+01:00

This is a shorter than usual post given that my vacation is nearing and end and I've got things I'd rather be doing than messing about with a one monitored computer getting screenshots all over the place.

This week saw the introduction of the 30% drawdown from max profit rule, which was triggered on the majority of the trades that gave a signal this week - and on all of the stocks still being held from last week.

I'm not sure exactly how I feel about the rule yet, it is very difficult to manage a trade when you have these extra variables and this sheet took a lot longer than normal to compile. It protected my downside from last week but gave a lot of chop this week - that could just have been the market being different of course.

Statistically there were 3 big winners - BHI DECK and BRCD. DECK was initially a stop out loss, due to bad stop placement. The re-entry signal was at $61 (original at $60) and this is still in the portfolio over the weekend. JBLU was the best trade on the watchlist as it behaved as expected on the numbers front but my execution of this trade left a lot to be desired.

BRCD saw some good trade management and this continues to be held with a stop loss equivalent to a profit of $360.

Watchlist results for week

And here are the trade management blocks for JBLU BRCD and SFD as according to the watchlist. JBLU was a cent off .50 and anybody with any wisdom would have cashed at .45 or higher. This pic is for my calculations so apologies if it doesn't make any sense.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-17T09:05:00.003+01:00

Watchlist is looking pretty stagnant with the exception of JBLU and MRVL. FOSL might get a rock and roll as I believe there was a 1/4 scale in trigger yesterday.

Was trading briefly last night and bought TNA at $22, sold out at $22.17 after a violent drawdown. Nice bounce off the 50EMA with a reversal candlestick. Sold purely because I wanted to go to bed (it was 1am here at that point) and the stock rallied to $23.50 so I was pretty sick when I saw that this morning.

Anyway I'll be watching CEDC tomorrow, nice rise and it's forming a continuation ascending triangle at the moment. I feel good about this stock and I'll be buying the breakout. The pullback will also be a great trade. This trade is a short term position with a target around $20.50. The breakout price for me is $19.05 with stops at $18.75 with notice to the 20 and 50EMAs on the 15min chart.

In other news the watchlist this week will be a pure what triggered and what didn't, as my vacation is drawing to a close and I've got a lot of college work to get on with too. This also means I probably won't manage a watchlist post on Sunday either. Looking forward to getting back home to more than one monitor and British Summer Time (5 hrs difference instead of 12).

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-16T10:48:00.005+01:00

Just want to cover 2 trades from the watchlist which I've traded so far this week. They are both excellent setups and really great trades, but my execution was shocking in retrospect and I need to uncover the reasons why. This should also give readers an insight into what I look for when stocks are approaching trigger levels.

First up is MRVL, the entry target was initially $9.75 last week, and this figure was adjusted to $10 for new entries this week. Here's the chart:

My entry here was at $10 based on the ridiculously sized pullback on what I considered relatively low volume. This is the 15min 5 day, you can also see the bullish candlestick wicking at the support level - which was also a falling window as it closed the gap.

My entry was great and it started to move nicely later in the day and formed a bull flag into the close. A slight drop down on Tuesday saw a wave of buyers and some aggressive up moves. I cashed out at $10.62 on a pullback from the double top where my initial target was around $12.

MRVL has made 3 lower highs since then, but at no point was my position in jeopardy of a loss even with my tighter than usual stop at $9.85.

I took the profits here because they were there to be taken, and I didn't want to give them back. There is no harm in that, but in the long term if I take profits at 30% of the way to my target it will be detrimental to the growth of my account. I made 3:1 risk on this trade which is good, but realistically I should still be holding - despite this weeks 30% drawdown from max profit rule.

Jetblue trade

This setup was just golden. Watchlist entry was $4.50 long with stops at $4.35 and initial target at %5.25-50 with a longer term view to $6. I said I would evaluate the trade on a break of $5. JBLU dipped a little below the trigger price and filled the window. The downward pressure continued a little but the short term support trendline remained intact. A double bottom at the 200EMA ensued before some industry based news (AMR earnings) cause a rip in the airline stocks an this just took off.

I cashed out at $4.81 which was mistake one. Mistake two was that I didn't add to my position at the support level as I only scaled in half. Mistake three was not giving the rally time to breathe. Mistake four was watching the rally on the 5min chart and not the 15min or hourly. Mistake five was not holding until the initial target at $5.25 (which was hit on the nose). Finally mistake six was not buying back in on the greatest low volume pullback bull flag at a clear support level ($5).

That's six mistakes in one setup and six new things I've learned about this kind of setup. Similar to the MRVL setup I made about 2.5:1 risk here and it's great to get profits, but risk is risk and I know I am willing to lose it on a trade - so why take profits before the target?

I think plainly the reason is the setup I'm using here to trade with. 1 monitor with a relatively slow broadband connection, trading from 9pm-2:30am ish while jet lagged. Physically the setup is bad, and I believe that has negative connotations psychologically when it comes to trading.

Elsewhere I lost $20 on WABC, it wasn't my risk or a drawdown, I re-evaluated the trade and decided it wasn't a good setup. No issue closing a trade that isn't working, because you are essentially losing money by having your capital tied up in a slug. Retrospectively it was a bad choice to add that to the watchlist, given the low volume and a spread which is nearly as bad as a UK stock ($0.20 .. ok, so a UK stock would be more like 25p on a 10 pound stock, but still - for the US 20 cents is unacceptable to me).

AKS looked great on a retest of $10 - the watchlist trigger was actually to short that at $10 - you would have been very quickly stopped out there on the 30% drawdown rule for the week - or would have lost entire risk.

This 30% rule for the week will be interesting to evaluate at the weekend. I feel it is important to protect profits and reduce losses, but this could actually have a negative impact on your trading, closing trades that are working for you and are still at logical support or resistance areas.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-14T00:19:00.002+01:00

Lots of triggers from the watchlist, and a few stops hit based on this weeks 30% drawdown rule. Nice bounce in the markets this afternoon, but the volume is unconvincing. Chuffed that GS had some decent earnings, we could see some buying tomorrow morning as a result.

I'm long MRVL at $10.08 - really wanted $10.02 but c'est la vie. Best entry today from the watchlist was HCP at $20.05 - was up to over $21.45 while I was still watching it - not sure on the closure. I believe there was a potential pants down trade in AMB which I'll cover later in the week.

BRCD, JBLU and FOSL also desperately close to entry points. 1/4 scale-in rule activated on a few of these today.

I'm jet lagged and working on 3hrs sleep so no charts today.

[REVISED RISK CALCULATOR]

2009-04-13T11:33:00.003+01:00

On holiday in a different country with a different operating system so spent some time working on a new risk calulator because I didn't take my existing one with me. I prefer this one now and will incorporate it into my trade tracker spreadsheet. Also helps for scaling in and out.

Leave a message/email if you want a copy.

[CRYSTAL BALLING - APRIL 13TH-17TH]

2009-04-11T17:21:00.004+01:00

This took a long, long time to compile this week so let's do this..

Big post this week. Click the tickers to get the charts from last week that continue

Stocks on a continuation from last weeks post at here

AMB
Entry long at $18 with stops at $17.75. Next support level for me is $16.50, then $14.85-$15. My bias is long. Longer term a failure of $14.85 represents a good short entry with an initial target of $12 with potential for $11.

BHI
Looking for BHI to break above $31 and retest that as support for a long entry with stops at $31.80. Target range is $32.50-$34. Major overhead at $34.50 wth next support level at $30 then $28. Will trade the prices and remain neutral here.

EWZ
Entry price at $43.35 with stops at $42.75 meaning this is one for a smaller position size than normal. A failure of $43 sees next support at $41. A failure of $41 would make me very bearish with targets at $38 and $36.

HCP
Looking for HCP to retest the support line around $20 for a long with about a $0.30 stop. Measured move from this breakout is $23.25. Has a support trendline and the 200EMA on the 30 min too. Would look to take another long at the next key level at $16.50, a failure of this and I'm looking at $15 to cover.

MRVL
Approaching overhead now, has nice support horizontally and with the 200EMA on the daily. Have moved the stop to $10.05 and will consider scaling in more here. Really not looking to short this one at the moment.

AAPL
Remains short from last week at $120 with stops at $121 and target at $115. Will move a break-even stop at $119 and then trail a $1 stop from there as this could pop.

JCP
Would really like to scale in long on a retest of $22.50 as support. Big gap on nice volume and at the 200EMA means this is a choppy trade until then for me. Use a $0.75 stop here after being caught out on last weeks long. Looking for $27.50.

XLK
Stop moved to break-even at $16.25 for half with remainder at $15.90 with a target at the 200EMA and overhead resistance. Would like to add to the position at $16 if the action looks bullish.

GYMB
Descriptive signal triggered at close on Thursday, full analysis covered this week so scroll down.

New additions:

Canadian Solar CSIQ
Channel play in what is essentially a bear flag setup in the long term. For the swing setup the key level is $7.50. We have bull flagged for the past few days up at resistance with some good if not spectacular buying pressure. Oversold on the daily indicators here.

Looking closer on the 60 minute there is some good support in the $6-$6.25 region, however we are looking at forming a descending triangle here is this pennant/flag doesn't quite work out. The good thing is that this pullback has been on minimal and declining volume.

Due to the nature of this setup, a trader will have to be very quick at making up their mind whether to go short or long. The short term tradable range is $1.25 in a stock under $10 which is quite substantial.

I have used the daily chart instead of the 60 day as it shows the setup a little more clearly.

Long;
$6.50 with stops at $6.20 with an initial target of $10-$11. At $7 I would sell 1/4 and move the remainder of the position to break-even.

A breakout of $7.50 provided the volume looks good. Stops at $7.30 with initial target at $9.50. I would look to manage this trade in a manner that really prevents drawdown, potentially selling 1/4 at $8, $8.5 and then $9 with a remainder stop trailed by $0.50.

In the real longer term, an entry at $3 is sound but unlikely. The measured move from the channel and double bottom is at $11 (where the 200EMA is on the daily)

Short;
Breakdown of $6.50 with target of $5. Scale out 1/4 at $5.50 and move the stop to $6.00 and see out the rest of the trade as per this weeks 30% 'drawdown from high' rule.

The long setup here represents the best risk reward ratio, in your favour by about 12:1

Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK
Playing this as a 123 setup with a support price of $60. I am looking for this to get to about $65 before retracement based on the last gap fill channel move at $55. There is scope here for $70 but I would really like this to pullback first.

This is a relatively straight forward setup, and again I include the daily instead of the 60 day. Good divergence shown here.

Long;
$60 with stop at $59.75. Initial target at $68 with a view for $70 (1/2 at $68 - $0.50 trailed stop).

Short;
I am not looking at a short in DECK until the price has dropped below $50.

Fossil Inc FOSL
Very busy chart but bear with me. The dashed blue lines act both as support and resistance that aren't horizontal. I see these every now and again but few work as well as they are here. I am bullish here on FOSL so use the lower line in the trade. Daily chart first, also included the 60min for your pleasure.

This has had a great move lately, however the volume has not been superb. Nice breakout from $17.50 but with the 200EMA right above it on the daily, I have to expect a pullback to re-test the support range. The short term triangle is a pennant in the medium term. Continuation on the horizon.

Short term ascending triangle measured move is $19.50 and that is my initial target. Second target is the measured channel move at $20.50. I have two concerns here first is the lack of volume in the breakout, second is the formation of a bear flag with negative divergence on the macd. Those factors are what makes this a great two way setup. I expect this to pullback to $17.50 which provides the first entry.

Long;
At $17.50 with stops at $17.20 with initial target at $19.50 (1/2 here) to $20.50 for remainder. Stop is trailed $0.50 here with the 30% max profit drawdown stop applying here as with the rest of the watchlist.

Short;
I am hesitant to enter short given the amount of bullish continuation signals here. I would really only look to short at $15.50 to $14. Giving up $14 more or less signals a strong reversal with targets at $11.50.

I am short term bearish medium term bullish.

Jetblue Airways JBLU
I think there could be a few watching this one next week. JBLU really in no mans land at the moment, and I feel this could be a great trade both ways this week.

Strong overhead at $4.50 is now support. The trend is definitely up after a micro head and shoulders, and there is also an ascending triangle at work. Full 200EMA support on the 60 day too.

However, there is some strong resistance coming up. Notably the 200EMA on the daily, horizontal at $5.25 and a resistive trendine also at $5.25 at the moment. The amount of overhead increases at $6.25.

I am anticipating a slight drift upwards before a pullback to $4.50. The ascending triangle measured move is at $6, the channel measured move is $5.50. I feel that the pullback to $4.50 is backed up with negative divergence in both indicators, and the price is extended from the moving averages.

Long;
Long at $4.50 with stops at $4.25 with initial targets at $5.25-50, and then $6.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting this at $4.10 downwards to $3.50 with stops at $4.25

This trade will be re-evaluated should JBLU close above the following levels; $5.25, $6.25.

The Gymboree Corp GYMB
I am just gagging to short this. Well, I already have as the alert was triggered right at the close on Thursday. 25% jump, closed right at the resistance level which goes back a few years. Also at the 200EMA on the daily. Yes there is huge volume on that move, but check the volume on the previous drop. People re-adjusting their portfolio and getting carried away maybe? Short covering gone mad? It's up 100% in the past month. This smells like war food Sunday - overcooked.

Long;
The only long here is a retest of $27.50 after GYMB has been as high as $30, with a target of $35. I am not at all interested in a long this week.

Short;
Right now or from $27.30-60. Stop at $28 - this is slightly lax I expect some buyer spill-over from last week into Monday. Initial target at $24 for 1/2 with the remainder at a falling window gap close at $22.50.

Westamerica Bancorporation WABC
Somebody needs to explain the WABC business model to me because I straight up don't understand the chart. If you exclude the crazy price action from September 19th last year, WABC is only down 23% from last years highs.

If you compare that to the other regional banks of a similar market cap you can see good relative strength; CYN -44% BOH-46% ZION -75% GBCI -60%. Looks like a good deal should the rest of the market re-test the bottoms of the year. Generally all this sector does is consolidate, albeit in a large range.

We've broken out from the overhead at $49 off an ascending triangle that has a measured move of $55.50. This chart looks very boring, but that's ok, trading isn't always an adrenalin rush. The only thing I'm looking at is $49, and whether or not this will pullback to there. Watch out for $55.50 before the pullback as that could provide a micro-short.

Long;
Retest of $49.25 with stops at $48.65 (small size because of exposure). With targets partially at $54 (1/4) with stop moved to $52.50 and trailed a buck up to $55.50 - at that point there will be potential for $60 on a measured move so I'll keep my analysis updated for that.

Short;
A quick trader will spot the rally is ending by checking histogram divergence and bearish candlestick formations. I predict this could be at about $54 but will let you know. A scalpers trade.

Realistically not looking to short WABC medium-long term until $44 is a goner.

Brocade Communications BRCD
Busy chart. V bottom reversal, bear flag, pennant and nice breakout above resistance at $4. Closed above and successfully retested the 200EMA as support with a nice looking doji in good volume. Measured move from channel is $5 with longer term measured move at $6 (also a resistance point).

More of a longer term trade, I would be looking to enter long here at two levels, and due to that it required good risk management to cope with the exposure. The only overhead that I spy with my little eye is a gap fill at about $5.20. Apart from that we are rosy until long term overhead at $6.

I like the bullishness of this chart, and I'm keen to enter on a pullback.

Long;
Remember risk management is vital in this trade. 1/4 at $4.50 with a view to get more at $4.25 and $4, really depends on the type of trader you are. Realistically I would like to see $5 before we pullback and ideally I am looking to enter at the 200EMA or $4.25 with stops at $3.80. Partial target at $5, seen out to $6 with very aggressive management after $4.95. This setup represents the absolute minimum risk reward setup I like to trade at 3:1

Short;
I would look to short this at $6 with a stop at $6.25, working with a 4:1 ratio with targets first at $5, and then around $4.50.

A breakdown of $4 will offer a scalper a $0.50 trade, but I would not personally trade this given my account rules.

Smithfield Foods SFD
A stock that looks like it follows its measured moves pretty well. A strange key level in $11.30 here, but one that was breached on Thursday either way. Excellent double bottom - check the positive divergence on the macd and increased buying pressure. Long term measured move from that is $25, but I'm focusing on a smaller time scale this week.

In my mind the support levels are $11.30, $10.50 and $10 and I remain bullish until $10 is given up on volume. The volume has been thin lately, so we need a boost early next week or we'll pull back to these levels - fine enough if we want to go long. An entry without this level of pullback could be difficult.

Short term overhead at $12.50 and $13 with longer term resistance range at $15-$17.50. The 200EMA and resistive trendline are in the vicinity, which add weight to the pullback claim.

Long;
Pullback to $11.30 as a water tester with 1/4, however I am more likely to advise $10.50 as the entry point with stops at $9.85. Target initial at $12.50, with a view to either closing or tightening stops at $13 or the 200EMA.

Short;
I would feel comfortable shorting SFD at $12.50 with a $0.25 ONLY IF the rise if on low volume and the 200EMA is right there. I would look for bearish candlestick action too, and if possible, more negative divergence on the macd histogram.

Yingli Green Energy YGE
I can only assume these guys are Chinese with a name like that, and it's good to spread the exposure. I quite like this chart, but nearly didn't include it this week.

We are testing $7.50 for the 4th time as resistance after 2 higher lows in what most would assume is an ascending triangle. I don't like the ascension here and I'm viewing this more as a channel trade or a 123. Strong resistive trendline and 200EMA await overhead, apart from that there is minimal horizontal until $12.50. Volume has been strong on the latest rally

I will be watching the candlesticks here as we look extended, and we are right between strong overhead and support, meaning any potential move could be strong. Ideally I would like to see a move to the 200EMA and then a pullback to $7.50.

Long;
At a retest of $7.50 after a breakout providing the chart shows strength (pullback on lower volume) for an entry long with stops at $7.20. Initial target at $9.50. Approach this entry with caution, as I would like the price to test the 200EMA before the pullback. The other important factor here is the gap at $9.12-36.

Second entry if you miss that, and one that represents a more favourable risk reward ratio is an entry off short term support at $6.25 with stops at $6.13

Short;
I would be comfortable with a short at $12 downwards with a stop at $12.25.

Short two for me is a breakdown of $6 with a target at $4.75 and a $0.25 stop.

Descriptive trades (no chart needed, check the dailies or 60d 60m):

Ak Steel AKS- short at $10, tight stop, psychological number, enter long on retest as support if breakout
Alpha Natural Resources ANR - trade channel at $15-$21.50 with short term support at $17
Temple-Inland TIN - Long at $6.25 as a re-test after a breakout, stop at $5.95. Short below $4.75

Stocks that didn't make the final cut this week: EWH JNY FO

[WEEKLY ROUND-UP]

2009-04-11T16:58:00.009+01:00

Blogger is playing up.. again. I need my own .com

Nothing worse than a gapping market for my style of trading, Thursday in particular was just straight up annoying as there weren't really new trades for swing traders to take positions in.
Before I cover this weeks watchlist, our one hold from last week - RTN hit the revised target at $41.60. The original target was $43 and that may still hit, but for record purposes lets stick with $41.60 flat.

Wow, I have really taken 2 monitors for granted, doing this kind of work with one is a nightmare!

AMB Amb Property
Very close to both entry points in AMB for a long, but if I am honest with myself I don't think I would have taken either. I was wanting around $15 for a long, but the retracement from the double top at $18 went only as far as $15.29. For my method of trading I wouldn't have taken this as it would have ruined the risk:reward ratio as set out by my trading rules.

The other long trigger was a retest of $18 as support (working on 30d/30m), and this price level has not been hit. A scalpable short was mentioned at $18-$15 and I said I wouldn't trade this, therefore I can't justify including any trades in AMB for record purposes. Currently AMBis testing a resistance trendline with horizontal support now at $18 which represents the next good entry for me. This stock remains on my watchlist given the variation of entries in the coming days and weeks.

BHI Baker Hughes
Short entry hit off the bat on Monday from $31. Targets were $30 and $27.50. I mentioned in a mid-week update that the position was closed at $28.25 based on a short term double bottom with positive divergence on the indicators. Let's assume $29 for the exit as you would have to be pretty elite to catch it at $28.25.

Current resistance on BHI is $31 again, with an entry long only on a successful looking retest of that price level after a breakout. There are better setups out there at the moment so I will discontinue coverage of BHI on the main watchlist and will move it to the sub-list.

EWZ Ishare MCSI Brazil
Same situation as at AMB this week. Retraced to $0.30 above our trigger level and then had a nice pop over the resistance level. I would not have scaled in or taken a position here as it would have also ruined my risk:reward setup. The long above $43 will be triggered on retracement.

Current support levels on EWZ are $43 and $41. I would short on a breakdown of these levels, first scaling in at $42.75. I see no overhead until a few cents short of $47 - a gap level and where the 200EMA currently sits on the daily chart. EWZ remains on the watchlist.

CHK Chesapeake Energy
No entry on CHK, current support at $20 which represents a decent entry. Remains on sub-watchlist with $20 a key level.

WY Weyerhauser
Choppy without trades. Remains on sub-watchlist with current resistance at $32.75, support at $31.

HCP HCP Inc
A few trades in HCP this week. Resistance at $20 was hit on Monday for a short entry. This hit a 123 at $18 and continued to break out. With my channel trading rules I would have sold 1/4 at $18 and moved a stop for the remainder to $19. I would have enjoyed seeing this one to $17 but no luck.

The next entry in HCP is either a 123 at $20 long, or a retest of $20 as resistance on a breakdown which is why this stock remains on my watchlist, resistance at $22, support at $20.

Longer term setups

MRVL Marvell Technology
Probably my favourite chart from the watchlist. Entry was triggered on retracement to 200EMA with entry price at $9.75 as per watchlist. Was slightly drawndown with that early entry, but my threshold is higher for swing trades. $10.50 was the measured move, and we closed in that region on Thursday.

Raising stop in MRVL to $9.90 with a target at the resistance trendline for partial, with longer term targets ranging from $11 (more partial) to $12. Remains on watchlist and remains bullish until $10 is breached. This still has all MA support underneath.

AAPL Apple
Short triggered at $120 as the week drew to a close. Stop at $121, initial targets at $115. Nuff said i think.

JCP J C Penney
Great setup which was faltered by a choppy and gappy market. Entry long triggered at $22.60, stop triggered at $21.50 on an island reversal. Closed the week at $25.42 up 12% from the previous day after that insane gap. Disappointing.

I was very bullish here, and remain very bullish here - but a stop is a stop and a loss is a loss. Remains on watchlist and I would love to enter long at a retest of $22.50. I will be watching $25 and the 200EMA to act as support. Next overhead at $27.50 with a target range of $30-$32.50.

XLK Tech spyder
Entry at $16.25 triggered. This entry was a little strange when you consider how I missed out on AMB and EWZ. I wanted the flat number on those stocks - which means I should have used the flat number here for the trigger ($16) but I was highly bullish here and felt this wasn't going to keep pulling back to that level. But it did, and AMB EWZ didn't. Oh well! Due to this, next weeks entries will adapted for scaling in 1/4 at 25% whole number levels.

Target was $18 however it responded negatively to the resistance trendline. Also there is a lot of overhead at $17 (horizontal) and $17.50 (200EMA). Therefore I will be moving a stop to $16.50 to lock it in and see it out. Next week will be an important one for the tech sector withXLK and AAPL at these levels.

Definitely remains on the watchlist, with $16 and $17.50 the key levels for me.

UNG US Nat Gas ETF
No indications to take a position either way. Continues to get beaten down, but the positive divergence also continues. A close above $15 will be the first sign of life here for me. Remains on watchlist.

GPS The Gap Inc
Entry on pullback to $14.50 triggered. This was a descriptive trade without the chart and looking back $14.50 is a horrible entry, given that it triple bottomed in the short term at the 200EMA at $14. Moving stop to breakeven at $14.50, with aggresive trade management should GPS look like not making it above the recent high at $15.25. Sub-listed.

GYMB Gymboree
Along with GPS and CSCO, this was a descriptive trade with a short trigger at $27.50. This was hit right at the close on Thursday. This setup is highly dangerous, given the immense volume on the day. $27.50 represents heavy overhead and the 200EMA so this will be an interesting fight. This has been promoted to full watchlist coverage for next week.

Trade chart for this week. Testing it out with Excel as a web page. Don't like the lack of sharpness on this monitor so no .png file. OK scrap that blogger is a nightmare importing html tables. Screenshot it is..

No entries in UNG EWZ CHK WY AMB
Drawdown from high: 30.56%
Running profit total: $4431
Realism factor: $2880

Decent week for the watchlist which looks stronger than it was due to the excellent RTN carry-over. In my opinion the best technical trades were the HCP and BHI shorts, with 3rd place to the XLK long. Unlucky not to get a trade in EWZ and MRVL, and was too strict on the entry criteria over at JCP.

The one negative issue from the past week was the drawdown from highs; as giving up 70% is unacceptable to me. For next week I will test out two new trade management ideas;

Scale in long 1/4 at $0.25-0.35 before the target for all trades.

Trail a stop at a 30% drawdown from peak profit per trade or -35% if there is a sound technical indication (price pattern, not macd or stochastics).

Post-script thought;

Macs do not lend themselves well to a regular trader, blogger and spreadsheet analyst.

[WATCHLIST UPDATE]

2009-04-09T06:32:00.003+01:00

I'm on a spontaneous holiday to Australia at the moment for the Easter holidays which is why there hasn't been any 'intra-day action' posts this week so far. Just sorted out my TOS platform on the computer here so will be looking to trade from tonight onwards. Apologies for any bad picture quality etc as I'm working off a one monitored Mac with a sluggish mouse just now.

Just wanted to cover a few signals that have been triggered on the watchlist this week so far. Also would like to give a shout out to a returning visitor from Estonia - thanks for checking out my blog.

Refer to the post here for technical analysis of the watchlist.

First off is RTN Raytheon, which was a hold into this week from last weeks watchlist. Here is the original chart, and I was looking at $38 again for another entry.

The $41.60 target has been reached for +$3.60 and RTN continues to look pretty good to me.

The potential short I mentioned in AMB was triggered off a double top at $18 at a resistance level. I was looking for $15 and it's currently at $15.80 with lows at $15.50.

I said I wouldn't trade this personally due to the nature of my account, but for any position traders or scalpers this was a nice setup even closing at $16 was a r:r of 15:1

CHK hasn't triggered yet but looks ripe for a breakout. If the next low is higher than $18.75 (which I think it will be, given the gap level) then we are forming an ascending triangle with a target of $23 in the short term.

CHK remains in the support and resistance ranges for all patterns mentioned on the watchlist post.

BHI was an easy short as it gave up $31 at the open on Monday. I have closed this trade given the double bottom yesterday at $28.50 for +$1.50.

I was short term bearish on WY and anticipated a pullback to $30. WY double topped at a resistance zone and has since sold off to $28 from $31.

Limit orders would have had you at a loss already on this, however a sharp trader wouldn't have gone long after that double top so we can assume a small loss for records here. I am bearish here.

Descriptive trade on the channel at HCP was triggered, down $2 and looking good. I would move a stop to $18.50 here to see it out to $17.

Longer term watchlist (check the dailies):
MRVL, hell of a battle at $10 but I'm feeling good about this. Anticipating a pop to $11 or so in the short term if it gets going.

JCP is also looking excellent here and I am bullish until $24 at the moment, but realistically I'm looking for $27.50. Long term trade was triggered at the close last night guys!

Trade also triggered at $16.25 on XLK. Stop at $15.85, would like to see $17.50 short term.

CSCO - rock or implode? implode by the looks of things. Big island reversal at the 200EMA and down over $2. Mentioned the stock but didn't give price levels as it wasn't a probable trade either way for me.

Also it looks like I meant $15.40 long on GPS not $15.50 as it hasn't been above that to pullback to that level. Volatile chart at the moment, looking for upward momentum. GYMB also selling.

No triggers quite yet
EWZ, AAPL.

[CRYSTAL BALLING - APRIL 6TH-10TH

2009-04-04T17:55:00.016+01:00

OK I brought it back.

These are what I'll be watching in the week ahead so far. Variety of setups and a variety of timescales. Quite a lot of stocks getting near important areas on their daily charts, the most significant stock at this point imo is AAPL. Absolute text book 123 short at around $120 next week. A rally over this will be pretty big for the markets.

Week ahead:
WY, CHK, BHI, EWZ, HCP & AMB

Longer term:
CSCO, MRVL, JCP, AAPL, UNG & XLK

Charts and views to follow, probably on Sunday. Here's a sneak peak so far;

Sunday update:
Let's roll.

Here are my setups for this week, with some longer ones to follow. There is one stock that straddles the two, and that's AAPL. Just to note I am hesitant to state whether or not I am bullish or bearish this week. I will check the markets on Monday pre open and see what the story is. I am still slightly bearish if anything, as I don't believe this rally is the bottom. There are also some big stocks coming up to major resistance levels - and the indices.. well I'll be convinced once $SPX makes it over, and closes above 880.

AMB Amb Property Corp.
Working off the 30d/30m here, with price levels checked for the daily. What I'm seeing here is a nice run to a recent overhead at $18 on good consistent buying pressure. There has been a nice ascending triangle, the target of which was passed on Fridays trading. The line in the sand for me is the $14.75 region where we gapped up over the support level. There is not much resistance until $25.

I am short term bearish, medium term bullish with no long term opinion on AMB.

My entry here is either long at $18 after it has broken above and pulled back - or something in the region of $15. We are overcooked on the indicators for me, however the divergences are positive. I believe by the time we pullback to $15 we'll have 200EMA support giving a low risk high reward entry of approx 9.25:1

Long:

At $14.75-$15 with stops at $14. T1 (partial) at $18 (stop to $16), T2 $22+ (trail stop by $1)
At $18 after a move upwards above given that there is MA support, good divergence and volume. Stops at $17.75 with targets at $22 (same rules as before).

Short:

Potential scalp at open from $18-$15 (I won't trade this)
Breakdown of $14.50 with targets around $12 (with $14.85 stop)

I would also like to state that the MACD signal line on the 60d/60m chart is providing the trendline for the move in AMB. A failure of this trendline, with retest, would result in me becoming bearish and looking to take a short position as per;

CHK Chesapeake Energy
Quite a standard setup here. Lots of overhead in the $20 region but we are looking up on the 60d/60m. Inverse H&S (just spotted) gives a highly optimistic target of $26, but I see short term resistance in the $21.75 region. If we can get a nice move above $20 I will look to enter on the retest. CHK could really pop in the next week or two given the chance. The only short I am looking to take here is a breakdown of $16.50 down to $13.75.

CHK shows promise on the daily chart too. On entry criteria the RRR (risk reward ratio from now on) is 15:1.

I am short term bearish, medium term bullish, long term bullish on CHK.

Long (favourable):

At retest of $20 after a breakout above there. Would really look for this to close above $20 as part of the entry criteria. Stops at $19.75. T1 (partial) at $21.75 with stops moved to $21. T2 at $25/200EMA.

Short:

Breakdown of $16.50

CHK shows good relative strength for the sector, and I would advise watching the crude oil futures, RIG, SLB, HAL & OXY here. Also OIL XLE DIG. I am definitely bullish here above $20.#

BHI Baker Hughes Inc
The simplest chart and entry criteria of this weeks watchlist. The key level here is $31. The question is this; Will BHI hold the 123 with all EMA support (30d/30m) and boost it to $33.50?

Long (favourable):

From $31-$31.25 with stops at $30.85. T1 (partial) at gap close of $32.50 with stops moved to $31.75. T2 $33-$33.50 with pretty tight stops from $32.50 upwards.
A break above $34 retested as support for the first time with stops at $33.50.

Short:

Scalpable short under $31 to $30.
Swing short on breakdown of $29.75 to $27.50

I am short term bullish, medium term bullish with no long term opinion on BHI.

RRR approx 6:1

EWZ Ishare MSCI Brazil ETF thing
Pivotal level for EWZ this week. Been looking into these funds at the moment, and some fundamental research has suggested that Brazil is in the top 3 economies best placed to recover from the recession. For a longer term play this is promising, for the short term, this is also tradable.

At the moment we are between support and resistance levels. Short term support has been established on a 123 with the price at $41. Medium term resistance on my charts is circa $42.25 with the 200EMA also pressing.

The setup is fairly straight forward for entry...

Long (favourable):

A retracement to $41 offers a supreme setup. Long at $41 with stops at $40.80. T1 (partial) at $43 with stops to $42. T2 at $46.50 with stops trailed without aggression. Watch out for the 200EMA on this one too.
After a breakout above $43, the retracement to that level as support offers entry 2. Stops at $42.75 with targets at $45+$47 with stops and trailing applied as above.

Short:

I would short EWZ only at a breakdown of $40 provided there is high volume on the pullback and no moving average support featuring correct divergence on the indicators. This is a high risk short in my opinion.

I am bullish on EWZ across all timeframes. I would like to see this show relative strength relative to the US indices as well as the other emerging market funds. RRR setup is a ridiculous 20:1 average meaning if $41 is on the table, there are absolutely no excuses for not trading this one!

Others.
I was going to include these charts and descriptions but I'm not convinced on their transparency for the week ahead.

First off is WY Weyerhaeuser

I'm looking for a long on a close above $33, or on a pullback to the $30 region. These setups are risky given the recent gap activity and it's now in a congested resistance zone. I am short term bearish, medium bullish, long term no opinion.

I was also going to cover HCP Hcp Inc, however the setup is purely a consolidation trade. Current resistance $20.10, current support $17. Short and long in this range, or short and long on a breakout of this range. Easy trades that don't warrant the bandwidth and time on a chart.

Longer term setups

MRVL Marvel Technology Group
Tremendous chart here in my opinion. Nice ascending channel after a trend establishing inverse head and shoulders. Trading above all moving averages and just closed above $10 - an important psychological value in trading. Nice compact consolidation range in the lead up to Wednesdays engulfing candle too. Progressive volume is another strong factor in favour of MRVL. Measured moves here are at $10.50 so more room to run. We are at horizontal resistance and channel resistance based on Fridays close so I anticipate a pullback.

There are a few setups here, the best one is an entry long at $8.30 - however I don't think we'll catch that as the 123 was already hit on March 17th. A strong close above $10 would be my second favourite entry here, and there is also potential at $9.75. If we can get over $11, then I don't see anything until $13, $14 and $16 so there are a variety of trades here both short and longer term.

I am bullish on MRVL but a drop below $8 would make me highly bearish here.

AAPL Apple Inc
This is the "big one" this week. AAPL is approaching major, major overhead on the daily (going back to 2007). It had a nice 123 breakout with support at $103 and $110 at the moment. I don't often watch tech stocks, something I will change here.

The volume lately has been strong, but not remarkable. Other tech stocks have been firing up lately, most notably RIMM and AMZN. The tech spyder is also looking strong, but shows signs of weakening soon based on resistance areas (covered later)

An on fire AAPL will no doubt boost the rest of the market, and I believe everyone and their Grandma will be watching it this week. The key price I'm looking at is $120. It's the first retest of a 123 setup (generally the strongest) and we are oversold everywhere. The MACD is trending quite nicely however, and we have had strong candle stick formations out of that bull flag last week.

I believe we will see $120 this week, which is why this straddles both long and short term setups. A scale in short at $120 is what I have on the cards. However given the nature of the beast, my stop will be loosened (circa $125) giving me a low, but still favourable (3:1), risk reward setup. I am not convinced we will see <$105 anytime soon.

JCP Penney J C Co
Bit of retail here. Very nice chart here, another that I think will show up on other peoples' scans this week. Medium term overhead has been around $22.50 lately. This closed at $23.06 on Friday after 3 strong days of volume out of a bull flag setup. There is a trend reversing double bottom in play, and inverse head and shoulders, a cup and handle and rounded bottom. I am very bullish on JCP in the short-medium, but expect some pullback from the 200EMA soon.

The measured moves from the patterns range from $30.17-$33.48. I think we will see the action here this week too. I would like to enter long on a pullback to $22.60 with stops at $21.50. I am hesitant to short here given the amount of bullish reversal and continuation patterns, and I see more upside than downside here. The 200EMA and $27.50 are my short term targets, longer term I'm looking for the measured move range as indicated by the purple action on the chart.

XLK Technology SPDR
Not much of a tech or sector player, but XLK is looking OK and coincides well with AAPLs potential move. I put the big jump down to strong results in the tech sector lately with lots of money moving there since mid January.

We are approaching a resistive trendline, the 200EMA and some horizontal all in the same region. I would like to see a pennant form for an entry, but ideally I'm looking for a little jump, a pullback to $16.25 and then a blast off to around $18. Nice looking chart. Not looking to go short here.

UNG US Nat Gas ETF
Have not seen an instrument do this for a long time, even dead cats bounce but not UNG. Lots of attention here too I think on this beaten down ETF. How much longer can this downward momentum last? There has been some short covering/accumulation lately here, and I am looking for some signs of life..

Watch the MACD, volume and 40EMA here on the daily as they will be the first indicators. Current resistances for me are $16, $18, $22.50 and $26. If we start to see these get taken out, go long. Would like to see a double bottom or a 123 above $16 with MA support for a long myself.

Others:
I was going to cover Cisco (CSCO). Currently at the 200EMA with a gap up over support at $18. This could rock or implode here.

Gap (GPS) looks good on a pullback to $15.40 for a long. In the same sector we have a wild chart on Gymboree (GYMB) approaching a gap close area. Would like to eventually short it at $27.50.

[WEEKEND TA]

2009-04-04T14:28:00.011+01:00

Bit of a wrap up here on what I thought was going to happen last week. LNC was probably the biggest mover on the list - I was bullish into Monday morning but the gap down meant no order was on here so I won't cover the chart.

RTN Raytheon
I was bullish on RTN too, and said I would enter long on a retracement back to the gap area from $37.75-$38.25. We got an entry and we still have our position, however we are dead crossed on the short term MAs with the 200EMA coming up nicely underneath. Still bullish here above $38 - a pretty sound short term short trade is on the cards under that level for me.

BNI Burlingon N Santa Fe
Looking good here too, very nice bull flag out of the long term resistance trendline. Entry criteria here was a break above $63 or a pullback to the $60 region. We got the $60 entry first. The initial target was $65 which was hit on Tuesday. Nice trade and looking for continuation with $65 as support.

DY Dycom Industries
Entry here was a retest of the $5.30 region on a 123 with MA support. This setup was signalled on Monday with a nice candlestick formation off the 200EMA. The measured move for the ascending triangle was $6.75 which was hit on the button. This area looks congested here given it is also at the ascending channel resistance lines with negative divergence on the indicators. I am looking at $6.00 as a new support level. This has already been tested with a wick down so I'm not sure if this will hold next week.

HD Home Depot
Trade signalled here too, although it was a dangerous one. The short criteria was below $52 which came straight off the bat on Monday morning. at best this move was only worth $0.75 and either you would have sold out at the short term double bottom on Tuesday morning, or at the same level on Wednesday. If not there, you'd have been stopped. A re-entry on the gap up on Thursday would have been good enough yet again for only $0.75 as the $54 target was hit. With all these varibles (3:1 in favour of system) I can only put this in as a small profit trade for record purposes.

FCX Freeport Mcmoran
Another mixed entry bag with FCX, according to my setups we would have had 2 trades here. First was a short at open on Monday at open ($40) which you would have carried probably until the double bottom/bullish engulfing at $37 for 3 points. The other was a scale long over $39 with $43 as the target (also hit) for another 4 points. Nice trades!

DE Deere & Co
I was very bearish on DE, entry was triggered at the open on Monday at $33.90. I was looking for $30 but the exit would have been taken at a double bottom at the 200EMA at the open on Wednesday for approx $1.50. I was not looking for any long position here and DE actually broke out long this week which was surprising.

EXC Exelon Corp
I was very very bearish on EXC and was caught out on the trade here. I shorted at open on Monday and at best had $70 in the kitty. I kept holding as there was no real exit reason until $46. I closed a little before that on strength and this rippsed to $48.80. I am now looking to enter long on a retracement to $46. This was nearly a full risk loss but relative to the other setups was favourable.

Ok so some good setups this week, unfortunately I simply picked the wrong setups this week. Kind of difficult to hit it right when you can only make 3 trades a week with a small bankroll. Statistically my setups looked like this assuming each position was ~$5000 with risk measured accordingly.

Assuming slippage, partial fills and early/late exits (-30%) a more realistic profit figure would be $2041. With commissions this figure is ~$1970. Decent week as that's just over 7% on a standard day trading account (25k).

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-02T22:37:00.003+01:00

Pretty cruisy day for the paper account today. Wasn't trading until late in the day but solid either way;

Not sure where this market is going at the moment. Will evaluate it for next week and adjust my entry criteria and see how that affects my bottom line.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-04-01T14:59:00.007+01:00

Is this market taking the p155 or what? Just entered another trade on yet another screwed up limit order that meant I shorted DRI at a support level ($34) instead of where I wanted to (<$32.90). When was the last time we didn't gap? Basically I'm going to blow out my account by setting ANY limit orders. I've been in this trade for 3 minutes and it's already my biggest loser this year.

I'm going to pull the plug on my account until I have over $100,000.

Peeved off update:

This is on my paper account when fills are more or less instant regardless of availability. How the hell did I get filled for 200 at open in my live account?

PS - Yes.. DRI is making new highs.

16:20 GMT
Yawn yawn.. Trading is the easiest thing in the World when you have clout lol.. 14:3 wins against losses in 60 minutes. I've had one winner in 6 in real life the past 2 weeks.

Also going to trade long in DRI on a 123 here.

Update 17:00 GMT
Stocks finally showing parity with the indices. I'll post a chart later on why this rally today was a load of bollocks.

I am very much aware of the concept of relative strength, but this is ridiculous. The whole market was like DRI today, totally overdone. The rally wasn't even big in the indices today, 100% predictable almost. But stocks.. come on!

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-31T11:23:00.006+01:00

Pre-market banter:
Much doom and gloom overnight, although there has been a slight rise in the futures I believe this will be a continuation flag as I continue to be bearish this week. Earnings on APOL today which is in a nice consolidation range at the moment between $79 and $75. Any breach of these gives an entry so it's something I'll keep an eye on premarket.

Oil still below $50 which should help my open trade in EXC today, although this could jump at any point. Depending on the opening price I may or may not adjust my stops and limits here.

I wonder if there will be any life or rebound in LNC today. Elsewhere I'm going to start tracking LDK as I like the chart setups there.

I also signed up at Covester yesterday so check it out. It's a site that automatically tracks your trades and has a good community of solid traders, so it should be a good thing.

Charts, setups and news to follow after the bell.

Update before the bell:
Looks like we're going to open higher here, potential for a small gap. However I remain bearish given that the futures are currently ascending wedging into the 200EMA on the 15minutes as part of a bear flag.

Update 15:42 GMT:
LONG APOL @ $79.15 - 123 Setup
SHORT HD @ $22.82 - Bear flag setup

Not too confident on HD at the moment, tightening stops. Charts to follow, kind of busy atm.

Update 18:00 GMT:
Real real ugly day for trading, really choppy and we just had a big pop that closed me out of my HD. My HD was looking pretty good for a while but the sector picked up as the market churned away. Closed out of my APOL too for a small loss. Didn't really enjoy trading these stocks today and I kind of feel I am a much better trader when I scalp on size.

Perfect chart setup on X to show later.

Update 16:40 GMT
You know it looks like I've shorted the only stocks on the market that are prepared to rally 2.5% off lows today. 1 cent off my EXC stop here.

Late in day chart:

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-30T13:09:00.004+01:00

Looking at the short side today by the looks of it. No car bailout for GM and Chrysler, Oil dropping close to $50, G-20 pessimism on the global economy etc. All of this ties in quite nicely to my anticipated shorts in EXC, DY and DE in particular.

If you check back you'll notice this rally in the past 2 weeks or so has formed a bear flag in a lot of stocks, so some selling today could see a sustained downward move in the markets. For this reason I am bearish for the start of this week and will look to scale into shorts in EXC, DY, DE and possibly FCX too.

Premarket we are down in the futures but holding support levels at 7550 on /YM and 790 on the /ES. Today I am looking at resistance of 800 and 810 on the S&P. Both the Dow and S&P are at the S2 pivot points premarket.

Just spied some excellent FX trades overnight too.

Charts, updates and trade sheets to follow (if I make any)
Update 5pm GMT BST!
Very tempted to scale into a long on both DE and DY here based on a nice gap down to support areas;

Elsewhere I have scaled into a short in EXC at $44.91. Has consolidated around the pivot points today and I think I may hold this for a few days. Currently targeting $42.50 with stops $45.75. I'll post the trade sheet later tonight. Working at 4:1 ratio here which is ok, but feel my entry could have been timed better.

Evening update 22:50 GMT
Still holding my EXC short into tomorrow. I'm not so sure if this is a great move but time will tell. I am bearish on the EXC chart however there are quite a few big caps holding steady at support after todays gap down. I would really like to see this consolidation form a bear flag, with continued selling for the rest of the week. At present I have no adjusted my stops or limits in EXC as I'm going to let this run it's course.

This is my intra-day analysis of EXC. Felt really good when that double top at $44.10 went in. There was a strong high volume close today whiuch I put down to covering. BTW I left at 8pm to play football tonight so I missed the last hour of trading.

Elsewhere LNC got creamed, down nearly 40% today on news announcement. Nice sell off to $38 on FCX, a price level I mentioned. BNI was scalpable too.

I mentioned DE and DY earlier in the day, and I'm glad I didn't scale in as both show signs of weakness. DE did intra-day double bottom at $31.80 and got a bump off from that but I remain bearish until it's over $32.50

Trade of the day goes to one I missed; LDK. Perfect gap closing 123 against the 200+20EMAs on a dead cross...

These trades are great, but unless you're watching the stock at the time you will not catch these.

Penultimately here is my paper blotter from today. These were all limit orders except POT and UNP which I held short over the weekend. The highlighted BNI trade was a limit order gone mad (problem with stop/limit order), a simple mistake that must be avoided in the future.

Elsewhere I was up $510 on the FX account which brings it to over $20k - a 100% return in 5 weeks.

And finally,

A weapon of a tune from Royksopp!

[WEEKEND TA]

2009-03-28T17:57:00.006Z

Not quite a reprise of Crystal Balling but something in the same mould. Just gonna post a few charts now - gonna upload more and explain what I see happening in the short term later this weekend. Will also be putting up some charts of WMT, BNI, FCX, EXC, DY, DE and AAUK so stay tuned as there is a nice mix of setups both long and short here. Good luck to Scotland against Holland in the footie tonight.

Sunday update:
OK Holland destroyed us, we need Boyd back and the Caldwell goal to stand. Anyway here are the charts, I was going to include the AAUK chart but it's not that great and only needs one piece of advice: Sell it under $8.25 to $7.75 or more.

Let's rock and roll here...

LNC Lincoln National Corp
I am feeling pretty bullish here given the ascending wedge, inverse head and shoulders and strong move to close the gap. $10 also represents a strong psychological number that I expect to hold on the retracement. I do expect a pullback on Monday morning to $10 given the gap has been closed (some peoples targets on a long).

I will be long at $10 off the moving averages and support line with 3 profit targets: $13.25, $14.00 and $15.10

I will exit or short if possible at a failure of the moving averages, support line and medium term trendline currently in the $9 region.

LNC chart

RTN Raytheon Co
Bullish here too, really like this chart. Full support of the moving averages, nice MACD and stochastics and a good level gap.

I will look to enter long on these conditions;

Retracement to gap price between $37.75 and $38.25
A break of $40
A retest of $40 as support after a pullback from the other gap price at $41.
Favourable price action at $39

I will look to exit or short on these conditions;

Resistance at $41.60
Breakdown of gap prices
Dead cross on EMAs under $37

RTN chart

BNI Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.
Mixed bag of a chart here. It is currently at the resistance trendline both long term and short term channels and in an awkward trading range between S/R levels. Currently forming a nice bull flag with a pullback on declining volume. Positive divergence in the indicators which is a good sign.

Long;

Over $63
Retest of $60 as support based on 123
Off the 200ema

Short/exit;

$65 looks to have some S/R clout
Failure of $60 region as support

BNI chart

DY Dycom Industries Inc.
Pretty thinly traded stock here but a decent setup either way. Currently at a resistance level at ~$6.10. Has established some support in the $5.30 area which I will use as my entry. I currently expect a pullback as we are oversold on both indicators. Volume has been quite good the past 2 days which also leads me to think there may be profit taking soon.

Long;

Retest of $6.10 as support
Pullback to $5.30 for optimum setup (123 with MA support)

Short/Exit;

$6.75 is the measured move for the ascending triangle and 123 setup.
Failure of $6.00 with dead cross on 20/50 EMAs

DY chart

WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Very easy setup here. A couple of 123s into the current range of $52.25-$53. This setup needs minimal explanation.

Long;

Scale in long at $52.55
Long over $53
Long on retest of $53 as support

Exit;

Measured move at $54
Failure of $52
Potential to scale in short at $53 depending on market conditions if you are a scalper

WMT chart

FCX Freeport-Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc
Gold futures related trade here on quite a decent setup. Nice strong base formed in January with a current support level of $31 in the medium term and $38 in the short term. I am however bearish on FCX right now, given it's proximity to the 200EMA on the daily chart and ascending wedge on the hourly.

Couple of gaps to look out for here too, short term at $41 and $39. We are looking negative on the indicators, including volume for me.

Long;

Scale in long at $39
Long on break and retest of $43
Long term trade entry at $31, not for a while though

Short/Exit (favourable);

Breakdown of $41
Breakdown of support line on ascending wedge
Failure of 50EMA

FCX chart

DE Deere & Co
Also looking bearish on the daily chart at DE. On the hourly I basically see another ascending wedge that is the flag of a bear flag. We are currently at the long term resistance trendline with negatively diverging indicators and a rise on declining volume. We have also just filled the gap and I expect a sell off from here.

Long;

I am not looking to take a long position in DE at any point at the moment

Short (favourable)

$36 if you can get it based on gap closing double top at all resistance levels
Failure of $34
Failure of short term support line
Looking first for $30 (double top measure) then $29 (solid base here)

A short at $36 in DE represents the best setup this week. With stops at $36.20 it is essentially a 30:1 risk:reward setup in your favour. You cannot refuse these trades.

DE chart

EXC Exelon Corp

I could not be any more bearish on EXC right now. Bear flag setup into a strong resistance area with the 200EMA pressing down hard. Extreme negative divergence, rise on declining volume with oversold stochastics. I am very confident that this will fail this week, but I must be prepared to change my outlook should the market tell me otherwise.

Long;

The only long I will take is a support of $46 after a breakout with 200EMA support on good volume.

Short;

Right now.
Anywhere above $45.75
Looking for <$43

Very confident this will fail.

EXC chart

Should be a good week for trading. I will be experimenting with pivot points this week and will report next weekend with the results as it is something I would like to incorporate into my arsenal.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-26T18:57:00.005Z

Crazy figures on my paper account meant I've reset it back to $100k as I don't remember trading the futures for over $1mil this morning. Anyway I'm scalping out FAZ, POT and have taken a longer term short position in COG. Solars are performing well today with FSLR SOL & co doing a good job of fronting up the NYSE leaders list. I shorted COG based on a channel breakdown after a 65% move in March so far.

Market is dumping a lot at the moment, UNP made it over $44 which was surprising, but has tailed off as this is the price where there is good overhead. I would really like to see $43 hold here, and it will be quite bearish should this fail.

Long term POT has been really sideways but today I noticed a top quality trade on the short term POT chart today. I speak about '123s' a lot, here is an absolute text book example in the 2day 2min POT with a little explanation.

First up is the overhead resistance at $86.50 and this is our starting point. Earlier today we gapped up to this overhead and then retraced to a gap and former resistance level around $84.20. At this point there was an improving MACD and bullish stochastics, as well as the supportive power of the 200EMA which to me represented a good value entry.

However this is not a point at which I would look to enter a 123. The immense volume that lead to the breakout of the horizontal resistance at $86.50 was the first indicator that the following trade was on the cards;

123 setup where prior resistance is new support
Breakout level = $86.50, Recent support level = $84.20, Target difference = $2.30. Scale 1/4 of your position at the breakout with an initial target of $86.50+$2.30=$88.80. $0.25 stop represents a 1:9.2 risk:reward trade.
Buy remainder of position based on 123 setup when the price retests the former resistance level at $86.50 with a price target of $88.80
Also note the forming bearish wedge is in close proximity to our target area - therefore you can expect a technical sell off at this area too.

Anyway you can see that this was textbook and hit it on the nose with todays high at $88.81.

Update later

Nice trading in GS recently if you're quick enough.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-25T16:16:00.004Z

Nice chart and range in AA here..

Drawndown on my paper account at the moment so looking for some nice scalps in the futures this afternoon. Not watching too many stocks right now but will evaluate the situation when back in the black. Down $2800 just now.

Close
Up $7500 holding quite a lot of dow into the close short. Profit highs at $12k, lows at $5k so quite a swing today. About $2k on commish too, around 250 fills.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-24T12:00:00.006Z

Premarket banter

Couple of interesting charts catching my eye today. These charts are pretty big, but I think they're worth checking out in full view.

XEL at important support and resistance levels today after a major bull flag in yesterdays trading. Quite a lot of buying going on here so this is a potential breakout trade. Really will have to keep an eye on the health of the market and sector to see if this will pull through or not. I would be hesitant to short it here just now.

I really like the NWL chart here. Everything about it shows strength to me just now and I would like to see this hit $7.50 before retracing to $7.00 for an entry long. Lots of volume, great MACD, moving average support at all levels and a series of bullish technical patterns en route.

Lots of bull flagging lately on AA on immense volume and a nice break of a long term downtrend (see daily). Needs to crack $7.70 to catch my eye long, and I would consider an entry at around $7.00 if I could get it. Bullish.

Another brilliant chart on UNP. There is a lot going on here. First off this bounce into the resistance line at $42 is part of a bear wedge and volume has generally been declining. However the rectangles over the past day have been nice and tradable and offer a good platform (along with Moving averages and nice MACD) for a run to $44. My plan here would be to enter either at $41 on a pullback off the overhead, or a retest of $42 after a breakout.

The DIA trade is similar to UNP. You can see a similar rectangle here with support at $76. This within the support resistance range of 77-78 so keep an eye out for those 3 prices here today.

Not much happening here in EWT except the most tradable chart of all time. Not looking for a trade here today just think the progression out of a down trend and into these consolidation bands is something all traders should look out for when trying to establish whether a stock is really ready to reverse.

Premarket the futures are mostly consolidating, would like to see oil either drop $53 or beat $54 today.

Charts and intra-day news etc to follow..

Update 15:00 GMT

Very indecisive opening today. Lots of stocks gapping down to support levels and then moving on to resistance. UNP was a perfect example, as it gapped down, shot up to a resistance level with a double top at a bear wedge resistance zone. I traded this long on a pullback with an entry at $41.21 and same candle exit at $41.61. Should have held as it's now at $41.80, same problem as ever. This trade worked from the second I entered it which was satisfying.

Anyway I'm out of day trades for the week so I'm switching to paper for the rest of the week.

Update closing bell:

Was bearish most of today on paper, shorting on size in a series of nice scalps in futures and equities. Pretty easy trading after about 6pm here.

Best trade was probably shorting the 20 year bonds (/ZB) after that eruption an hour or so before close.

Elsewhere I'm clearly still operating in scalp mode as my swing trade in UNP ended up with highs at $42.39 (sold at $41.60). Got to let the swing trades run.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-23T13:56:00.001Z

Why does my network always fail on important trading days?

Choppy opening here today, was looking for some trades in POT, XLE and RVBD but the opening and lack of connection stopped it. Charts and updates to follow as I look for trades.

Update evening time..

Hard day to trade today, I was bearish all day and didn't trust the rally. I had 2 trades today, both micro losers and if I'm honest I shouldn't have taken them in the first place.

COG Entry and exit.

I was bearish on this triple top and saw weakness in the oil and gas plays. These were really extended all day. I took a small hit after tightening my stop as it started to show good strength towards the ceiling price. It was a great exit as it went on to trade 50 cents higher. Learned a lot about how to trade these openings with this trade so I feel my risk was justified by adding to my repetoire of skills.

RIG entry exit

As I said I was bearish all day but nothing would pull back today. This was a straight forward setup that has worked recently, however my luck was out today and I took a small hit here too. Another well place stopped as RIG went on to do this;

I missed two great longs while waiting for a better price. The cost of being fickle can be high as I would not have been exposed to the RIG trade had I taken either of these.

SSO setup

Wanted a better price, the only problem. Should have scaled in - lesson learned.

RVBD setup

Had the alert here at the gap close to take a long. Easy setup but as I mentioned at the start of the post, my internet screwed me over again.

Elsewhere POT went parabolic after diving back into it's old consolidation range. GS did most of the same thrashing up on huge volume into close.

Looking to go long SSO tomorrow around $20.45. Will also watch ERY and DUG tomorrow. I much prefer futures to ETFs, although I need to give it a greater sample size before I make my mind up. Hard trading today as it's hard to stay bullish when you're so extended!

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-20T18:28:00.003Z

No trigger pulls today, college then gym and dinner into the market. Bit of TA here in RIG which as far as I can tell has given nothing but sell signals all day.

SUN got creamed today after yesterdays sell signals and is trading down 1.85 at $26.76. Looking for support in this region.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-19T15:03:00.005Z

Another strong day here after a short day in college.

Trading well, here is my current blotter as at 15:00GMT

There has been extreme volatility today, as well as solid setups. FAZ and FAS were hedge trades which I continually scaled in and out depending on where they were going. My FAS trade wasn't very good but the FAZ was excellent.

Wheat was an excellent trade, and lately it seems that all agricultural commodities pop at the open - at least corn, wheat and soy have. I took an entry before open based on the fact it had broken it's consolidation range between 0900-1430 for 10 at 454.75. It popped to 559.5 at the open, taking half my position out at 550 on my limit. I closed the rest out as that gap was too good to say no to. I also caught a short at 557.5 as it consistantly hit resistance there on the 1 minute on declining volume with a bearish macd. I held for 6 points but should have anticipated the gap closure trade - as that's pretty much what it's done. That would have been another 10 points on 10 contracts.

Yet again I traded RIG based first on a short with positive divergence. I closed and reverse on a tiny double bottom with MA support and traded the breakout. I re-entered on double size based on a simple 123 setup at $63. Easy easy trading.

I was long SUN on a 123, lost my attention on this one as there was a second entry shortly after.

Bond trade another 123 setup of a double bottom at the 200EMA.

Oil trade - topping featuring negativity in divergence.

FX trades all scalps, USD/CHF bear flag setup on large size.

Easy trades today with nearly $20k gross profit. Biggest drawdowns were in FAS which I pair traded to profit. I have been scaling in short gold since 960 as this is showing signs of weakness to me.

Edit closing time:

Didn't make any more trades, closed out my gold for a few points to add another few hundred. FAZ made the move to $31 as predicted (although it did drop sharply off that price at the close.

SUN was nice to trade on both sides today with some nice technical indications to take short positions after I was bullish earlier in the day (previous SUN chart)

[EXTREME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS]

2009-03-18T20:33:00.002Z

Todays move was probably the best technical setup I have ever seen. I'll go over the daily, hourly, and 5min and explain why every timescale pointed to a rally.

Retrospectively of course, however I do believe there are a lot of people today who saw this coming and took positions accordingly and hats off to them! Just goes to show how much college gets in the way of trading lol.

OK here we go. Were you smart enough to enter the trade in the short term?

If yes, were you able to choose the logical exit area?

Backed up of course with the old principle of prior support being future resistance;

Trading is not hard! Here's my blotter for the day and a brief explanation

Opened the day seriously in the hole with a bad GS short from yesterday. Was down over $2500 at one point. I traded on immense size with a series of scalps to get it back green. Realistically this trade would have been impossible as somebody shorting $700k worth of GS would never get a quick fill would they? Seriously over leveraged too, caught out a few times so reversed which is a tactic I continue to use to winning effect.

Bond trades were also 10 contract scalps ranging from -$800-+$3000 and were relatively easy despite closing and reversing a lot.

FX trade was a bear flag which I entered on significant size on an easy setup and I still hold 250k short.

SPY trades were all large positions during a consolidation range that formed in the final 30 minutes. Made about 6 round trips in that range for good profit, some of it was mirrored with YM trades too.

Apart from the start of the day with the GS trades, at no point was I exposed to that much risk and I didn't have any severe drawdowns. Two essential ingredients to a successful and consistent trading day.

I bet we've got some fresh millionaires somewhere in the World tonight.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-18T20:27:00.001Z

WOW!

But the recession is not over.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-17T18:29:00.006Z

Haven't traded much today, was out most of the afternoon. Caught a small sized short in RIG based on a double top with serious divergence when oil was pushing on for $50. Needless to say I shorted both, and the oil trade is where most of my money has been today. Had a $100 loser in dow futures at the start of the day which I turned around with a low risk setup.

Charts etc..

It does not get any easier than this:

I also traded that bull flag (circled area) long, and sold out and scaled into a short above 49.75 for 6 contracts, covering quickly. I am currently scaling in long at 48.775 looking for a quick scalp.

RIG trade was so easy. Double top, divergence, and it's commodity running into major psychological overhead.

Here's my blotter. I'm not up that much, it's $1600 realised and I'm just over break-even on that oil trade.

Edit 10 minutes later GMT
Scalped out the oil as predicted, another easy trade. Done for the day. Markets are easy when you are quick enough to trade them.

Edit 19:25 GMT
OK OK if I'm in front of my computer; I'm trading, no doubt! Got it to nearly a $2500 by scalping out the consolidation range in the dow futures from the last half an hour. Current support at 7280 - looks toppy at 7300 (close and reverse area). I am now hesitant to scale in long at 7280 as we are looking extended.

Mammoth sell off in bonds today! Out of the long term wedge and looking to go lower. Watching 123'100.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-16T14:41:00.010Z

I keep saying it but I am a brilliant trader. I gave myself a month to double my paper account on TOS but 15 minutes into the trading day (equities time) I had made more than $126,000. I'm not really sure how it happened, as it just showed up when I was long bonds at one point. Which makes me wonder if there are expiration type deals that go on with /ZB which mean I would have had extreme risk and exposure outside my trading rules. Either way I'm delighted. Without that huge bonds windfall I am up over $6000 on the day anyway. Realistically I don't count this error in bonds as part of my P&L for today, but over $6k is around 6% of my value - not bad at all for 2 hours!

Blotter 1 (around 5 minutes after opening bell)

Blotter 2 (14:45 GMT)

Some charts:

Why I shorted Dow futures this morning;

Why I was long wheat premarket (anticipated full formation of ascending wedge). This sold off hard when Chicago opened but bounced back nicely. Should have held as the measured move is 550.

Bonds (/ZB) is really where the smart and quick cash is in the markets. Very simple setups worth a lot of dough. Here are my entry/exit points so far today. Generally scale in and out of a 10 contract position. I have reversed twice (covering 5 and buying 5) today after realising my entries were either wrong or late. This tactic really does benefit me and I have no hesitation i admitting I am wrong.

My trades in oil and gold were scalps. These two are hard to trade, especially gold where I had a $175 loss at one point. I am planning to move to a longer timescale for gold and I might cut out oil as it is too choppy/has been too choppy the past few days.

My trades in RIG and GS were shorts over the weekend, RIG panned out well and I shorted again shortly after close. GS was a hairy trade as it was trading at $101.6 premarket having shorted at $98.89. I scaled out of my 200 in 50s with my last 50 in the green. That tactic works significantly better than exiting on a market order for 200 at the bell (-$500).

My FX trades were all scalps on size, the best being a 123 setup in EUR/USD with support at yesterdays high.

Up about $131000 today so prob calling the closing bell!

Update 17:00 GMT
Added around another $2000 in profits. Nice trade at 7200 long on dow and another at 7250 and 7300. Pretty easy trading. Added some nice profits to gold and oil. Traded RIG based on oil move for a nice profit and scalped out over at KFT. Nice trade in soy bean futures too on a pennant formation. Wheat ended up 3.5 points short of the measured move so far and has been increasing on declining volume which I don't like - so might short soon.

I am becoming bearish on AUD/USD on a bearish wedge pattern here at .663. The only thing going for it is the new highs.

Currently looking to short dow soon, looking for 7300 again.

Edit 17:40 GMT
Trading with techno music is sublime. Added another $350 to dow and $375 to RIG. Dow trade was a long just over 7300 - I missed the short down there while blogging. Held for 15 points but could have easily continued to hold out for this move (bull flag right now). Entered large on RIG based yet again on a gut shot that the rally was overdone. Here's the chart of the rig short. The dow trade was purely a 123 pullback with moving average support and some seriously wicking candlesticks.

Trading music at its best yo!

Update 19:00 GMT
OK probably done for the day lol. Finally cracked +$1000 on the dow with a short at 7295 scaling out from 89-81. The final RIG trade added another $900. Not including the weird bond thing I'm up about $9-10k gross today with just over $2500 in commissions on 174 fills - and I didn't trade as much as I could have.

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART VIII AND REFLECTION]

2009-03-12T20:42:00.002Z

New wave trading. The period where I made the full transition from anything UK to everything US. New psychology, new rules, new abilities, new guns.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-trading-and-daily-action.html announced my comeback into market watching and trading. Signed up for a new data source and charting package and began watching just a few stocks. I also draughted a very concise and clear set of trading rules that I intend to stick to. Also begin to post daily blotter on elite trader to gauge consistency.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/intra-day-action_16.html Began a series of successful scalps, still selling too quickly though.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/excel-programming.html continued to develop my trading spreadsheet and incorporated a r:r calculator for added automation. I also incorporated a fictitious logo to add more discipline to my game. Lost quite a bit on AA based on a typo at this stage, so now everything is double checked.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/intra-day-action_19.html Nearly a year after I bought it at around £4, RBS is trading for 10p. The biggest disaster in UK company history is what they called it. I was, and still am, delighted at this decline.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/week-ahead.html this post resembles an early crystal balling post. However I have little confidence in TA at the moment and didn’t trade any of it. The price levels are too choppy for me, and those 2 weeks seemed to be the third wave of fear after June-July and Sep-Oct.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/intra-day-action_25.html I begin to monitor Forex, starting with a nice trade in GBPUSD.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/intra-day-action_27.html detailed FX setups included in a post for the first time. Start to spend more time watching FX than stocks.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/intra-day-action_29.html sever all ties with UK and UK companies after cmc lockout debacle. Sign up for TOS and entire a new era in my trading career.

It's now March 12th 2009. My account with TOS is days from funding and I no longer operate through the UK. I spend most of my time watching futures, which is a far far cry from my beginnings in small cap UK industrials and speculative oil stocks.

I've learned a huge amount about trading in the last year, enough to fill a huge post, but that's for later. The most important rules in my opinion are as follows:

1. Have a trading plan and mission statement and follow it rigidly.
2. Calculate and accept risk before any trade based on your trading rules.
3. Excel at technical analysis.
4. Maintain and reflect upon an in depth trading journal and learn your mistakes.
5. Fear and greed are irrelevant in trading.
6. Get statistical information about your trading habits and develop new ideas from them.
7. Stay away from anyone or anything remotely linked to the United Kingdom financial and trading industry.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-12T20:20:00.006Z

Apy poly loggies for the lack of charts yesterday, ran out of time to post them. Up $2100 today trading mostly futures (dow, gold, oil, bonds) with a decent profit in a well managed trade in CAL based on oil.

Spent most of the day finding over extended rallies and shorting them. Had a great one in oil mid afternoon and another into the closing bell and beyond on the dow futures. I am up $11000 gross on the week which is 11% while still following my trading rules. Needless to say I am gagging to get this account opened and funded asap.

Charts;

Dow futures rallied all day. I don't feel it was really tradable until 18:30GMT with these consolidation ranges, retests and formations. Best trades of the day as I caught the shorts and bounces on the second range. This image was taken before my last trade which was selling 5 of those double tops around 7130 again and closed out between 7118-7115. Talk about high probability emotionless trading!

To most this oil trade might seem very high risk, but in my opinion it was a very safe entry if you take the trade knowing that you should exit within 5-10 minutes.

Blotter;

Started with $100k on Monday, paper money so you ken fit like but trades are trades and I've made all of them.

Got the RIG trade wrong by selling to early as the cohesion with oil disappeared and I didn't want to expose myself to a pair out of symbiosis. Oil trade explained, relatively lucky on the bonds today was prepared to go long but shorted instead, just one contract though and cashed out before the big drop.

Elsewhere gold was hard work and is in my opinion probably the hardest contract to scalp at the moment.

PS things look up when you consider these singles are all released soon;

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-11T19:53:00.002Z

I am absolutely lethal when it comes to futures. Shame it's on paper. Applying my trading rules to substancially higher capital has really payed dividends this week as I am up $8345 on the week starting with $100k. TOS platform maintaining high standards especially for quick trades.

Currently trading the stupendous bull flag in 30 year bonds and scalping gold futures. Not much oil action. Did well in USD/JPY and had a nice breakout trade in EUR/USD.

Charts to follow.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-09T14:14:00.003Z

Absolutely fantastic day for trading despite being caught out by a clock change somewhere in the World.

/QM /ZB /YG USD/JPY is where the money is today. Terrific technical patterns. Too busy to post charts, will do later. Up $750 at the moment.

Update 10 mins later:

Probably gonna call it a day for just now. Traded well and with skill today so well chuffed. Here are some of the setups and trades from this afternoon.

Oil

Dollar Yen
Gold futures
30 Year T Bonds (15min/5min/1min)

End of day up $600.

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART VII]

2009-03-08T16:15:00.001Z

Severe volatility of the market forced me to the sidelines during this period. It was too hard to the best position was no position. Spent a lot of time working on trade management ideas, spreadsheets etc while I was on the bench.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/09/blog-post.html the briefest of all my posts features a chart of the S&P with notation on recent financial sector news. After this, my monthly average for posting dropped to 6 from about 22. I stepped out of the market for several months, the volatility was too much for a beginner like me.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/09/trade-tracking.html despite being out of the market, I continued to work in Excel to create a trade tracking spreadsheet that would fully analyse my completed trades. This was to work out which setups were working, whether i was a bull or bear, my win ratios, average net etc.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/09/trade-tracking_29.html Continued to work on the trade tracker spreadsheet. This is a huge asset to the trader.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/10/continued-selling.html September 10th 2008 and we are in the middle of the biggest financial collapse in nearly 2 decades. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_VUtY-2LMgqY/SO-YCm8BoAI/AAAAAAAAAsc/XM5cNkoTD5c/s1600-h/londontownisfallingdown.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VUtY-2LMgqY/SO5MAj2Q-dI/AAAAAAAAAsU/P0p6FpFEaeU/s400/maprecover.png

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/10/intra-day-action_21.html despite the mire, I was still able to practice my TA. I was working with smaller time frames and my analysis was good – mostly because I wasn’t putting my money on the line. At this point I think I realised I would rather be an analyst than a trader. I made 4 posts in November and December, the 1 in November was pretty much a token gesture.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-05T17:17:00.005Z

Just back from college. Looks like there were some excellent trades today. Just closed HD at $18.06 for +$300. Was working with limits and stops on this one, it jumped at open as predicted yesterday but has since sold off after a great signal to short at $18.80 earlier.

RIG has suffered a similar fate by restesting a support range as resistance and I would avoid a long in that right now.

USD/JPY fell hard out of yesterdays ascending wedge into the close with a nice retest on a dead cross and has fallen to a support area. Overhead is 98.50 with support at 98 for now so watch for signals accordingly.

Oil doing much the same with a top out yesterday as predicted. Has fallen to support range at 43.5 and has formed a short term head and shoulders formation. Would like to see this under and retesting 43.5 for a short entry as I am not looking to take a long here at the moment either.

Intra-day I'm watching X with a descnding triangle with support at $17.50 and it looks bad there.

It's been a good couple of days for technical analysis and low risk high reward setups. These happen every now and then so I have to anticipate that these setups will phase out this week and the market will revert to choppyness. Not watching anything else at the moment and I'm off to the gym.

Update 20:00GMT

RIG flag really following through. Measured move says a drop under $50 coming.

X looking weak. HD forming a base at $18. STLD looks good for low risk entry here at $8 for quick scalp. Something dodgy over at JBLU too.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-05T00:20:00.008Z

Pretty decent day for trading today. Lots of stocks in very clear consolidation ranges, particularly at the moment RIG which is desperately clinging onto $55. For the next few days consider trades short at $55 and loner over a retest of $57.5 as per this chart;

I am also impressed at the continued strength in USD/JPY lately. However for the short term I think the rally is over with 98/.05 the key levels here;

Oil has lots of medium term support but feel it will be extended around $46 with some longer term resistance looking to limit it soon.

In the shorter term this was my best trade of the day. Bit of an ascending wedge starting to form just now in the close so let's see if we top out tomorrow.

For those that caught it, HD at $19.3 was a nice short even though it bounced about 7 cents higher than I expected. I hold 250 of these overnight at $19.26. I would really have liked to close out before close but I was away without setting a limit. Watch HD for a rally tomorrow based on 123 S move with moving average support. Think there are a lot of shorts here.

And this is why I have to anticipate a bounce tomorrow. Dangerous candle at dangerous support levels. Although on closer inspection I could be ok.

Got gold wrong a few times today, the only solid entry today was a 123 S move at 922 resistance - the rest was untradable.

Pretty comprehensive summary of my trading day.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-03-03T15:08:00.005Z

Poor start to the day for my paper account, was caught at the open on commodities shorts which retrospectively were too volatile into the bell.

Nice trade in USD/JPY though, was waiting for it to break 98 and it did so with a pennant formation and my entry was more or less parfait as the French say.

Here is what I was wanting to trade on the longer term with USD/JPY. More often than not these moves occur overnight in the forex markets and I missed it. Nice horizontal retest of the wedge breakout price for the entry supported by the moving averages. Nice trade if you can catch it!

Currently short crude (/QM) on a bear flag setup, feel I may have entered too soon. Stops are quite tight too so we'll see how this one works out.

Nothing else catching my eye at the moment.

Update 16:40GMT

Crude flag setup following through nicely of the 20EMA. Pretty easy trade. Technical target is 39.5 but I'm trailing a stop tightly to guard against any sudden rallies. Currently 40.125 as this chart is now 5 minutes old.

Quick trade on a reversal candlestick pattern at the 20EMA on JBLU at $3.16 too for a quick scalp that I should have held for another .10 at least.

Update 19:00 GMT

Spectacularly boring afternoon. Only action I caught was a no-brained gap closing short on PFE at $12.20 and rode it down for 30 cents. Crude flag really followed through quite nicely with lows at 39.5 - it's just mucked about since some reversal candles and I don't see it doing anything into close.

On the FX front USD/JPY is forming a big pennant formation but I'm not convinced on it's strength, especially with some substancial recent overhead resistance in the 98.5 area.

And to close, this is how the crude trade turned out, nearly perfect but not quite - lows were about .039 points off the target lol;

[HAPPY BIRTHDAY]

2009-03-02T12:26:00.002Z

The Student Loan Ranger blog is one year old today!

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART VI]

2009-03-02T12:17:00.003Z

Recession scalping and the lack of confidence era.

A trader in this market had to be extremely quick with entries and exits, and had to constantly manage their positions to make anything of it. For a relatively new trader this period was very frustrating and led to me taking a long break out of the markets until something turned for the better (or became easier) on a technical level.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/07/week-ahead.html the first post and a vague guide to what i would be trading in the future. This post marks the end of the crystal balling/wrap up era.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/07/intra-day-action_15.html at this point I am nearly all off the UK market. This post also takes note of what i now know is pair trading. At this point i wasn’t aware of the term or it’s implications. This is right around the time of the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac breakdown and the insane oil bubble.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/intra-day-action_07.html a landmark 100th post featuring some nice intra-day analysis of an AA trade I made. I continue to sell out early to this day.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/weekly-round-up.html An evolution from manual technical analysis trading to automatic systematic approaches was explored in this post, which I regard as very high quality and maybe one of the best on trading I’ve made

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/intra-day-action_11.html Continued to analyse automated systems, and by this point I am regularly scalping the US market with little attention to anything in Europe. This was perhaps the best move I made during this time. The UK markets are s*** just in case you didn’t already know!

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/intra-day-action_12.html Early signs here that my trading was struggling in this environment. In hindsight my risk tolerance was too low and the setups I traded were on too short a timeframe.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/intra-day-action_13.html the final straw for UK stocks as I make the final decision to cut them out of my trading plans.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/temper-temper.html This post was a huge turning point for me. The market was nuts, and I was still trading and taking hits on bad setups. My exposure was too high and my tolerance too low. After 3 back to back losers I hit the wall in the room and broke my hand. I chilled out a lot more after this and began to take a back seat, making trades here and there on better setups.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/intra-day-action_26.html trading errors still in my game as I adjust to being back at college full time.

The following post at http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/intra-day-action_27.html continued to make me low on confidence. I was too scared to lose money that I kept missing out on making money. This is a serious problem for any trader. My current trading rules mean that trading like this is no longer an issue.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/crystal-balling-sep-1st-5th.html The UK market and crystal balling make a brief comeback after I contemplate a reversal to swing trading. For a while, charts were a little calmer as they consolidated. However a second major wave of fear hit the market shortly after, and 3 times as worse as it was before.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-27T18:01:00.004Z

That's a week without a post. Been papering the markets past few days, doing quite well. Tending to trade gold and crude futures and a lot of JPM, POT, RIG, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and a couple of random stocks like KFT and TYC. Basically just typing in random tickers and taking it from there, it's quite fruitful as my eye is really in at the moment so I can tell quickly if there is a trade on or not. Setting a lot of alerts and using limit orders to scale in is working quite nicely too.

RIG is a powerhouse at the moment, has done nothing but climb all day as crude formed a nice base earlier. If it takes out $63 it will look pretty decent on the daily. This trade has been a long time in the making but there have been countless entry signals over all the timeframes I check out.

Current range for RIG at the moment is $63-$55. Looking for a break over this consolidation range a solid supportive base to form around $63.

Chart looks promising with a pullback today to the crossing moving averages. Hopefully we keep going.

Being in scalp mode for the past few weeks has really sharpened my brain up, and I'm doing a good job of keeping my profit loss ratio per trade at around $5:$1.

Also this week I got a BlackBerry Storm. They are highly recommended and I I'll maybe buy some RIMM soon. It does almost anything. I was gonna buy a new iPod, always wanted SatNav and everything else that goes with it. Free unlimited texts and mobile internet at £5 less per month than my current pay as you go rate. Value.

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART V]

2009-02-21T20:26:00.003Z

This period was when the credit crunch really took effect on the markets and the volatility was just insane. This was a horrifically difficult period to trade, especially for a newcomer like me. A more experienced trader would have interpreted what I was thinking as a very easy hint to take all their money out of the market, or open shorts all over the place.

Credit crunch era

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/06/trading-breakdowns.html harmless post on meltdowns, i should have realised that this was the ‘credit crisis’ really beginning to kick in here in mid June. I had closed my III account around this time on the back of some ridiculous let downs. If I was a more experienced trader, I would have pulled all my money from the market here – or shorted SPY long term. I wasn’t and I didn’t.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VUtY-2LMgqY/SFVugx7A70I/AAAAAAAAAW8/wGT9WYLZC6o/s400/cball2.gif crystal balling logo first used mid June.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/06/weekly-round-up_20.html things really starting to meltdown in a post where the round up logo was first used.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/06/crystal-balling-june-23rd-27th.html Judging by this post, I would say that the credit crisis officially and very suddenly took effect on the short term markets between June 15th-23rd.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/06/crystal-balling-june-30th-july-4th.html this post was the first to feature an alert section for stocks of a lesser quality setup, and involves the first stock rotation programme on my watchlist.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/07/intra-day-action_09.html credit crisis affects markets so much I stop trading for a week, reliability of setups was non existant at this point and I was frequently stopped out of trades very quickly. It was in this week that I began my relationship with cmc.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-20T18:22:00.002Z

Not much time watching today, a few quickies. Making the paper money on FX today.

Check this for a bull flag on EURUSD!

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-17T14:29:00.000Z

Hitting the gym this afternoon. US market is gonna get humped today I think. SP given up 800, huge gaps across the board.

Who's turn is it to go bust next?

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART IV]

2009-02-16T15:46:00.002Z

This week features a classic period in the TSLR blog when charts were clean, and swing setups were 'safe' - The Vintage TA era.

At this point in time, stocks were breaking out to the upside. It was April-June 2008 and the credit crisis was yet to show it’s true hand. The setups were very very clean, and would go either way quite predictably after triggering certain price levels.

I would give breakout/breakdown figures, measured moves, explanations of the entire trade right down to the pence to take profit or to cut losses. Judging by my records and a few of the posts, I estimate my success rate of calls during this period at over 75% based on trigger points.

I was really struggling to put the trades on though, which made me miss a huge amount of money making opportunities due to me lacking the mental edge in trading. These remain the most in depth and accurate posts since I became The Student Loan Ranger.

This eye of the storm period didn't last long but I got some great trades from it.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/weekly-round-up_17.html one of many highly accurate weekly roundup posts.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/crystal-balling-may-27th-30th.html HELLS YES

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/weekly-round-up_30.html first roundup to really analyse my market calls. I was ridiculously good at making the calls in this market, but i really struggled to trade them. A glimpse into my success rate at that time.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/crystal-balling-june-2nd-6th.html I used to have so much time to do this! This post marks the exact point I started tracking US stocks. I tracked CIEN anticipating a long, but with stops and shorts at 29.15. CIEN was trading at under $20 a few weeks later, and went as low as $5 in December.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-13T15:57:00.003Z

RIG continuing to move as expected. After a nice lower volume pullback it's bounced off the 50EMA on a double day, double bottom. Confirming the breakout on the intra-day was a nice wedge then triangle breakout. I would really like to see this get to +$70 as I predicted a last week. Hopefully we get some good volume today with continuation on monday.

POT moving in similar fashion to RIG. Broke an intra-day ascending triangle today and the daily looks nice at the moves off $80 yesterday. Can't remember if I mentioned this or not the other day but the setup was a nice bull flag into a golden cross and support area - strong bull entry at $80 would've been great.

I said MOS looked extended at $45 and it was, but check this out for a prime entry yesterday. Setup is a 123 with golden cross supporting on declining volume pullback. Nice!

Paper traded my TOS account yesterday and did well to get $71 out of RIG, $100 on X, $180 on AUD/USD and 2 very small losers in AA and AAPL. I also traded the /ESH9 futures and was stopped out for like -$200 in 60 seconds. That was on 2 contracts, I dare say I have a lot to read up on when it comes to futures and the risk management involved therein.

Gonna watch the markets for a bit longer today, would like to see a move on RIG off $60.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-11T22:20:00.002Z

Nice jump off the 50EMA on RIG today. Market sold off into some support ranges for some of the stocks I'm watching. X and MOS selling off as predicted.

Started watching gold and crude futures. Interestingly oil is at new lows, but the price at the pump has been rising slowly the past few weeks - let's see a correction please. Gold formed a nice long bullflag consolidation range which I traded on the paper account. $940 support going into close.

I have college Wed/Thu/Fri in the afternoons which will hamper my trading and watching so I'll be looking to trade the rallies that happen around 6pm my time.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-09T21:29:00.003Z

Couple of interesting charts to look at today.

I've spent a lot of time watching RIG today, and it continued nicely along it's merry way today, despite some resistance in the $62 region. A nice jump up on the morning let to an inevitable pullback to yesterdays high of $60 which provided yet another entry point.

RIG and the market as a whole closed some way off their highs today, and after 4 straight days on buyers in RIG, I have to anticipate some kind of pull back. If $60 holds, great - but more realistically I am still checking out $58. I'm not entirely sure I like this candlestick, kind of a shooting star with sellers really taking control into the close. Hopefully RIG can show some relative strength and suffer only a slight pull back into either $58 or the 50EMA. I anticipate a golden cross in the 20/50EMAs and some movement north for Transocean.

I don't really check V out but it caught my eye today. Lately there have been two gap ups on good volume into an overhead resistance range. Today we saw some definitive overhead resistance on the intra-day chart at about $56.20 which led to V closing with a spinning top.

I think if this takes out todays low tomorrow ($54.50) then we can expect a small volume drop to the 20/50EMA range which looks pretty good right now.

In a bad day for metals, X hit the 50ema and medium term downward trendline and sold off into another spinning top. I was surprised at the rally here last week, as steel stocks for me just ain't gonna cut it in a recession. Whether or not this consolidates here and forms a flag with support at the 20EMA remains to be seen, but I am bearish.

Just checked out MOS too, looks very extended at $45 and I would like to buy this at $40.

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART III]

2009-02-09T20:52:00.003Z

BONUS PULLOUT CENTRE FOLD - Broker Blowups!

A slightly smaller installment in the series as I take time out from chronological order and focus on my battles with brokers, data feeds and software.

Anyone who is based in the UK that trades without a US broker, data feed or US standard charting package will know the difficulties involved in getting good, reliable, malleable data. To any would be traders sitting in the snow in Wigan thinking "You know what, I'm gonna start trading" - let me burst your bubble. Don't bother with the UK. Ever. I say it nearly every post at the moment.. just don't even waste your time.

The UK market is a joke. Anything that is a joke can't be taken seriously. You want UK based charting software? No. You want free level 2 data? No. You want direct access software? No. You want a reliable broker who executes your order quickly and at your price? No. You want cheap commissions? No. You want to pay 0.5% stamp duty on every share purchase? Yes!

Anyway. I've gone through 2 brokers and 2 different data sources and software packages. And both are a big old pile of

By reading this short post you can clearly see the pain and anguish I went through dealing with anything even remotely linked to Britain and trading. Note to reader: UK and trading don't mix. It is not in our mentality to be successful - which is barely the surface of the problem with the UK stock market.

Enjoy the blow-ups because I didn't!

----

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/i-hate-iii.html First rant at unreliability of broker and UK market data.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/06/end-of-iiicouk.html First broker ‘blow-up’. Apparently limit orders don't exist with UK brokers!

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/06/oh-come-on-this-is-getting-ridiculous.html Second ‘blow-up’ shortly after featuring the infamous ‘soldier gunning iii’ photo that remains on the blog today. I closed the account shortly after this ‘third strike’. This post still makes me laugh.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/08/raging.html A policy change from CMC meant I was now being charged commissions without notice, which cost me a heap. Start of the long and painful downfall of CMC. I remember I was absolutely livid with them.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/10/here.html beginning to lose faith in CMC by September

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/horror-and-humour.html A very funny montage of pain after being intentionally locked out of a forex trade begins a 24 period of anger towards CMC. I closed the account that night as CMC, like III before it, ‘third striked’ me.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2009/01/more-pain.html The account with CMC is closed after 2 weeks of the ‘new wave’ of trading. Despite losing maybe only 1.5% of the account value in this period, their crapness could no longer be tolerated, and they join III in the pile of doom.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VUtY-2LMgqY/SYD1FSx8keI/AAAAAAAAA90/ibmipYCFO6A/s400/lol.png This poster severs all links with the UK market and UK based financial information/brokerage companies as I sign up for think or swim. All data and execution is now stateside.

------

Post-script thoughts;

Let me just mention something here about US/UK companies, products etc related to trading.

UK companies/services

iii.co.uk - £10 commission each way plus stamp duty. Delayed data on delayed portfolio. No software. No limit orders. Stop losses never closed at price. Atrocious/Horrendous/Badword dealing team.

CMC markets - bucket shop, intentionally closed out of platform. Unreliable. Awful customer service. Terrible charting. No deal from charts. Problems getting money out, no problem getting it in. Posh clueless idiot on other end of phone all the time.

Quotestream L2 service. This was basically just market depth. The charting was not at all interactive. No line drawing ability, no studies, could not even change moving averages. £20 a month. Unversatile and unreliable sh*t.

ADVFN L2 service. Bit more in depth. Web based java platform. Only time and sales (delayed too) for US stocks. Forums full of UK trading newbs and idiots. £35 a month! Crap charting. You also had to cancel 2 months in advance otherwise they charged for part month and the next too.

US companies/services

Prorealtime charting package. Free end of day downloadable java based program with all the studies you could ever want. Although pricey for real time data, it's better than anything to come out of Britain. Yes I'll say again, it's free.

Quotetracker. Excellent and free charting package (requires data feed). Interestingly they cite ADVFN UK as a compatible source - but ADVFN are unaware of this and recommend using their own java charts lol. I would be saying "hell yes you can use our feed" given that QT is the number one port of call for beginner chartists. They would make a fortune of UK traders signing up for their feed solely for QT. But no... they're idiots.

IQFeed data source. Account set up instantly. $30 for NYSE, NASDAQ, CME live data - equities, internals, etfs etc. Remarkably reliable, efficient and high quality data service. Cancelled this because I don't need it. Email response within an hour saying it wasn't a problem, and no more payments will be taken from me and I get to use it for another 3 weeks. Customer service and product quality were obviously what they were going for. Money is what a UK company goes for, and they sure make it obvious.

Think or Swim brokerage and platform. Although not full set up, the application process was simple and quick and the software is absolutely superb. We're talking $1 or $2 commission total in/out, FREE live real time data including ETFs, indices, equities, futures, options, forex, internals etc. Can more or less deal direct from charts and platform includes an absolute raft of extras and order types. Good customer service so far too.

Now after reading that - can you tell the difference in quality? Everything UK based is garbage because there is no competition. If I programmed a charting package that could link to xyz (I don't even know any UK brokerages anymore) I would dominate that market like nobodies business, except My Own Ltd.

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART II]

2009-02-08T18:28:00.002Z

Level 2/TA era still poisoned with fundamentals and trading errors

This part links to a series of posts I made beginning with me just learning about technical analysis. At this point I was trading UK stocks on a swing basis, but still favoured fundamental approaches to my stock picking rather than purely TA. This period lasted about 6 weeks as I developed the new skills and there was a good mix of wins and losses. After that and to the back section of this post I got quite good at making calls based on technical analysis and my trading picked up.

This era also saw the start of my weekly Crystal Balling and Roundup posts and also the introduction of some sort of risk management to my trading. At around this point I began to lower my risk tolerance after some heavy blows at the start of my career.

Towards the end of this I had my first big win trading SOLA. After that (and in the next section) I went on a nice run of swing trades in a series of stocks I don't care about any more.

-----

“I do like TA but I just think it has to back it up with either strong balance sheets, good products, contract wins or a booming sector” Not anymore, I don't even care what the name of the company is lol.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/t.html first post about TA – BLVN was a blatant bearish wedge in retrospect.

“I watched quite a lot of videos last night on technical analysis - mostly from informedtrades.com and alphatrades.net. They were very interesting and insightful, and at the moment I'm a little shocked at my earlier trading tactics” NOW we’re talking! I remember this period, and was puzzled at why it took me so long to find technical analysis. I got really into it about here.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/down-like-clown.html The start of what would then become “crystal balling”

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/house-rules.html developed first set of trading rules but also features a potential dangerous love affair with CFDs. I can’t really remember if I stuck to these rules or not. I think I cut my loss on SEO around this point.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/crystal-balling-april-14th-18th.html first official crystal balling post featured TATA, BGC, LONM.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/afternoon-nap.html first intra-day action post with an early indication I was wearing thin of trading the uk market

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/disciplinary.html first post realising the mental demands of trading, in particular discipline and insight into overtrading. This was a bit of a wake up call.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/fridays-bell-end-of-week.html Applying TA to some stocks, but clearly lacking the skills and knowledge about risk:reward, entry and exit, measured moves, volume analysis, sector analysis. I hadn’t learned enough about the game to be making the kind of trades I was calling.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/weekly-round-up.html first weekly roundup post and beginning of excel programming relationship. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VUtY-2LMgqY/SAneb2-16uI/AAAAAAAAAFI/BhPvyd41SII/s1600-h/port.bmp not bad for week one really.

Funniest part of that post “BKG is a strong buy for me at the moment, nuff said” The chart imploded and crashed a few days later.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/crystal-balling-21st-to-25th-april.html stellar call on AAL. Amazingly accurate on BP too. The very first glimpse of risk management with the statement “but I would use some very very tight stops at about 457 just in case it doesn't want to reverse”. I should have looked into this sentence a lot more carefully, it’s simple but says so much about risk management.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/weekly-round-up_26.html ridiculously prophetic calls on bottoming price levels of NG. and ADM. Beginning to become very consistant at calling trade entries and TA.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/crystal-balling-april-28th-may-2nd.html for the first time, crystal balling includes specific details on the trade entries, with target prices. However, at this time stops were not included.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/04/midweek-wrap_30.html Anti Britian and the change in perception towards the UK market is confirmed in this post. I still believe every part of this rant.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/pattern-spotting.html me excelling at TA and developing new ideas. This pattern was pretty predominant for a while, though I haven’t seen it lately. I am unaware if this pattern exists in any textbook or is well known.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/crystal-balling-may-6th-may-9th.html crystal balling finally features stop loss limits. All analysis on this post was superb, with all targets hit. WTN was one of the biggest moves I ever anticipated, moving nearly 140% in the next 2 weeks.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/crystal-balling-may-12th-may-17th.html i am beginning to incorporate measured moves into my stock analysis. This post really shows the start of my love affair with SOLA, the best stock ever! Looking back I was really beginning to get great at TA, however it was mostly due to the charts at the time. Swing trading TA is significantly harder these days, given that most charts look like Victoria falls dropping into a sea of blood.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_VUtY-2LMgqY/SCmGhm7cYiI/AAAAAAAAAJ4/O2nvVH0iUjU/s400/sola.gif Is this not laughable? This is the standard of charting you can expect to find in the UK. No interaction, no adjusting timescale, no dealing from charts, no indicators or studies. I used to pay £20 a month for this garbage! Now I get a service about 100 times better for nothing!

From time to time I notice I get visitors coming to my blog from google, having searched for “ADVFN versus QuoteStream”. If you have come here after typing that and have come across this post; here is my advice: Do not sign up for Quotestream or ADVFN – both are utter garbage and a complete waste of time. Do not trade the UK markets full stop. Spent some time learning TA, get some money together (>£3500) and open a US broker account with ‘Interactive Brokers’ or ‘Think or Swim’. You get this information for free and trust me, it’s at least 100 times better.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/05/intra-day-action.html perfect trading of SOLA and my first big win.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-06T19:03:00.003Z

Breakout on RIG today after a great day yesterday. Exercise caution in this market as the bottom could fall out at any point. My targets are still as per my post a few days ago >~$70.

RIG DAILY

RIG 30MIN PAST 2 AND A BIT DAYS

Note the buying here. $60 a sticky point at the moment, looking for a pullback into close and support at $58 for a great entry price.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-02-05T14:19:00.005Z

Might as well watch some charts today to alleviate the boredom.

From my post the other day, $57 looks like the level RIG needs to break. $57.25 to be exact. It bounced hard off this price (which was the 50EMA on the daily) as predicted. However there was a decent amount of buying yesterday so watch RIG today to see what happens. I would like to see it hold $54.50 today.

I also cite the 3rd major wave of fear in the past year here, with a total meltdown on BAC in the last few days.

Internals at the bell are extremely bearish with $DECN at 1500 and $ADVN at 590. $TRIN over 1.4. Let's see some selling.

Update 15mins into session:
RIG dropped $54.50, market not too healthy and is predictably going for the 09:50 reversal. Watching for some action here and support on RIG at 20EMA daily chart at $53.25

Update 17:10 (12:10 US)
RIG on the RUN today. Very nice intra-day chart with a couple of good entry points. She's sitting at $57 again right now so I'm waiting to see what happens here. Also at the 50EMA on the daily again. Lots of buyers today after a poor opening.

[YEAR IN THE LIFE - PART I]

2009-02-05T10:48:00.003Z

This is part 1 of a year in the life of a beginner trader. Look for updates every week until TSLR celebrates a year at the helm of this blog. This is just too funny, I can't believe how stupid I was when I started doing this..

I can do nothing here but cut and paste a section of my first post. Anything highlighted, in bold or in large text represents a ridiculous statement that makes me cringe. This period lasted about 4-5 weeks and I lost a significant amount on just 2 trades. My first trade was a winner though!

"Have you read the report man!?" TSLRs Fundamental Analysis Era.

“Trade 1
Severfield-rowen UK
Absolute rock solid fundamentals, and just had a huge crash for no real reason except profits are a slight below expectations. Decent dividends too but haven’t decided on whether to keep going on that. I bought 315 shares at 2.932. I was going to buy at 2.652 but my broker account wasn’t open :( boo hoo etc

That red dot is where I got in. My target price for a £100 profit is 330p, but with it’s current momentum and rises despite small volumes, I expect this stock to see little to no resistance until the 400p mark, when it hits 400 I will make £321 (34%) profit. However the timeline for this could be long and I have some exciting prospects on my watchlist such as Coal of Africa, Desire Petroleum and Rift Oil. This share was a great value buy and it could go back up to 500 longer term for £636 profit, but holding too long isn’t what I want with the bulk of my loan.

I purchased 115 shares in The Royal Bank of Scotland at 400p. Reasons being that this is one hell of a company. They’re about to announce record profits, Qatari investment rumours and a decent dividend date in the not too distant future. The banking sector took a huge kick in the nuts, well, the whole FTSE took a huge kick in the nuts in Jan so this was a great opporchancity to snap up a solid company with good ratios on the cheap.

It was on my watch list with SFR and BARC for my first pick but opted for SFR looking for money gain over percentage which sounds crazy but hey. I intend to hold this long long term so don’t expect much news on this. Anyway my target for this is 550p for £164 profit within the year, but I may hold until I’m an old man. My SFR money etc is for the real gains.”

“RBS on the other hand announced £10 billion profits up 10% on last year and a sizable dividend increase – but it closed down -1.26%. Funny old world. “ The earliest sign the banking sector was in serious trouble.

“US markets down again on Friedegg so some pessimism surrounding the opening bell on Monday, particularly for RBS. That’s the general consensus, but in my opinion RBS will bounce back up over 4. I hope. Either that or it will find support at 360. But hey, ex-div on Wednesday so that’ll be £25 into the profits for the year.”
If the market was bearish and RBS looked bad, then why did I keep holding it? Also I was exposing myself to 40p downside for 10p upside. That dividend was worth SFA!

“I’m expecting SFR to really rally this next week. I am extremely tempted to sell out at my original target of 330p, but targets are for losers. “
This remains possibly the dumbest thing I have ever said in my life.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/03/media-and-market.html
Why did I not see the global financial crisis while writing this post!?

“SFR is a bee-in-bonnet scenario. It just climbs all day, hits 315 then closes at just over 304.”
Somehow I did not realise that this concept was support and resistance.

http://thestudentloanranger.blogspot.com/2008/03/road-to-recovery.html
Beginning to question the trades i’ve made, but remain in love with first big loser SEO

“SEOs results were out on Friday - no positive movement on the share price though - it's gone down quite a bit. However, looking at the final years results and the interims from last year, their position has significantly changed for the better and it looks like a solid long term investment “
This is the classic beginner mistake, initially a short term trade, SEO is now part of my “long term strategy”. OMG I was bad.

“Excellent surges on Wednesday and Thursday (18%/22%). At it's peak it kissed .9 which represented a decent opportunity to get out for a loss of around £300 - half of what is was on Tuesday.”
This is about the SEO trade, gaining 50% on a position that is already a monster loss is an absolute god send. Why did I not take this!?

Chart evidence

RBS chart from March to now (£4 to £0.10)

There are too many lessons in this portion of text to digest in one paragraph. I don't even know where to start so I won't even bother. But anyone who has ever traded will know exactly what I mean!

Next week: L2 TA III era.

[WINTER IS HERE]

2009-02-05T09:57:00.003Z

Well that's just great. Another day off college, this snow is just insane. The snow was more or less melted, then for a 2 hour spell this morning there was a huge covering of snow that has made it even more unsafe to drive than yesterday.

This webcam is about 3 miles from my place so check out the conditions here: Deeside gliding strip web cam.

No doubt I'll make the first post in my story so far today..

[BOREDOM feat. TA]

2009-02-04T14:00:00.009Z

Well we've got over a foot of snow here today I reckon, and my much anticipated return to college has been put off for another day. I am so bored it's unreal. No college, all mates at work, no trading, crap weather, gym closed, nothing on TV, watched all my DVDs and I've read all my books. The Mens Health I just bought distracted me for all of an hour.

And here is some analysis on an interesting looking stock, RIG.

Yes the World is in recession and the price of oil has slumped dramatically in the past few months. However, in a market that shows consecutive bear signals on nearly every chart, RIG has 3 very bullish signals interlinked with each other over the past 4 months.

First off is a the beat down, which became a falling wedge. These wedges are bullish and often lead to a substantial rally (I see these all the time on 15mins). It is also a reversal pattern. Another reversal pattern is the inverse head and shoulders, the top of which forms the most recent low in RIG at $41.95. A reversal pattern in a bear market, followed by what could turn out to be a continuation pattern in the form of an ascending triangle.

There are a few key prices to watch here, most notably the $57-$58 mark, which is serving as overhead resistance for the ascending triangle. Also, $50 in the shorter term acting as support. The next low would ideally be above $48. Any breakout of $58 on a re-test would be a good long signal, proving it also breaks above and is then supported by the 50EMA which is currently pinning RIG down.

I would like to see this consolidation over the past few days get tighter and then I'll watch for some volume coming in.

Measured moves:

Wedge ~ $83
Triangle ~ $72
IH&S ~$75
200EMA currently at $71.2

I will watch these levels if RIG breaks out.

However, given that this is a market in which many TA patterns simply fail, it is wise to exercise caution here. The price of oil is certainly a lot more stable at the moment, but that is reducing the underlying profits of companies like RIG. The likes of Noble have fallen to prices where the outlying stock is worth less than the actual company for example, and there's no reason why this can't happen to other companies.

Anyway, with good risk measurement in place, I think RIG is a great long on the breakout with stops around $54.

Things to look out for (break signals and entry points):

Moves up off the 20EMA consolidation for a bull flag type setup
Clear break above $58
Volume on the break
Strong bullish candlesticks
A pullback on declining volume to $58 or the 50EMA for entry
Initial targets around $70-$75
Continuation patterns forming after potential run to $70
$85+ targets medium - long term

Post-script edit:
I just realised I'm a month away from my 1 year anniversary as a blogger and market follower. To celebrate this momentous occasion I'm going to feature the most ridiculous things I ever said about the stock market in a series of quotes and chart montages, and a few lessons I've learned along the way. The third paragraph of my first post is possibly the most dumbest naive thing I think I have ever read! I have come a long long way since then.

Edit for later:
OK well I had nothing else on so I wrote an article type post about my year in trading so far. Obviously I can't comment on the coming month, so I will be releasing my chronicles in part issues every Sunday until the 1 year birthday at the start of March.

There are 8 sections (2 a week) and one bonus section (special anniversary pulloutl) that serve as a history of my trading. From the most ridiculous statement I ever made about trading, to my series of broker-blowups - all tales are featured in this candid tell-all biography of The Student Loan Ranger! Loan Ranger... Hoooooooohh! (to Thundercats intro voice).

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-29T15:58:00.004Z

Not really watching the markets a great deal because I'm not trading today. I'm going through the motions of sorting out a trading account with thinkorswim. I'm test driving their platform this afternoon and so far I'm impressed.

This setup is a lot more efficient than running CMC and Quotetracker. Also I'll save $35 a month because I no longer need QT and IQFeed.

Watchlist top on left monitor, internals bottom on right monitor.

Strong opening, looks like the SP is looking to clear 850 cleanly. 860 could be sticky though. Internals are strong featuring bullish continuation patterns. New X support at $32, new BAC support at $7 but I don't trust either, especially BAC.

[COMIC RELIEF CONTINUED]

2009-01-29T00:14:00.000Z

In cinemas near you today!

[MORE PAIN]

2009-01-28T10:53:00.004Z

Is there anything more enjoyable in this World than getting up on a bitterly freezing cold January morning and driving 20 minutes to install your brokers platform on a computer with no history of prior installation (and the client ID files that go with it) - just so you can close out a position that has now exceeded entry risk by over 5 times?

Email me if you know of anything more fun than that. Just so you know GBPUSD has done nothing but rip overnight.

Update:
I have closed the account with CMC. Look back later for a potentially humourous montage featuring the logos of iii.co.uk, CMC markets and the Union Jack and me looking victorious of course.

[HORROR AND HUMOUR]

2009-01-27T23:17:00.002Z

Well I think I am maybe a little bit more composed than I was a few hours ago. Although I don't know if I should still be angry.

Here is an image that summarises how I have been feeling the past few hours, after my platform went awol on me. I cannot connect to the internet when my platform is on, and my platform has an update that needs to install (which I have already done by the way). The update itself stops itself from downloading, meaning I cannot log in.

I have a position open, short GBPUSD and I could be seriously exposed if I can't close it at a loss as the system and everything else cut out as I was placing my stop limit orders. The only websites I can access are Google or it's subsidiaries - including blogger.

Anyway enjoy.

A montage of pain

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-27T12:08:00.012Z

Looking to follow up on yesterdays good day with another consistent trading day. I felt yesterday that I reaped the benefits of focusing on a smaller pool of stocks, and by paying attention on the market internals - which were the basis of my entries.

I did however cash out too soon on CSCO (by .30) and BAC (by .80!), and I also missed a straight forward $3 move in X. I left the market with an hour and a half to go so I could play 5-a-side. I also missed my target in NUE <$38. This looks like selling hard. Today my goal is to ride my winners down with full risk exposure in an attempt to increase my bottom line. Here are the levels I'm watching today:

BAC - $6, $6.98, $5.40, $6.40
X - <$29, $32, $30.50
CSCO - $16, $16.50, $15.40, $15
NUE - Continuation moves under $38
CME - $155, $175
RIG - I won't trade it, but it looks like $51 is a key level in the short term.

CSCO chart, 30min.

After yesterday, I am extremely bearish on CME BAC NUE and X. CSCO showed good relative strength at times, and if anything I'm watching is going to go up today I think it will be CSCO. If CME drops $155 and X drops $29 clearly, then these should decline rapidly.

Overnight the 500 climbed steadily and looks like it's resting around 835. 800~850 remains the range in the short term. Any moves out of this will provide a spark for a take off or crash landing.

Forex market technical analysis:

EURJPY Really followed through the inverse head and shoulders formation on the hourly chart which had a measured move of 119.5. This level was hit precisely and the next level of support I'm looking for on retracement is 117.

EURJPY chart, 60min.

GBPUSD has surged surprisingly well off yesterdays double bottom and broke through 1.4. I am looking to enter long on a pullback to 1.40 as this represents new support. Next resistance 1.45

GBPUSD chart, 60min.

EURUSD did well yesterday as the dollar weakened. Broke the short term downtrend and moved from 1.30580 to 1.33271. I am awaiting a pullback to support at 1.30500.

EURUSD chart, 60min.

GBPAUD has also broke short term down trend as it looks hit resistance at 2.1450. The chart is fairly dull here, just watch for that resistance level.

Updates and charts to follow intra-day.

Update 13:45 (08:45US)
Interesting pre market here. X jumped to $33 but has settled back below $32. Little bit of a gap in BAC currently $6.35. CSCO tapped $16.50 before pulling back sharply. No red on the screen yet although NUE is dicing with death.

Market about to open update
Something fishy going on here. Gapping up here quite a bit, most stocks at resistance levels. Looking for a sell off.

Update 15:24 (10:24US)
Choppy morning. Went long CSCO on breakout retracement at $16.51, stopped out for .47 - was a nice exit as it sold to .29. Currently back up at $16.5 but market looking weak and confused. Watching to enter X at $32.2.

BAC showing relative strength in tight consolidation range.

Update 17:11(12:11US)
Rerally choppy today. Internals keep ranging in tight channels. CSCO showed some balls with a nice run to $16.90 without me in the seat. BAC broke range above $6.4 but hasn't done anything to make me want to trade it.

I'm short GBPAUD and long EURJPY as per my TA from earlier. Both positions winners at the moment.

Waiting for a reveral around 18:20 my time.

Update 20:03(I don't care what time US)
A flake causes a snowball which causes an avalanche. That is currently my sentiment towards everything right at this second. A phone call. A dodgy cable. Disconnected. Broker platform crash. FX platform crash. Quotetracker crash. Data source crash. Internet only working for Google websites (including this).

I'm in an FX trade right now and I have no idea how much I'm losing because I can't connect to anything. It's all tits up and I'm very pissed off at the moment. All because of a stupid damn cable that the owner just will not fix.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-26T11:41:00.012Z

Ok it's 12 hours since that FX trade, and despite closing it this morning I'll start a new intra-day post. Looks like I caught a nice exit on the GBPUSD short, here is the chart, I'm seeing a basing at this price and will look for breaks out of this consolidation range;

I am also watching a descending triangle in the S&P with support at 800. Todays resistance around the 835 mark.

As I said yesterday, today I will be watching CSCO CME NUE X and BAC.

For some entertainment relief, check out this Pantene shampoo advert featuring Mylene Klass, and then for your consideration, Daft Punks 'Aerodynamic' video.

Updates to follow during the day

Update 14:00 (09:00US)
Before the bell we have BAC opening strongly with pre-market prices around $6.50. I will look to enter long at around $6.30 depending on internals and if the 500 breaks this descending triangle. CSCO mid-ranging at $15.85 looking to short or go long at $16 depending on market again. X mid-range, watching the key levels at $32, $29 and $31 here.

EURJPY breaking long from an inverse head and shoulders on the hourly chart. EURUSD hitting resistance around 1.309. 1.38 the key level on GBPUSD today.

Nothing chartworthly until the bell.

Update 14:43 (09:44US)
Strong opening, BAC ripping to $6.83, CSCO at $16.25. All green on the screen. X lagging a little and is approaching $32 into the 09:50 reversal period. Internals weakening. Looking for pullback for entries.

Update 16:00 (11:00US)
Just scalped out a nice trade in BAC. Internals were weakening with bearish continuation patterns while BAC began to top out at gap resistance circa $6.98. I was hesistant to short given it went to highs 3 bars in a row, then came 3 consecutive lower highs and some sellers. Shorted at $6.90 with cover at $6.81 for +$0.09. Nice exit as it has bounced off up there on the 20EMA with internals showing early reversal patterns.

Lots of buyers at $6.84/84 today so watch that level on further pullbacks. Should really have added to my position on double top retest of $6.90 but started blogging instead. Price is now $6.75 so there was more to be made, but I'm happy with the outcome.

Update 16:30 (11:30US)
CSCO hit support and resistance level at $16.50 and has dropped off .20c so far. Missed the trade by focusing too much on BAC. Internally there is an ascending triangle on TRIN with established downtrend in advancers and sellers in the top volume stocks. Which means we will probably see a violent surge or casual decline.

Hesistant to take more positions until the 500 is a little more decisive and some leaders break their consolidation ranges.

EUR showing good strength against JPY and USD.

Update 17:20(12:17US)
Snooze central here. Everything going sideways in 5 cent channels. Will wait for post lunch action. Would like to short CSCO at $16.50 or long at $16.

Listening to 'Mirrored' by Battles this afternoon. Pretty decent elevator/trading music.

Update 18:15(13:15US)
Caught a nice short time trade in CSCO at last. Looked like $6.45 was going to be the best price for a short so filled there with a stop at $6.523. Rode it down to $6.30 intraday support area for an exit of +$0.15.

CSCO has shown great relative strength today, but with severley weakening internals and the rest of the market getting pulled down, it was a nice small risk place to short. Ideally should have held with limit fill at $16.05 but we'll see how the day pans out. Still feels like I'm taking things off the table too quickly.

BAC really struggling here, and I may look for entry at $6.30 long. X now under $30, would like £29 flat for long.

Market normally rallies up/down at 18:30 so waiting for that while listening to Daft Punks Alive 2007 CD loudly and with intent to rave.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-25T23:06:00.003Z

It's late Sunday night and I've been doing some more TA. I spent quite a bit of time watching the FX markets now, trading off a demo account at FXCM.

Anyway been watching GBP/USD and have shorted on a nice technical setup and I'm currently up a decent amount so will think about closing out before I go to bed. 24 year lows on the pound is too good an opportunity.

Also noticed a delay from CMC on the FX spot prices so will look into potential exploits. I think it's probably because the desks aren't manned at this hour.

FXCM top, CMC bottom. Taken at same time.

Update (10 mins later)

Wow!

Well I barely clicked post before I closed out that trade, what a sensational drop that was. I've exited after 10 minutes for +£86.78 net of a £10k position

Setup, entry and exit:

Shorted at 1.3705 with cover at 1.3587. Double tops at the 200EMA are amongst the best setups in this market. As I write this GBPUSD is at 1.3562/1.3567 and going down which means I could have made quite a bit more. Either way when a trade goes so quickly in your favour there's no harm in taking a sizeable profit, especially when you're about to go to bed. I'll sleep well tonight.

[WEEK AHEAD]

2009-01-25T19:24:00.005Z

Just a couple of tickers to keep an eye on this week - CSCO NUE CME. I'll also be watching BAC and X as these have become my favourites for TA intra-day.

Cisco - CSCO
Watching this as a short term trade. $15 has held well the past 4 days in the face of some heavy selling. Depending on how the market goes in the early stages of next week, you could catch some nice trades at $15 or $16. I would be long over $16 (short depending on internals and price action) and short under $15 (long depending on internals and price action). These either way setups are good to have leading into the week. I remain bearish on everything though.

Nucor - NUE
Short term resistance at $43 and gap price at $37.5. That's really what I'm using to trade this. After double topping at 200EMA at $47.5 I am bearish with targets around $33.5. A drop over the gap price on volume would signal a nice entry as would entries off $43.

CME Group - CME
Support and resistance levels at $235r $190r $175r $160s. Watching a descending channel in shorter time frames with 3 times tested support around $160. I am bearish but open to change. Looking to trade the support and resistance bands here, otherwise a short under $155 on volume.

BAC prices this week
Resistance $6.2
Support $5.4
Key levels $6.02, $5.85-5.95.

X prices this week
Resistance $33.5
Support $29
Key levels $32, $31

Retests at these levels a good opportunity to enter trades. Will not be watching any other stocks this week, however I do have an alert set on Coke (KO) at $41 for a range trade opportunity to $47.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-20T16:23:00.000Z

Getting humped today so pulling the plug. Lost out straight off the bat on an Alcoa trade that was wrongly position due to a typo on my risk calculator. So that ended up being nearly a $100 loser after costs which is simply unacceptable.

Elsewhere the rest of the stocks are just whipping everywhere despite a relatively calm decline in the indices. Not a day to be trading.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-19T15:44:00.003Z

This is what happens when you swing from a record profit, to a record loss in 12 months. This is also what happens when shareholder equity is eliminated and the Goverment controls 70% of one of the biggest banks in the World:

PS this drop is from this morning only. You could buy this for 45p on Friday afternoon, it has dropped 70% today! Personally I am delighted at this drop as this is what the UK stock market deserves for being illiquid and rigged. Reminds me of the FNM FRE collapses. CMC were clearly not chuffed with this mornings volatility, and increased their spread from about .1p to over 1p at one point - a 10% spread on the UKs most traded stock - LOL! No wonder I don't trade UK stocks.

Elsewhere the FTSE gave up 4100, then 4080 and is currently thinking about dropping to 4000. S&P has been slow today as predicted, and has sold to 840.

Update 5 min later:
CMC spread went to 33% and RBS has been suspended. Oh dear!

[EXCEL PROGRAMMING]

2009-01-18T19:02:00.003Z

I have just spent the past while programming another add on to my Excel trade management system. I'm trying to find some info on using the integrated VB program to make part of my spreadsheet an executable file. It would save resources on my comp by having a small app running instead of starting up (or keeping up) Excel to calculate the numbers. I'm pretty decent with mental arithmetic as it is but this would just make it a little bit more mechanical for me and add more discipline to my game;

Anyway it's just a little risk reward calculator that works out my size and whether I should take the trade based on targets and stops. When I enter a trade retrospectively using the form it does this, but I don't want to have to enter and then delete those values. I have added my commission costs as part of the risk - however these are variable, and for calculation purposes are at the top end of what I would be paying for around $5000 worth of stock.

For those interested in aesthetics I have redesigned the entry form. It's a lot cleaner cut and more inspiring given that it features a made up logo of a made up company that I designed. Cool eh? I'm sure most traders don't care about that, but it's something I'm into.

Do they get The Big Issue in the States? If not you won't understand the joke in the title bar added for humour.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-16T21:43:00.005Z

College was my priority today so I didn't get to sit down till about 5pm GMT. Backfilling took ages too. Anyway the day was quite choppy, BAC and C getting slain again. The volume on these two was immense with almost about a billion going through the system in the past 2 days.

Anyway I had one trade, and it was in BAC. As I sat I noticed a basing pattern with the days low at $7 exactly which was tested 5 times on the 5min charts.

There was a significant amount of buying at this level. Anyway it started to form a wedge, and as the internals strengthened and the market started to move, it broke the wedge and I took an entry at $7.18. I covered a little later at $7.31 for +$0.13. Could have held on for double the profits but no regrets about the trade. Exit ended being alright as the sellers took control into the close of $7.15.

Didn't really watch anything else today. Most of the others ground up with chop.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-15T11:35:00.007Z

Sell sell sell. That's the word. The lustre of the new year has worn off and the recession continues to weigh heavy on the markets. Quite a lot of stuff happening this morning.

UK sold off heavy after everyone and their gran was sacked from their jobs yesterday. Steve Jobs is stepping down at AAPL on health fears so I expect further drops there. USO starting to look like it might base and run a bit so I'll keep an eye on oils today. Bank of America getting a heap of dough from Uncle Sam. And the stock that first caught my eye in the US markets, Ciena (CIEN) is looking like a decent technical setup at the moment.

OK pre-market AAPL is down $6 so that's definately in play today.

Levels to watch;
X @ $30
CIEN @ $7
SPYs @ 837>846

Realistically I don't think CIEN will hold today. Also watching RIMM and AMZN on AAPL news. Will RIMM rise if their competitor is looking weak, or will they follow suit?

Update 13:40 (08:40US)
Looking like X is going to open up at $31 here. $30 is a very nice entry price. It's forming a double top from yesterday afternoon at the 200MA so I would really like this to pull back and provide a good r:r entry here.

Going to watch this AMZN channel at $49.2-$48.3 and look to trade the breakout as I don't feel comfortable trading this narrow a range.

Update 15:50 (10:50US)
Apple trade:

Shoter term. Waited for the price to break the short term high and went short with volume. Covered at 50MA for +$0.76

AMZN rocketeering at the moment. AA trying to hold ST support at $8.7. X holding at $29 and eager for this to pull back to $30 for a short entry.

Update 16:54 (11:54 US)
X trade:

Short term trade. Shorted at $30.97 to cover at $30.56 for +$0.41. Prior support is new resistance. Caught it just below $30 after a fake to $30.15. Covered at moving average with time and sales support. Was a nice exit as it bounced a bit higher. Has since made a lower high at resistive 50EMA so will look for another entry at $30 later in the day, hopefully this time it will sell more convincingly to $29.

AMZN strong, AAPL consolidating; Internals consolidating but showing weakness; DRYS forming a pennant and looking for a breakout there in next 15 minutes.

Update 18:45 (13:45US)
Market is R I P P I N G !!

Move happened while I was making some dinner. Lots of volume came in and shot this hard as it dropped to slightly lower lows.

I'm sure all the charts look good but these ones look the best to me.

Man the market is still going after these screens!

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-12T16:40:00.007Z

Market getting pounded today. Nothing looking good for a long.

IINA.Z 837
IIND.Z 2148
TRIN.Z 2.4

I was waiting for an entry into WYN around $7.00, but it didn't feel right and has dropped right back to $6.84. I was looking for a bounce at support and 20MA on the daily chart at the $7 mark but it's not giving me an easy entry.

X has sold off hard today, the pullback to the 10MA at 10:20 this morning was a good entry short for a low risk trade. SPY has broken down a short term descending triangle and I would low look for todays resistance to be at 878.

I'm waiting on a trade in XRX with entry around $8.05 and have included the daily on the charts above.

Update 18:15
More selling. S&P 500 has looked pretty nice on the 5 minute intra-day. Quite a few clear setups. The best one is this ascending wedge into resistance. Currently predicting a formation of an ascending triangle with resistance circa 878 as mentioned earlier in the day.

Elsewhere WYN just won't give me the setup I want so I've set an alert on that and will check later. XRX is pulling back nicely

Internals looking a little stronger post lunch but still very bearish, would like to see some volume breaking out over 878. The market could just drift along until next Tuesday morning, where I will be looking to take a position overnight leading into inauguration.

Update 19:45
Selling continues as several stocks make new lows on the day. 500 continues to show continuation patterns. Internals continue their decline.

Cleanest setup of the day goes to AMZN short @ 52.5:

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-09T17:35:00.006Z

Watching AA, DRYS, AXP and RIMM at the moment. TSO also catching my eye.

TSO has had a great run from December but is now approaching old support as resistance at $15.00. I anticipate a pull back here to around $13 soon.

The AA trade I'm waiting for is still looking good around $10.80, where it has formed a double bottom on the intra-day chart. It is currently consolidating in an S/R range between $11 and $10.80 and I am looking for a break and a retest of $11 for an entry. I would also consider scaling in at $10.80.

DRYS continued to explode today, and in the short term is just about to slip from an ascending wedge after not making new highs on the day. I am hesitant to enter because of a pennant which could be penetrated soon too on the short side. It's $16.70 at the moment with some sellers coming in by the looks of things.

TSO and RIMM looking like they are at the end of their run. RIMM especially at $48.

Charts to follow

Update 19:00

Pretty quiet day here, market is range trading and not much coming on the screen. RIMM is attempting to break the overhead on a surge of intra-day volume so I'm watching that.

Elsewhere the stock that keeps on giving (DRYS) is having a nice breakout of the pennant I mentioned earlier.

Nice pop on DRYS here with the fastline providing the bounce. Bit of buying coming in too after the pullback on declining volume.

Let's see if it makes new highs into close.

I'm also watching the $55 area on AMZN, and will enter long if we see a pullback from todays surge at that price.

20:30
Just watched the time and sales of AA and DRYS as the market dumped into the weekend. Profit taking all round by the looks of things.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2009-01-08T12:50:00.005Z

12:50 pm and I'm just sorting out my new monitor for today. Been watching the SPY trade in a consolidation range between 900 and 910 this morning, it's just dropped below it and is down quite a bit now on yesterday. I would like to see further pull backs today before a continuation of the rally as we started the trading year.

AA, KO and RIMM are catching my interest at some key technical levels and I'll post the charts later. Going out for lunch with a mate so should be back for the bell.

Updates to follow..

15:00
Little late back from lunch, uninspiring opening here, waiting for a reversal in a few things. Here's a chart of the SPYs so far today. It's been pretty straight forward, the market is giving some good information today.

Also here's X looking interesting on the daily chart...

There is a nice longer term inverse head and shoulders formation with a resistive neckline at around $42 here. However since December another head and shoulders, this time the bearish formation, has formed on the current upward trendline. That, coupled with the topping at the 50MA make me feel that X could drop to $35 today, and potentially $30 in the medium term. I'm waiting for some volume to come into X, as when it does I think I will take an entry at these levels with a short term target of $40 and higher based on good trade management.

AA is popping off the lows this morning at $10.60. I am hesistant to enter here as it it still very bearish on most timeframes. This new low is also stopping me from considering an entry until I see some reversal action.

Coke (KO) is currently consolidating between $41 and $47 which both represent good entries long and short. In a shorter timeframe it's chopping out a pennant. I would like to trade this channel but only if I get the prices I want.

It was predictable and I was pleased to see RIMM top out at $48 yesterday. I am now looking for a pullback to $43 for an entry based on this chart:

19:50
Market caught a nice double bottom bounce at 897 and has jumped to 907 quite quickly. Waiting to see if it can break this on the third attempt today. Earlier, the market responded unfavourably to an Obama speech, which I was surprised at. I anticipate some strong surges north around the time he takes his seat in the office and I'll be actively seeking trades at that time.

AA is ripping it up at $11.30 after bouncing strongly off $10.60 which was 20 cents lower than where I thought it would jump. Not much volume in it though.

The thing that made me post an update however was DRYS, it has just blasted off in the past hour. If I were in I would probably take a sizeable portion off the table and look for a re-entry at $14.60. There's an hour to go and people will be looking to close out so I think it would be wise. I've spent the past hour and a half on a report so I missed this opportunity, but never fear, the market will provide me with these kinds of moves all the time!

Check that consolidation at the 20MA before some volume came in at it went for gold.

[2009 TRADING AND DAILY ACTION]

2009-01-07T15:31:00.004Z

Happy new year to everybody.

I got back from my holiday refreshed and ready to take on 2009 with my trading. While I was away I read 2 excellent books "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas and "Learn to trade.." by Toni Turner. Douglas' book is brilliant, as I know I have to work on my mental attributes as a trader and this book should provide my with a good start. I'll be buying his first book in the next few days.

The Toni Turner book was a bit more simple in it's content but I really liked it. I was well written and full of quality information, a lot of stuff I didn't really even know about. Hopefully I can apply what I've learned in these books into my trading.

I've also spent the past while checking out my old posts etc, and have now formalised a concise and full trading plan with rules for me to follow. It's mostly trade management based, but also covers position sizing, risk (and accepting it), regularity, entry rules, profit taking, record keeping and a few general principles about the mental parts of my game.

I've also subscribed to iqfeed for quotetracker, and I'm currently trying to learn the features of QT.

Anyway I've been going through some stocks and doing some quick TA. I'm basically looking at a core list of 11 stocks that I'll be trading for the foreseeable future. For reference they are AA, AMZN, AXP, BAC, C, MON, RIG, DRYS, RMBS, TSO and X.

Anyway I'm just going to post the more interesting dailies;

This is the Alcoa chart (AA). I'm writing in my journal that I will consider an entry here at the green horizontal support area of $10.80 if some volume comes in. I would like to see the volume decrease with a pullback to this area before moving off the 20MA. My initial target is $12.

I'm looking for some volume in X before it breaks out above $40 either off the 20MA or the short term trend line. Potentially forming a C&H. A good R:R ratio is at around the $30 area.

[HOLIDAY]

2008-12-20T04:11:00.002Z

Getting some sun over the Christmas break. Will be back trading (and blogging properly) again in early January.

Ho ho ho.

[INTRA-DAY ACTION]

2008-11-20T16:53:00.003Z

Another huge sell off. After a million short signals 2 days ago, C has dropped to $5 and continues to look weak.

A few quality short signals have followed through today, most noticeably C but also TSO which topped at $11 with a channel high and today fell out of that channel hard:

Shorter term in TSO there was a nice double top at the 200ema after a gap down. High quality opportunity.